NEWSLETTER
Zach LaVine – who is fresh off his second All-Star appearance and just signed a five-year, $215 million contract – is nothing more than an average starter. At least … that’s how FiveThirtyEight sees it.
The popular stats-driven website released its latest batch of Player Projections for the 2022-23 season, and I have to say … it’s left me pretty dumbfounded. Each player’s profile comes packaged with plenty of interesting numbers, as well as a category distinction and a five-year market value estimate. Not only is LaVine filed under the “average starter” category, but he was also given a five-year market value of just $64.0 million. And he isn’t the only Bulls star to receive this shocking treatment.
DeMar DeRozan – another “average starter” – was deemed worthy of just $25.4 million over the next five seasons. They also see his wins above replacement dropping significantly this year from last year’s 5.8 to 2.3 (at least his value is the tiniest bit more understandable due to his age, which the algorithm does account for over the next five seasons … but, still, this feels off).
All of this becomes even more bizarre when we consider both Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso were given much higher marks than their All-Star colleagues. Each player was handed a “Borderline All-Star’ designation to go along with a significantly higher market value. FiveThirtyEight lists Ball’s five-year worth at $136.8 million(!), while Caruso sits at $93.3 million.
As much as I love to see those two getting their flowers, I think we can all agree neither should currently be held to a higher standard than either LaVine or DeRozan, which leads me to this question: WHAT THE F*** IS GOING ON!?
I think it’s fair to say that advanced analytics don’t always love high-volume scorers. And I think it’s relatively clear in this case that FiveThirtyEight’s algorithm heavily favors defensive impact. To be sure, nobody is saying that shouldn’t be something more highly regarded in league circles, but that’s also simply not how the NBA operates. Teams invest in elite shooting and the ability to create offense. LaVine and DeRozan are two of the best pure bucket-getters in the NBA, and they already have the All-Star selections to prove it.
As much as we would love for both players to add a plus-level performance on defense to their Basketball-Reference page, their inability to do so doesn’t mean they are necessarily less valuable than those who can. Indeed, both are so freakin’ good at scoring the basketball that it almost makes up for their deficiencies on the other end of the court.
If it makes you feel any better, LaVine and DeRozan aren’t the only ones to receive a confusing label. Kevin Durant and Immanuel Quickley are both listed as “borderline All-Stars,” Bradley Beal and Khris Middleton are each “average starters,” and LaMelo Ball is an “MVP Candidate” while Jalen Green is a “project.” Yeah … it’s all weird.
Having said that, FiveThirtyEight’s profiles do share some interesting player comparisons and projected stats for the next several seasons, so I recommend you give that all a look through their database here.
