It’s been a minute since we heard something about the NHL’s revenues, but a report that popped up on Friday appears to indicate things are going quite well for the league.
Marco D’Amico at RG Media reported that the NHL and NHLPA have agreed that, “effective January 30, 2025, the escrow withholding rate will drop from 6% to 0% for the remainder of the season.” D’Amico also reports this may be an indicator that the salary ceiling for the 2025-26 season may go up more than the $92-93M range.
If you recall, the last time there was buzz around the NHL’s cap situation for next year was back in November. During a Hockey Night in Canada broadcast on Nov. 16, Elliotte Friedman reported that the NHL may need to negotiate a much higher cap because the players’ escrow debt from the COVID seasons would be repaid earlier than anticipated. The agreement between the league and players in 2020 expiring would mean the salary cap would go back to being tied to a percentage of league revenues.
And that could push the cap for next season closer to $95M than the $92.4M number NHL commissioner Gary Bettman cited in early December. In his comments in December, Bettman didn’t lock that number, leaving room for the cap to potentially go even higher.
“The cap under the current guidelines in the Collective Bargaining Agreement would go up 5 percent,” Bettman told NHL.com on Dec. 10. “As we look at revenues, we’re going to have discussions with the Players’ Association about escrow levels and whether or not the cap can or should be tweaked a little more on an ongoing basis, but that’s something that we have to really work out with the Players’ Association and we’re having those discussions.”
The current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires following the 2025-26 season and Bettman and the NHLPA were expected to begin speaking soon. I wrote a more about the cap projections in early December after Bettman’s comments.
Blackhawks impact of a higher NHL salary cap
The NHL’s salary cap going up more than expected is… actually not wholly great news for the Chicago Blackhawks.
Could there be more teams at least intrigued by a player on the Blackhawks and (the possibility taking a big contract off Chicago’s books) because more teams will have space to afford a deal? Sure. That’s decent.
But we’ve talked a pretty good amount in this space about the Blackhawks needing to find an elite superstar to play alongside Connor Bedard. A top-four pick in the 2025 NHL Draft could afford the Blackhawks an opportunity to draft a potential gamechanger. The question this coming summer will be if the front office (and their boss and the bosses on the business side of the organ-I-zation) have the patience to continue the rebuild path the Blackhawks are on or if the right opportunity to add a big time player becomes a reality.
The paradox of this portion of a rebuild timeline is that you want to see better results but also need to be patient for prospects to appropriately mature into professional players. It doesn’t appear the fan base is willing to be patient for the likes of Nick Lardis, Oliver Moore, Marek Vanacker, Sacha Boisvert, John Mustard or Jack Pridham to be NHL ready. Fans want to see more wins. And the players do, too.
So… do the Blackhawks rush players at the potential expense of their long-term potential? Or… do the Blackhawks go out into the market with a stockpile of draft capital and very good prospects (no matter what some analysts might rank) and consider weaponizing their cap space to make a bold splash?
If we all agree a big-time move makes sense and the Blackhawks should be in a place now with Connor Bedard in the middle of his second successful NHL season to go big at some point in the not-too-distant future, here’s the complicating factor:
The NHL’s salary ceiling going up more significantly means more teams would be willing and able to entertain a trade for the likes of an Elias Pettersson or JT Miller from the Canucks. And it decreases the likelihood that an elite player like Mikko Rantanen or Mitch Marner actually hits the open market this summer. (My take: spend the money in free agency, keep the assets if you can.)
And with free agents having the ultimate choice in their destination and some players having no-trade and/or no-move clauses on their contracts, the Blackhawks would need to do a better job selling its situation to players outside the organization than they have to their fans this season.