UC Riverside vs. Cal Poly Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Saturday, March 4, 2023

March 4, 2023, by Andy Molitor College Basketball Predictions

The Cal Poly Mustangs (7-23, 1-17 Big West) are underdogs (+7.5) as they try to end a 17-game losing streak when they host the UC Riverside Highlanders (20-11, 13-6 Big West) at 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, March 4, 2023 at Robert A. Mott Gymnasium. The matchup airs on ESPN+. The matchup’s over/under is 128.5.

UC Riverside vs. Cal Poly Odds

UC Riverside odds to win: -350
Cal Poly odds to win: +273
Spread: UC Riverside (-7.5)
Total: 128.5

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Game Time and Information

Date: Saturday, March 4, 2023
Time: 10:00 PM ET
TV: ESPN+
Where: San Luis Obispo, California
Venue: Robert A. Mott Gymnasium

Who Will Win UC Riverside vs. Cal Poly?

UC Riverside and Cal Poly Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread

UC Riverside is 2-3 against the spread when favored by 7.5 points or more this season.

Cal Poly has an 8-4 record against the spread when an underdog by 7.5 points or more this year.

Between them, these two teams average 3.3 more points per game (131.8) than this matchup’s over/under (128.5).

Opponents of the two teams average a combined 6.0 more points per game, 134.5, than this game’s total of 128.5 points.

The average total for UC Riverside’s games this season is 12.5 more points than the over/under of 128.5 in this game.

The average total in Mustangs games this year is 3.1 fewer points than the point total of 128.5 for this outing.

So far this season, the Highlanders have compiled a 17-13-0 record against the spread.

The Mustangs have a 15-13-0 record against the spread this season.

UC Riverside Stats & Insights

UC Riverside outscores opponents by 3.2 points per game (scoring 72.1 per game to rank 172nd in college basketball while giving up 68.9 per contest to rank 139th in college basketball) and has a +99 scoring differential overall.

UC Riverside wins the rebound battle by 4.4 boards on average. It records 32.9 rebounds per game, which ranks 108th in college basketball, while its opponents pull down 28.5 per contest.

The Highlanders hit 8.3 three-pointers per game (78th in college basketball) while shooting 35.9% from beyond the arc (84th in college basketball). They are making 2.9 more threes per contest than their opponents, who drain 5.4 per game while shooting 33.9%.

UC Riverside averages 94.9 points per 100 possessions on offense (149th in college basketball), and allows 90.7 points per 100 possessions (155th in college basketball).

The Highlanders are posting 75.7 points per game this year in home games, which is 6.8 more points than they’re averaging on the road (68.9).

Cal Poly Stats & Insights

Cal Poly is being outscored by 5.9 points per game, with a -177 scoring differential overall. It puts up 59.7 points per game (360th in college basketball), and gives up 65.6 per outing (55th in college basketball).

The 28.7 rebounds per game Cal Poly accumulates rank 325th in college basketball. Their opponents grab 28.3.

Cal Poly knocks down 5.5 three-pointers per game (338th in college basketball) compared to its opponents’ 6.4. It shoots 29.0% from deep, and its opponents shoot 34.6%.

Cal Poly ranks 354th in college basketball with 83.9 points scored per 100 possessions, and 198th defensively with 92.1 points conceded per 100 possessions.

The Mustangs are scoring more points at home (62.4 per game) than on the road (56.6).

UC Riverside Key Players to Watch

Zyon Pullin leads the Highlanders in points and assists per game, scoring 17.7 points and distributing 4.3 assists.

Lachlan Olbrich is UC Riverside’s best rebounder, grabbing an average of 6.0 boards in each contest while scoring 11.6 points per game.

Flynn Cameron leads the Highlanders in three-point shooting, knocking down an average of 2.5 shots per game from beyond the arc.

The UC Riverside steals leader is Cameron, who averages 1.2 takeaways per game, while its blocks leader is Olbrich, who compiles 0.5 rejections per contest.

Cal Poly Key Players to Watch

Alimamy Koroma is at the top of the Mustangs scoring leaderboard with 10.3 points per game. He also collects 4.2 rebounds and averages 0.4 assists per game.

Trevon Taylor puts up a stat line of 4.8 rebounds, 8.6 points and 1.2 assists per game for Cal Poly to take the top rebound spot on the team. Kobe Sanders holds the top spot for assists with 2.2 per game, adding 7.7 points and 3.2 rebounds per matchup.

Chance Hunter is the top shooter from distance for the Mustangs, hitting 1.4 threes per game.

Cal Poly’s leader in steals is Sanders (1.2 per game), and its leader in blocks is Koroma (0.9 per game).