NEWSLETTER
Given the Bulls’ current assets, remaining strength of schedule, and general long-term plans, the arrival of trade season has been on our minds a lot here lately – specifically with respect to Kris Dunn.
After all, a Kris Dunn trade prior to the February 6th deadline felt almost inevitable before the season started. But just a couple months later, Dunn (2nd in the league in steals) has proven to be one of the lone bright spots on an otherwise tumultuous Bulls roster. Indeed, we’ve already wondered if he may ultimately provide more value to Chicago on his remaining deal than he’d likely fetch in a trade on the open market,* and we’re still thinking that today.
*Sure, Dunn’s improvement has likely been noticed outside of Chicago, but I’m still not convinced there’s a team out there willing to deliver the sort of return (a late-first round pick or a legitimate rotational wing piece) the Bulls would require.
Of course, (1) trading Dunn now or (2) letting him play out his current contract aren’t the only two options available. Given his relative youth and recently showcased defensive upside, the thought of keeping Dunn around beyond his current deal has become that much more appealing.
NBC Sports Chicago’s K.C. Johnson addressed a possible extension in his latest mailbag, and it’s a good place to start:
Dunn makes $5.3 million this season and has a qualifying offer of $7.1 million. Marcus Smart and Patrick Beverley, two players with whom Dunn has drawn mild comparisons to, each make $13 million annually. Dunn isn’t worth that much in my world, but those numbers give you an idea of the range. I’d guess a three-year deal in the $27-30 million range could be realistic.
As a restricted free agent, Kris Dunn’s fate will ultimately be controlled by the Chicago Bulls this offseason. If he accepts the qualifying offer (unlikely), he’ll simply be under control for one more season at $7.1M. If he rejects it, he’ll enter the market as a restricted free agent, giving the Bulls the right to match any offer he receives from another team. Of course, the Bulls can avoid that by offering Dunn the sort of deal that dissuades him from testing the waters (and taking on some risk) in the first place.
However, estimating his expected value to the market is still going to be tough. Players like Marcus Smart and Patrick Beverley do feel like useful comps, but Johnson is right to say that Dunn’s not worth quite as much as either guy.
All of which is to say, a team like the Bulls should be able to land Dunn at significantly less than $13 million a year, making Johnson’s $9-10M estimate look quite reasonable … that is, in a vacuum. But given a relatively weak crop of impending free agents, several teams might be willing to more aggressively target a young, defensive anchor like Dunn this offseason, making things tougher on the Bulls.
Indeed, Dunn could be a starter on several teams across the league right now, and that’s not limited to any one particular type (rebuilding squads might have an interest in securing a 26-year-old Dunn as part of their broader plan, meanwhile, contenders might be fighting for scraps that give them an extra boost in an area of need).
If the Bulls do plan to keep Dunn around past the trade deadline, they should immediately consider extending him (otherwise, they’re wasting an opportunity to get something in return). And if they’re considering extending him, they must recognize the potentially tough competition and adjust their offer accordingly.
How much Dunn is worth ($9-10M in AAV?), how much other teams are willing to spend (more given the scarcity on the free-agent market?), and how much the Bulls want to keep him around (what’s the expected trajectory of the team by season’s end?) will be tested over the coming year. And it’s likely a more important decision than we all expected.
Michael Cerami contributed to this post.
