NEWSLETTER
We have officially entered the Twilight Zone: FiveThirtyEight is giving the Bulls credit.
Throughout free agency, FiveThirtyEight has been keeping track of free agent deals with something they like to call the CARMELO Model. In their own words, the model “lays out estimates of what a player should earn in future years based on advanced statistics and aging projections.”
Basically, the model takes a player’s wins above replacement and lines that up among other comparable signings over the years, then determines their true value.
All three of the Bulls recent signings provide more production than what their contract says they’re worth, which, yeah, is a good thing for Chicago. In recent history, Bulls fans have gotten accustomed to the front office overpaying for talent (aka: the Jabari Parker signing last season), but this time around the Bulls, according to FiveThirtyEight at least, have won the money battle.
Young is projected to be providing the Bulls $5 million more in production on the court than what the team is actually paying for him. In comparison to other similar players, Young is above the 50th percentile in vitals and practically all defense/rebounding categories.
The biggest difference that FiveThirtyEight points out though came with the Satoransky deal. Over his three-year stretch, Satoransky has a deal with $30 million for the Bulls, but considering the team’s lackluster point guard play over the past several years, Satoransky is slated to be giving a market value of around 17.3 million per year over the next three seasons. Overall, FiveThirtyEight thinks Satoransky will put up a $52 million worth over his time with the Bulls. Honestly, that’s a bit hard to believe with the possible emergence of Coby White, but if that holds true, it’s a steal for the Bulls.
The logistics of Luke Kornet’s deal have yet to be sorted out, but we can definitely assume the Bulls will come out on top in this deal as well. Over the next two-seasons, Kornet is projected to provide $23 million in worth, but it’s assumed that he will be getting only around $5 million per year with the Bulls having to possible use their cap exception of $4.76 million to sign him.
I’m not going to lie, all those numbers sound nice to me. By no means do I think you should go hang your hat on this CARMELO Model, but it isn’t a bad way to think about these free agent signings. The Bulls have found value in all the right places, getting improvement on the court and setting themselves up well in future free agency. In yesterday bullets, we talked more about why these recent contracts have actually positioned Chicago well to clear a good amount of cap space two offseasons from now.
Anyway, I totally recommend you check out this FiveThirtyEight article and mess with the CARMELO Model to take a closer look at any free agents of interest. Again, I know there are ways to pick this apart, but it’s an intriguing way to determine potential value.
And, hey, it’s fun to be optimistic for a little.
