NEWSLETTER
Let me keep my reaction to Patrick Williams missing the remainder of the regular season as PG-rated as possible: THIS FREAKIN’ STINKS!!!!
REPORT: Patrick Williams Will Miss the Rest of the Regular Seasonhttps://t.co/R8tK2kktKv pic.twitter.com/MZz7r2Dapn
— Bleacher Nation Bulls (@BN_Bulls) October 29, 2021
While Williams may not have been off to the most explosive start in his sophomore season, his presence in Summer League and role in this new-look Chicago Bulls starting lineup made it feel like a breakout could be on the horizon. And, even if Williams struggled to make that significant leap, Chicago was at least in line to get another pivotal year of experience and development into their high-upside No. 4-overall pick. Now, all of that potential will remain sidelined as long as Williams does, and it puts the 4-1 Bulls into a difficult situation.
When Arturas Karnisovas and Marc Eversley redesigned this roster over the summer, they put a lot of weight on Williams’ shoulders. Their belief in the new regime’s first lottery pick was strong enough to name him the starting power forward in a lineup that lacked proven defensive talent. Their belief was also strong enough to prioritize depth in other areas of the roster. A rotation full of guards and young wings lacks any kind of true size, as Williams is only one of four players who stands 6’8″ or above. Two of the remaining three players are traditional centers in Nikola Vucevic and Tony Bradley. The other, Marko Simonovic, is an unknown NBA big man who is currently stationed at the Windy City Bulls’ training camp. So where do the Bulls go from here?
A (Kind of) New Starting Lineup
The initial change to the starting fives feels rather simple. With the team’s lack of frontcourt pieces, DeMar DeRozan has already been tagged as the backup power forward. The four-time All-Star has the athleticism and length to man the four in the small-ball era. We saw him play 69 percent of his minutes at the position with the San Antonio Spurs last year where he put together one of his better playmaking seasons. Chicago will likely move him back to playing the strong majority of his minutes here while sliding one of their several versatile bench wings into the small forward slot.
Our eye should immediately go toward Javonte Green. While Williams was working his way back from an ankle injury during the preseason, Green used three preseason games in the starting lineup to earn the 15.8 minutes he has averaged in the first five games of the season. As a high-energy player who knows to focus primarily on the dirty work, he should be able to carry a slightly bigger workload without hampering much of the team’s overall competitiveness.
Speaking of Which …
In fact, with that in mind, let me express the following sentiment: While this injury news hurts a team with defensive question marks and light frontcourt depth, Williams is arguably the starter who least impacts the win-loss column. To be clear, that is not a slam on Williams. Having him in the picture raises this team’s long-term ceiling, but how strongly it impacts the team’s immediate success is a fair question. The guy is still an inexperienced player who was viewed as this group’s “5th” starter. His usage role has sat at just 8.2 percent so far this season, which ranks in the league’s lowest percentile, per Cleaning the Glass. Out of all players to have to replace in the starting lineup, Williams might as well be the easiest at this point in the season, which I think is an important note to consider.
Of course, that does not mean in two weeks’ time we will not find ourselves missing what Williams brings to the table. Again, taking his size and athleticism out of the lineup can still prove to be a brutal blow in certain matchups, even if this team has embraced playing small thus far. We also can not forget that his absence completely messes up the rotation. With DeRozan now starting at the four instead of filling the backup role, and Green now clocking minutes with the starters, head coach Billy Donovan is going to have to ask for more from a handful of players. Cue Derrick Jones Jr.
Who Takes on a Bigger Role?
Jones has only clocked roughly two minutes in one regular-season game so far this season, but I have to imagine he gets tagged to help in the frontcourt off the bench. While he might be too thin to hold his own against certain fours, his 7’0″ wingspan can help provide a level of rim protection the team can not get elsewhere on the roster.
Head coach Billy Donovan has already mentioned Jones as a player to which he could turn as Williams hits the injury report.
Donovan on life without PWil: "I think Derrick. I think Javonte. Obviously Alex, we’ve played smaller with 4 guards. A lot is going to be teams and matchups. I thought Lonzo when we were small did a pretty good on Randle, made his postups difficult. All those are viable options"
— K.C. Johnson (@KCJHoop) October 29, 2021
As Donovan states, another option with the starters could be Alex Caruso. The 27-year-old defensive hound has already averaged 28.9 minutes a night off the bench, and we know a lineup of Ball-Caruso-LaVine-DeRozan-Vucevic has its perks. The five-man combination has a +30.1 (which still demonstrates the upside despite being inflated by small sample size), per Basketball-Reference, and it has often been the group Donovan turns to in crunch time. Disrupting Caruso’s position in the second unit, however, feels like a bad idea. The Bulls bench is already so thin, and they need his veteran savvy to play alongside those younger reserves.
Outside Options?
Regardless, a small team just got smaller, and that is problematic. The Bulls have already ranked dead-last in rebounds per game, and they allow opponents to score the 9th-most points in the paint per game. The defense has been better than advertised in several ways, but the team must make significant improvements around the rim. Donovan appeared to notice that on Thursday, and he turned to Tony Bradley over Alize Johnson at center in the second half. I expect to see more of that in the coming games.
I also expect to see the Bulls become even more active in the trade/buy-out market. Remember, the team has a $5.0 million trade exception from the Daniel Theis sign-and-trade this offseason. The option to also gain a $3.7 million Disabled Player Exception is on the table as well, as Bobby Marks points out below.
For Chicago to be granted a Disabled Player Exception ($3.7M), the league would need to deem Williams out until mid-June.
Chicago is $3M below the luxury tax and would need to waive a player in order to open up a roster spot. https://t.co/FzFLNyY8cx
— Bobby Marks (@BobbyMarks42) October 29, 2021
The team sits at a full 15-man unit with both two-way contracts filled, so unless they send a contract out while taking one in, the team will have to waive someone to make a new addition work.
All right, that’s all I got for now, folks. I’m going to continue to process this news while eating a big tub of cookie dough ice cream and crying into a pillow with Patrick Williams’ face on it. Don’t call. Don’t text.
