NEWSLETTER
Lauri Markkanen has been wandering between Buttsville and Breakout Town for the last two seasons.
Chicago’s 2017 draft pick suffered the worst season of his career in Year 3, which is basically the exact opposite of what an organization wants to see out of a once-perceived All-Star level talent. At the same time, the Bulls organization has been so dysfunctional over the past few years that it’s hard to find exactly where to place all the blame. We know the previous regime deserves a good chunk of the criticism, but Markkanen can not get a free pass either. High-level talent does not just drop from 18.7 points and 9.0 rebounds per game to 14.7 points and 6.3 rebounds per game because of poor management. A switch has failed to flip, or (at least) stay on, for The Finnisher.
In several ways, that is what Billy Donovan is here to accomplish. The Bulls front office hired themselves an experienced head coach with the hope that he could (1) help them put players in a position to succeed and (2) get a better read for each player’s true potential. Markkanen has shown some truly great flashes, the best of which came in February of 2019, when he averaged 26.0 points and 12.2 rebounds per game. The big man led the Bulls to a .500 record that month. While one wants to believe those kinds of stints don’t just come and go, the further we get from that occurrence, the more it feels like that is the case.
At 23-years-old, though, there is still plenty of room for a breakout. In fact, ESPN’s Zach Lowe put Markkanen, and frontcourt teammate Wendell Carter Jr., at the top of his “Five Most Intriguing Players for the 2020-21 Season” list. Does this mean he expects Markkanen or Carter Jr. to experience a breakout? Not exactly. But it does hint that those in NBA circles are nowhere near ready to give up on them.
For Markkanen, specifically, Lowe didn’t fail to address the concerns. While he included circumstance as part of the reason Markkanen has struggled, he made it plenty clear that he too believes Markkanen must come out and prove he deserves to be a bigger part of the gameplan.
Here is a snippet:
Now healthy, it is on Markkanen to prove he deserves more touches. It starts with living up to his billing as a shooter. He has hit 35.6% on 3s — average. He does not inspire enough frantic closeouts or extra rotations that leave the defense naked elsewhere.
He has been almost unbelievably bad from midrange: 30% last season, never above 39% on long 2s. Among 260 players who attempted at least 300 shots last season, only 28 underperformed their expected effective field-goal percentage — based on the location of each shot and the nearest defender — by a larger margin than Markkanen, per Second Spectrum data.
The Bulls new brass has seemed plenty invested in turning around Markkanen’s trajectory. General Manager Marc Eversley expressed excitement to work with the fourth-year forward, and Arturas Karnisovas completely revamped the player development department. However, none of that means this new organization isn’t one game away from selling their Markkanen stock.
I would not want to be them (well … I’ll gladly take their salary, but not the deciding on the Markkanen part). This is not an easy decision to make, especially when we consider that Markkanen is up for a rookie-scale extension this offseason. Both Markkanen and Karnisovas expressed their desire to get a deal done by the time the deadline hits on December 21st. Although, no papers have been signed yet. Instead, Markkanen has played two preseason games where he has mostly underwhelmed. The preseason is not the right time to truly evaluate a player’s potential, but with a possible deal on the table, it does seem like Markkanen would have more of an incentive to ball out.
• Game 1: 13 points (5-8 FG, 3-5 3PT), 5 rebounds, 1 assists, 2 steals, 4 turnovers
• Game 2: 3 points (1-10 FG, 0-5 3PT), 7 rebounds, 1 assists, 1 steal, 2 turnovers
Again, we’re talking about preseason games after a nine-month-long hiatus, so Markkanen deserves some slack. And, all things considered, I thought he played better in Game 2 than the box score showed. Neither of these performances, though, are going to move any kind of needle for him in the eyes of his coaching staff or front office. The opposite has actually happened, as there are already some rumors/suggestions that he could be tested out on the bench over these next few preseason games. I doubt that trickles over into the regular season, but doing so could signify a shorter leash for him once we get there.
The point I’m trying to make is that the time is now. Even though he might be only 23-years-old, this is his chance to save his Bulls career. Preseason games – as unimpactful as they may be – carry some extra weight for a guy like Markkanen. The Bulls need to hope he can use these minutes to get on the right track and have a bounceback season. Otherwise, the two sides are probably going to have say their goodbyes.
