Baylor vs. Iowa State Big 12 Tournament Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 9, 2023
The No. 4 seed Baylor Bears (22-9, 11-7 Big 12) square off against the No. 5 seed Iowa State Cyclones (18-12, 9-9 Big 12) as 4.5-point favorites in the Big 12 Tournament Thursday at T-Mobile Center, tipping off at 12:30 PM on ESPN. Both teams will look to take one step closer to earning an automatic place in the NCAA Tournament bracket. The matchup has an over/under set at 135.5 points.
Baylor vs. Iowa State Odds
- Baylor odds to win: -205
- Iowa State odds to win: +171
- Spread: Baylor (-4.5)
- Total: 135.5
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Game Time and Information
- Date: Thursday, March 9, 2023
- Time: 12:30 PM ET
- TV: ESPN
- Where: Kansas City, Missouri
- Venue: T-Mobile Center
Who Will Win Baylor vs. Iowa State?
Baylor and Iowa State Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread
Baylor has an 8-10 record against the spread this season when favored by 4.5 points or more.
Iowa State has a 4-2 record against the spread in games it was an underdog by 4.5 points or more this season.
These teams average a combined 145.8 points per game, 10.3 more points than the over/under of 135.5 set for this game.
Opponents of these teams have averaged a combined 132.2 points per game, 3.3 fewer than the point total in this matchup.
Baylor’s average point total in outings this year is 147.3, 11.8 points higher than the total in this game.
The average over/under for Cyclones games this year is 4.9 fewer points than the point total of 135.5 for this outing.
The Bears have gone 16-15-0 ATS this season.
The Cyclones’ ATS record is 15-15-0 this season.
Baylor Stats & Insights
Baylor outscores opponents by 7.3 points per game (scoring 77.3 per game to rank 53rd in college basketball while giving up 70.0 per outing to rank 176th in college basketball) and has a +227 scoring differential overall.
Baylor wins the rebound battle by 1.9 boards on average. It records 30.7 rebounds per game, which ranks 247th in college basketball, while its opponents pull down 28.8 per contest.
The Bears connect on 9.5 three-pointers per game (18th in college basketball), 2.7 more than their opponents (6.8).
Baylor’s 100.1 points per 100 possessions on offense rank 35th in college basketball, and the 90.6 points it allows per 100 possessions rank 151st in college basketball.
The Bears score 82.2 points per game in home games, compared to 71.1 points per game in road games, a difference of 11.1 points per contest.
Iowa State Stats & Insights
Iowa State’s +189 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by 6.3 points per game) is a result of putting up 68.5 points per game (263rd in college basketball) while allowing 62.2 per outing (16th in college basketball).
Iowa State pulls down 30.2 rebounds per game (266th in college basketball) while allowing 28.0 per contest to opponents. It outrebounds opponents by 2.2 boards per game.
Iowa State makes 6.5 three-pointers per game (277th in college basketball) compared to its opponents’ 7.5. It shoots 33.6% from deep, and its opponents shoot 33.2%.
Iowa State ranks 216th in college basketball averaging 92.5 points per 100 possessions on offense, and defensively is 22nd, allowing 84.0 points per 100 possessions.
In 2022-23 the Cyclones are scoring 8.5 more points per game at home (72.0) than away (63.5).
Baylor Key Players to Watch
The Bears scoring leader is Keyonte George, who averages 16.0 per contest to go with 4.2 rebounds and 2.8 assists.
Jalen Bridges is Baylor’s leading rebounder, pulling down 5.8 per game, while Adam Flagler is its best passer, averaging 4.7 assists in each contest.
The Bears get the most three-point shooting production out of Flagler, who makes 2.6 threes per game.
The Baylor steals leader is Dale Bonner, who averages 1.5 takeaways per game, while its blocks leader is Brides, who compiles 1.1 rejections per contest.
Iowa State Key Players to Watch
Jaren Holmes is the top scorer for the Cyclones with 13.2 points per game. He also adds 3.7 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game to his scoring output.
Caleb Grill has a stat line of 4.0 rebounds, 9.5 points and 1.4 assists per game for Iowa State to take the top rebound spot on the team. Tamin Lipsey has the top spot for assists with 4.6 per game, adding 7.3 points and 3.6 rebounds per matchup.
Gabe Kalscheur averages 2.1 three-pointers per game, the most on the Cyclones.
Lipsey (2.1 steals per game) is the steal leader for Iowa State while Osun Osunniyi (1.1 blocks per game) is the block leader.
Baylor vs. Iowa State Prediction
- Pick ATS:
Iowa State (+4.5)
- Pick OU:
Baylor 71, Iowa State 68
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How to Bet on Baylor vs. Iowa State
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