Florida vs. LSU Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Saturday, March 4, 2023

March 4, 2023, by Andy Molitor College Basketball Predictions

The LSU Tigers (13-17, 2-15 SEC) visit the Florida Gators (15-15, 8-9 SEC) after losing eight straight road games. The Gators are favored by 7.5 points in the matchup, which begins at 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, March 4, 2023. The over/under is set at 144.5 for the matchup.

Florida vs. LSU Odds

Florida odds to win: -342
LSU odds to win: +268
Spread: Florida (-7.5)
Total: 144.5

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Game Time and Information

Date: Saturday, March 4, 2023
Time: 6:00 PM ET
TV: SEC Network
Where: Gainesville, Florida
Venue: Exactech Arena at the Stephen C. O’Connell Center

Who Will Win Florida vs. LSU?

Florida and LSU Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread

In games this season it was favored by 7.5 points or more, Florida has a 6-5 record against the spread.

When it has played as at least a 7.5-point underdog this season, LSU is 2-4-1 against the spread.

The Gators and the Tigers combine to average 5.2 fewer points per game than the over/under of 144.5 set for this matchup.

Opponents of these two teams have averaged a combined 139.1 points per game, 5.4 fewer than the over/under for this game.

Florida’s average point total in matchups this year is 140.5, four points fewer than the over/under in this game.

Tigers games this year have averaged a total of 137.8 points, 6.7 fewer than the point total in this matchup.

The Gators have a 14-16-0 record against the spread this season.

The Tigers’ ATS record is 9-20-1 this season.

Florida Stats & Insights

Florida’s +94 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by 3.1 points per game) is a result of scoring 71.8 points per game (181st in college basketball) while allowing 68.7 per outing (134th in college basketball).

Florida falls short in the rebound battle by an average of 2.4 boards. It is pulling down 32 rebounds per game (163rd in college basketball) compared to its opponents’ 34.4 per outing.

The Gators knock down 6.6 three-pointers per game (266th in college basketball) at a 32.1% rate (300th in college basketball), compared to the 6 their opponents make while shooting 32.1% from beyond the arc.

Florida scores 92.5 points per 100 possessions (218th in college basketball), while giving up 88.5 points per 100 possessions (100th in college basketball).

In home games, the Gators are averaging 12.7 more points per game (77.6) than they are in road games (64.9).

LSU Stats & Insights

LSU has been outscored by 2.9 points per game (posting 67.5 points per game, 287th in college basketball, while conceding 70.4 per outing, 189th in college basketball) and has a -87 scoring differential.

The 30.8 rebounds per game LSU accumulates rank 241st in the nation. Their opponents grab 31.2.

LSU connects on 7.5 three-pointers per game (175th in college basketball) at a 33.7% rate (214th in college basketball), compared to the 8.1 its opponents make, shooting 34.3% from deep.

LSU averages 90.1 points per 100 possessions on offense (269th in college basketball), and concedes 94 points per 100 possessions (255th in college basketball).

The Tigers average 69.3 points per game at home, and 61.9 on the road.

Florida Key Players to Watch

The Gators leader in points and rebounds is Colin Castleton, who scores 16 points and grabs 7.7 rebounds per game.

Kyle Lofton leads Florida in assists, averaging 3.4 per game while also scoring 8.8 points per contest.

The Gators get the most three-point shooting production out of Will Richard, who makes 1.6 threes per game.

Lofton is Florida’s leader in steals, averaging 1.1 steals per game, while Castleton leads them in blocks with three per contest.

LSU Key Players to Watch

K.J. Williams records 17.3 points and 7.5 rebounds per game for the Tigers, making him the top scorer and rebounder on the squad.

LSU’s assist leader is Justice Hill with three per game. He also records 6.1 points per game and adds 1.8 rebounds per game.

Adam Miller is consistent from deep and leads the Tigers with 2.3 made threes per game.

Williams is at the top of the LSU steals and blocks leaderboards with 1.2 steals per game and 0.9 blocks per game.