Virginia vs. Louisville Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Saturday, March 4, 2023
The Louisville Cardinals (4-26, 2-17 ACC) are heavy underdogs (+18.5) as they attempt to break a 12-game road slide when they take on the No. 13 Virginia Cavaliers (22-6, 14-5 ACC) on Saturday, March 4, 2023 at John Paul Jones Arena. The game airs at 2:00 PM ET on ESPN2. The over/under is 127.5 for the matchup.
Virginia vs. Louisville Odds
- Virginia odds to win: -2667
- Louisville odds to win: +1188
- Spread: Virginia (-18.5)
- Total: 127.5
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Game Time and Information
- Date: Saturday, March 4, 2023
- Time: 2:00 PM ET
- TV: ESPN2
- Where: Charlottesville, Virginia
- Venue: John Paul Jones Arena
Who Will Win Virginia vs. Louisville?
Virginia and Louisville Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread
In games it has played as at least 18.5-point favorites this season, Virginia is 1-3 against the spread.
Louisville is a perfect 2-0 against the spread when an underdog by 18.5 points or more this year.
The two teams average a combined 4.5 more points per game (132) than this matchup’s total of 127.5 points.
Opponents of the two teams average a combined 8.7 more points per game (136.2) than this matchup’s over/under of 127.5 points.
The average total in Virginia’s games this season is 0.9 more points than the over/under of 127.5 in this game.
The average point total for the Cardinals this season is 12.3 points higher than this game’s over/under.
The Cavaliers are 11-16-1 ATS this season.
So far this season, the Cardinals have compiled a 12-18-0 record against the spread.
Virginia Stats & Insights
Virginia outscores opponents by 7.4 points per game (scoring 67.9 per game to rank 276th in college basketball while giving up 60.5 per contest to rank ninth in college basketball) and has a +208 scoring differential overall.
Virginia grabs 29.6 rebounds per game (293rd in college basketball) compared to the 29 of its opponents.
The Cavaliers connect on 7.1 three-pointers per game (215th in college basketball) compared to their opponents’ 7.2. They shoot 36% from deep while their opponents hit 34.6% from long range.
Virginia averages 98.2 points per 100 possessions (68th in college basketball), while allowing 87.4 points per 100 possessions (73rd in college basketball).
The Cavaliers are posting 68.2 points per game when playing at home. When playing on the road, they are averaging 65.7 points per contest.
Louisville Stats & Insights
Louisville has a -346 scoring differential, falling short by 11.6 points per game. It is putting up 64.1 points per game, 339th in college basketball, and is allowing 75.7 per contest to rank 325th in college basketball.
Louisville ranks 273rd in the nation at 30.1 rebounds per game. That’s similar to the 31.1 its opponents average.
Louisville makes 6.4 three-pointers per game (286th in college basketball), 1.9 fewer than its opponents. It is shooting 33.2% from deep (240th in college basketball) and its opponents are shooting 35.5%.
Louisville ranks 340th in college basketball with 85.6 points scored per 100 possessions, and 356th defensively with 101 points conceded per 100 possessions.
The Cardinals are scoring more points at home (66 per game) than on the road (64.8).
Virginia Key Players to Watch
The Cavaliers scoring leader is Armaan Franklin, who averages 12.4 per contest to go with 4.2 rebounds and 1.3 assists.
Jayden Gardner leads Virginia in rebounding, averaging 5.5 per game, while Kihei Clark leads the team in assists, distributing an average of 5.7 in each contest.
The Cavaliers get the most three-point shooting production out of Franklin, who knocks down two threes per game.
The Virginia steals leader is Reece Beekman, who averages 1.6 takeaways per game, while its blocks leader is Kadin Shedrick, who compiles 1.2 rejections per contest.
Louisville Key Players to Watch
The Cardinals’ El Ellis racks up enough points (17.8 per game) and assists (4.4 per game) to top the team’s leaderboards.
Brandon Huntley-Hatfield grabs 5.5 rebounds per game (he also scores 6.7 points per game and adds 0.5 assists per game) which puts him at the top of the Louisville rebounding leaderboard.
Ellis makes 1.9 three-pointers per game, the most on the Cardinals.
Louisville’s leader in steals is Ellis (0.9 per game), and its leader in blocks is Huntley-Hatfield (0.8 per game).
Virginia vs. Louisville Prediction
- Pick ATS:
- Pick OU:
Virginia 77, Louisville 57
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How to Bet on Virginia vs. Louisville
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