Purdue vs. Illinois Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Sunday, March 5, 2023
The Illinois Fighting Illini (20-10, 11-8 Big Ten) are 6.5-point underdogs as they try to break a four-game road slide when they visit the No. 5 Purdue Boilermakers (25-5, 14-5 Big Ten) on Sunday, March 5, 2023 at Mackey Arena. The game airs at 12:30 PM ET on FOX. The matchup has an over/under of 140.
Purdue vs. Illinois Odds
- Purdue odds to win: -319
- Illinois odds to win: +254
- Spread: Purdue (-6.5)
- Total: 140
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Game Time and Information
- Date: Sunday, March 5, 2023
- Time: 12:30 PM ET
- TV: FOX
- Where: West Lafayette, Indiana
- Venue: Mackey Arena
Who Will Win Purdue vs. Illinois?
Purdue and Illinois Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread
When it has played as at least 6.5-point favorites this season, Purdue is 7-12 against the spread.
These teams average a combined 147.8 points per game, 7.8 more points than the over/under of 140 set for this matchup.
Opponents of these two teams have averaged a combined 128.5 points per game, 11.5 fewer than the over/under in this game.
Purdue’s average point total in matchups this season is 135.3, 4.7 points below the over/under in this game.
The average total for Fighting Illini games this year is one more point than the point total of 140 for this outing.
The Boilermakers are 12-17-1 against the spread this season.
So far this year, the Fighting Illini have put together a 17-13-0 record against the spread.
Purdue Stats & Insights
Purdue outscores opponents by 10.9 points per game (scoring 73.1 per game to rank 145th in college basketball while allowing 62.2 per contest to rank 18th in college basketball) and has a +326 scoring differential overall.
Purdue is eighth in the nation at 36.7 rebounds per game. That’s 12.5 more than the 24.2 its opponents average.
The Boilermakers connect on 6.9 three-pointers per game (235th in college basketball) compared to their opponents’ 6.3. They shoot 32.7% from deep while their opponents hit 31% from long range.
Purdue ranks 33rd in college basketball with 100.4 points scored per 100 possessions, and 43rd in college basketball defensively with 85.5 points conceded per 100 possessions.
Offensively, the Boilermakers have performed better at home this year, posting 76.3 points per game, compared to 67.3 per game on the road.
Illinois Stats & Insights
Illinois’ +254 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by 8.4 points per game) is a result of putting up 74.7 points per game (112th in college basketball) while allowing 66.3 per contest (70th in college basketball).
Illinois is 16th in the nation at 35.9 rebounds per game. That’s 5.7 more than the 30.2 its opponents average.
Illinois hits 7.7 three-pointers per game (139th in college basketball) at a 30.9% rate (337th in college basketball), compared to the 6 per game its opponents make, at a 33.4% rate.
Illinois scores 94.8 points per 100 possessions (155th in college basketball), while giving up 84 points per 100 possessions (23rd in college basketball).
The Fighting Illini are putting up more points at home (77.5 per game) than on the road (69.9).
Purdue Key Players to Watch
Zach Edey leads the Boilermakers in scoring and rebounding, accumulating 22.1 points and 13.1 boards per game.
Braden Smith is Purdue’s best passer, distributing 4.2 assists per game while scoring 9.8 PPG.
Fletcher Loyer makes more threes per game than any other member of the Boilermakers, knocking down shots from beyond the arc at a clip of 1.8 per contest.
Smith is Purdue’s leader in steals, averaging 1.2 steals per game, while Edey leads them in blocks with 2.3 per contest.
Illinois Key Players to Watch
Terrence Shannon Jr. collects 17.2 points and tacks on 2.9 assists per game, putting him at the top of the Fighting Illini’s leaderboards in those statistics.
Coleman Hawkins’ stat line of 6.5 rebounds, 9.8 points and 2.9 assists per game helps him grab the top spot on the Illinois rebounding leaderboard.
Matthew Mayer is the top scorer from deep for the Fighting Illini, hitting 2.2 threes per game.
Illinois’ leader in steals is Shannon with 1.3 per game, and its leader in blocks is Mayer with 1.3 per game.
Purdue vs. Illinois Prediction
- Pick ATS:
- Pick OU:
Purdue 73, Illinois 65
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How to Bet on Purdue vs. Illinois
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