North Carolina vs. Duke Prediction: Spread, Total Points, Moneyline Picks – Saturday, March 4, 2023
Two streaking teams meet when the North Carolina Tar Heels (19-11, 11-8 ACC) host the Duke Blue Devils (22-8, 13-6 ACC) on Saturday, March 4, 2023 at 6:30 PM ET. The Tar Heels are 4.5-point favorites and put their three-game win streak on the line against the Blue Devils, winners of five straight. The matchup’s point total is 143.
North Carolina vs. Duke Odds
- North Carolina odds to win: -186
- Duke odds to win: +157
- Spread: North Carolina (-4.5)
- Total: 143
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Game Time and Information
- Date: Saturday, March 4, 2023
- Time: 6:30 PM ET
- TV: ESPN
- Where: Chapel Hill, North Carolina
- Venue: Dean Smith Center
Who Will Win North Carolina vs. Duke?
North Carolina and Duke Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread
North Carolina is 9-13 against the spread when favored by 4.5 points or more this season.
Duke is winless against the spread (0-1) when playing as at least a 4.5-point underdog.
The two teams average a combined 6.2 more points per game (149.2) than this game’s total of 143 points.
North Carolina and Duke have seen their opponents average a combined 7.4 fewer points per game than the point total of 143 set in this outing.
North Carolina’s average point total in outings this season is 148.7, 5.7 points higher than the over/under in this game.
The average total for Blue Devils games this season is 6.8 fewer points than the point total of 143 for this outing.
The Tar Heels have gone 10-20-0 ATS this season.
The Blue Devils’ ATS record is 11-19-0 this season.
North Carolina Stats & Insights
North Carolina averages 77.1 points per game (56th in college basketball) while giving up 71.6 per contest (227th in college basketball). It has a +164 scoring differential overall and outscores opponents by 5.5 points per game.
North Carolina wins the rebound battle by an average of 5.2 boards. It is grabbing 36.9 rebounds per game (sixth in college basketball) compared to its opponents’ 31.7 per outing.
The Tar Heels hit 7 three-pointers per game (222nd in college basketball) at a 31.2% rate (330th in college basketball), compared to the 6.6 their opponents make while shooting 33.2% from deep.
North Carolina puts up 96.8 points per 100 possessions (104th in college basketball), while giving up 90 points per 100 possessions (136th in college basketball).
Offensively, the Tar Heels have performed better at home this year, averaging 79.8 points per game, compared to 70.2 per game away from home.
Duke Stats & Insights
Duke is outscoring opponents by 8.1 points per game, with a +243 scoring differential overall. It puts up 72.1 points per game (174th in college basketball) and allows 64 per contest (32nd in college basketball).
Duke prevails in the rebound battle by an average of 8.4 boards. It records 36.2 rebounds per game (11th in college basketball) compared to its opponents’ 27.8.
Duke connects on 6.9 three-pointers per game (234th in college basketball) compared to its opponents’ 6.2. It shoots 32.9% from deep, and its opponents shoot 31%.
Duke ranks 135th in college basketball with 95.5 points scored per 100 possessions, and 37th defensively with 84.8 points conceded per 100 possessions.
The Blue Devils score 76.7 points per game at home, and 68.7 away.
North Carolina Key Players to Watch
Caleb Love leads the Tar Heels in scoring, tallying 16.9 points per game to go with 3.7 rebounds and 2.8 assists.
Armando Bacot leads North Carolina in rebounding, averaging 10.8 per game, while RJ Davis leads the team in assists, distributing an average of 3.2 in each contest.
Love makes more threes per game than any other member of the Tar Heels, knocking down shots from beyond the arc at a clip of 2.3 per contest.
Rechon ‘Leaky’ Black is North Carolina’s leader in steals, averaging 1.3 steals per game, while Bacot leads them in blocks with one per contest.
Duke Key Players to Watch
Kyle Filipowski collects 14.8 points and nine rebounds per game for the Blue Devils, making him the top scorer and rebounder on the team.
Duke’s assist leader is Jeremy Roach with 3.3 per game. He also scores 13.2 points per game and grabs 2.4 rebounds per game.
Dariq Whitehead hits 1.5 three-pointers per game, the most on the Blue Devils.
Duke’s leader in steals is Filipowski with 1.2 per game, and its leader in blocks is Dereck Lively II with 2.3 per game.
North Carolina vs. Duke Prediction
- Pick ATS:
- Pick OU:
North Carolina 72, Duke 71
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How to Bet on North Carolina vs. Duke
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