Mississippi State vs. Florida SEC Tournament Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 9, 2023
The No. 9 seed Mississippi State Bulldogs (20-11, 8-10 SEC) are 5-point favorites in the SEC Tournament over the No. 8 seed Florida Gators (16-15, 9-9 SEC) on Thursday at Bridgestone Arena. The game tips at 1:00 PM and airs on SEC Network, with the winner moving one step closer to securing a guaranteed spot in the NCAA Tournament bracket. The matchup’s point total is 130.5.
Mississippi State vs. Florida Odds
- Mississippi State odds to win: -218
- Florida odds to win: +180
- Spread: Mississippi State (-5)
- Total: 130.5
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Game Time and Information
- Date: Thursday, March 9, 2023
- Time: 1:00 PM ET
- TV: SEC Network
- Where: Nashville, Tennessee
- Venue: Bridgestone Arena
Who Will Win Mississippi State vs. Florida?
Mississippi State and Florida Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread
Mississippi State is 8-6 against the spread when favored by 5 points or more this season.
Florida has a 2-2 record against the spread in games when it was an underdog by 5 points or more this season.
These two teams average 138.5 points per game combined, 8.0 more than the total of 130.5.
Mississippi State and Florida have seen their opponents average a combined 1.5 fewer points per game than the point total of 130.5 set in this matchup.
Mississippi State’s average point total in outings this year is 126.8, 3.7 points below the over/under in this game.
The average point total for the Gators this year is 10.2 points higher than this game’s over/under.
The Bulldogs’ ATS record is 16-15-0 this season.
The Gators are 15-16-0 against the spread this year.
Mississippi State Stats & Insights
Mississippi State is outscoring opponents by 6.0 points per game with a +184 scoring differential overall. It puts up 66.4 points per game (314th in college basketball) and allows 60.4 per contest (seventh in college basketball).
Mississippi State wins the rebound battle by 4.6 boards on average. It records 34.8 rebounds per game, which ranks 36th in college basketball, while its opponents grab 30.2 per outing.
The Bulldogs hit 5.5 three-pointers per game (339th in college basketball), 1.7 fewer than their opponents (7.2). They are shooting 27.3% from deep (363rd in college basketball) while allowing opponents to shoot 30.9%.
Mississippi State’s 88.7 points per 100 possessions on offense rank 298th in college basketball, and the 80.8 points it allows per 100 possessions rank sixth in college basketball.
In home games, the Bulldogs are posting 5.7 more points per game (69.6) than they are in road games (63.9).
Florida Stats & Insights
Florida is outscoring opponents by 3.5 points per game, with a +106 scoring differential overall. It puts up 72.1 points per game (172nd in college basketball) and allows 68.6 per outing (133rd in college basketball).
Florida records 32 rebounds per game (165th in college basketball) while allowing 34.6 per outing to opponents. It is outrebounded by 2.6 boards per game.
Florida connects on 6.7 three-pointers per game (258th in college basketball) at a 32.4% rate (282nd in college basketball), compared to the 5.9 its opponents make, shooting 31.8% from beyond the arc.
Florida ranks 209th in college basketball with 92.7 points scored per 100 possessions, and 88th defensively with 88.3 points conceded per 100 possessions.
At home the Gators are scoring 77.7 points per game, 12.8 more than they are averaging on the road (64.9).
Mississippi State Key Players to Watch
The Bulldogs leader in points and rebounds is Tolu Smith, who scores 15.4 points and pulls down 8.3 boards per game.
Dashawn Davis is Mississippi State’s best passer, dishing out 3.4 assists per game while scoring 8.3 PPG.
Davis leads the Bulldogs in three-point shooting, knocking down an average of 1.3 shots per game from beyond the arc.
Shakeel Moore and Smith lead Mississippi State on the defensive end, with Moore leading the team in steals averaging 1.8 per game and Smith in blocks averaging 0.7 per contest.
Florida Key Players to Watch
The Gators’ leader in scoring and rebounding is Colin Castleton with 16 points and 7.7 rebounds per game.
Kyle Lofton’s assist statline paces Florida; he records 3.4 assists per game.
Will Richard is consistent from three-point range and leads the Gators with 1.7 made threes per game.
Lofton (1.1 steals per game) is the steal leader for Florida while Castleton (three blocks per game) is the block leader.
Mississippi State vs. Florida Prediction
- Pick ATS:
- Pick OU:
Mississippi State 68, Florida 66
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How to Bet on Mississippi State vs. Florida
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