The Chicago Bulls have a lot on their plate, and stuffed somewhere between the peas and carrots is the question of an extension for their number one player, Zach LaVine.
This October, once the 2019-20 season comes to an official close in Orlando, the league will experience one of its strangest offseason yet. Not only is it currently slated to be just a little over one month long, but nobody knows exactly what the salary cap will look like due to problems caused by the ongoing pandemic. Decision-making will surely be difficult, especially when it comes to free agency and contract negotiations. And while the Bulls may not be in a position to sign highly-touted players this fall, they will have to decide whether or not to do business with the key member of their young core.
As ESPN’s Bobby Marks discusses in his latest evaluation of the Chicago Bulls, LaVine will be eligible for an extension on October 18th. While striking a rookie scale extension deal with Lauri Markkanen – who is one season away from restricted free agency – is probably higher up on Arturas Karnisovas’ to-do list, LaVine’s status is still a conversation the new front office has to have.
We know LaVine’s extension would be three years at roughly $76 million (*if you’re curious about why that is the case, please see the explanation I included at the bottom of this post). Considering LaVine’s youth and his recent output, that sounds quite reasonable. However, that doesn’t mean it’s what LaVine or the new Bulls front office would necessarily prefer.
Marks presented several questions that LaVine and the Bulls will have to consider before making this decision, and we might as well address those:
For starters, LaVine has been very open recently about his frustration with playing for a losing team. The guy hasn’t even come close to sniffing a playoff appearance over his first six seasons in the league, and with his prime years right around the corner, it’s in his best interest to put himself in a winning situation ASAP. A new front office in Chicago could mean better days ahead, but it could also mean more rebuilding. LaVine doesn’t just need to be reassured the Bulls can turn things around; he needs to be convinced they can turn things around relatively quickly.
Additionally, if your LaVine, why not bet on yourself? Security and guaranteed money is great, but at the rate he’s playing, another team could fork over an even sexier contract in 2022 when he’s an unrestricted free agent. He’s already locked in some serious cash throughout his career, and that always affects the risk/reward calculus.
We should also consider the front office’s approach to these possible negotiations. Let’s not assume Karnisovas and Eversley find it in their best interest to extend LaVine. How they envision this roster moving forward is a complete unknown. And as nice as it is to have a player who can drop 25 points with his eyes closed, it’s also nice to dangle him in the trade market. If an extension isn’t reached, as Marks writes, “LaVine would enter the 2021-22 season on an expiring contract and be one of the most sought after names before the 2022 trade deadline.” Silly as the reports may be, we know certain teams already have a legitimate interest in LaVine’s services. The Bulls have to already be curious about what the best possible return for LaVine could look like.
Also, there’s the whole Jim Boylen thing we should keep in mind. If he sticks around, LaVine could be less eager to sign an extension, and I don’t think any of us would be shocked to see him eventually push himself out of Chicago. I mean, after all, read what NBC Sports Chicago’s K.C. Johnson wrote in his latest mailbag when discussing LaVine and Lauri Markkanen’s possible displeasure: “Neither player possesses a rock-the-boat personality. But I do think the LaVine situation, in particular, is worth monitoring.” Hm, interesting.
If you ask me, I don’t see an extension in the cards (at least, not yet). Both parties are dealing with too much unknown and waiting to strike a deal would offer more flexibility all around. The Bulls just aren’t ready to make any kind of longterm commitment to a player of LaVine’s caliber, and LaVine isn’t ready to make a long-term commitment to a team of the Bulls caliber. Maybe someday, that will change.
*Players on a basic contract (like the four-year, $78 million contract LaVine signed two years ago) are eligible to sign an extension two years to the day of signing the original one. The max-extension a player on that contract can sign is up to five years, but that includes the years remaining on the current contract. In other words, if LaVine signed an extension this offseason, he could only do it for three seasons because he has two seasons still left on his current contract. As for the finances, he is allowed to make 120% annually of the money he was making in his final season. To put that in other words, he is making 19.5 mil, so he can now make 23.4 mil in his first season of the extension. Then, he is eligible for an 8% raise each year of the contract. Thus, we get the 25.3 million in year 2 and the 27.1 million in year 3 of the extension. Class is over. You may leave.