UCF vs. SMU AAC Tournament Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 9, 2023

The No. 7 seed UCF Knights (17-13, 8-10 AAC) are 7.5-point favorites in the AAC Tournament over the No. 10 seed SMU Mustangs (10-21, 5-13 AAC) on Thursday at Dickies Arena. The contest begins at 3:00 PM and airs on ESPNU, with both teams hoping to move one step closer to an automatic berth in the NCAA Tournament bracket. The matchup has an over/under of 137.5.

UCF vs. SMU Odds

• UCF odds to win: -344
• SMU odds to win: +275
• Spread: UCF (-7.5)
• Total: 137.5

UCF vs. SMU Promo Codes

Game Time and Information

• Date: Thursday, March 9, 2023
• Time: 3:00 PM ET
• TV: ESPNU
• Where: Fort Worth, Texas
• Venue: Dickies Arena

Who Will Win UCF vs. SMU?

UCF and SMU Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread

UCF has a 7-3 record against the spread this season when favored by 7.5 points or more.

When it has played as at least a 7.5-point underdog this year, SMU is 4-7 against the spread.

The Knights and Mustangs average 4.8 more points between them than the total of 137.5 for this matchup.

Opponents of these two teams have averaged a combined 140.8 points per game, 3.3 more than the over/under in this matchup.

The average point total for UCF’s games this season is 0.2 fewer points than the total of 137.5 in this matchup.

Mustangs games this season have averaged an over/under of 145.8 points, 8.3 more than the point total in this matchup.

So far this season, the Knights have put together a 15-14-1 record against the spread.

So far this season, the Mustangs have compiled an 11-18-2 record against the spread.

UCF Stats & Insights

UCF is outscoring opponents by 6.7 points per game with a +199 scoring differential overall. It puts up 72 points per game (177th in college basketball) and gives up 65.3 per contest (47th in college basketball).

UCF wins the rebound battle by an average of 2.1 boards. It is grabbing 31.2 rebounds per game (220th in college basketball) compared to its opponents’ 29.1 per outing.

The Knights make 8.9 three-pointers per game (37th in college basketball) at a 35.9% rate (87th in college basketball), compared to the 6.6 per game their opponents make at a 30.8% rate.

UCF ranks 174th in college basketball by averaging 94 points per 100 possessions on offense, and defensively is 42nd in college basketball, allowing 85.3 points per 100 possessions.

The Knights are averaging 77.2 points per game at home. Away from home, they are averaging 66.4 points per contest.

SMU Stats & Insights

SMU’s -164 scoring differential (being outscored by 5.2 points per game) is a result of putting up 70.3 points per game (208th in college basketball) while giving up 75.5 per outing (322nd in college basketball).

SMU comes up short in the rebound battle by an average of 2.8 boards. It grabs 31.3 rebounds per game (212th in college basketball) compared to its opponents’ 34.1.

SMU knocks down 1.4 fewer threes per game than the opposition, 6.3 (291st in college basketball) compared to its opponents’ 7.7.

SMU ranks 319th in college basketball averaging 87.4 points per 100 possessions on offense, and defensively is 258th, allowing 94 points per 100 possessions.

At home, the Mustangs score 70.9 points per game. Away, they score 68.1.

UCF Key Players to Watch

Taylor Hendricks leads the Knights in scoring and rebounding, tallying 15.6 points and 6.7 rebounds per game.

CJ Kelly leads UCF in assists, averaging 2.8 per game while also scoring 12.4 points per contest.

Ithiel Horton leads the Knights in three-point shooting, making an average of 2.4 shots per game from beyond the arc.

Kelly is UCF’s leader in steals, averaging 1.4 steals per game, while Hendricks leads them in blocks with 1.6 per contest.

SMU Key Players to Watch

Zhuric Phelps scores 17.3 points and adds 3.1 assists per game, putting him at the top of the Mustangs’ leaderboards for those statistics.

Samuell Williamson’s stat line of 7.2 rebounds, 9.3 points and 2.6 assists per game helps him grab the top spot on the SMU rebounding leaderboard.

Zach Nutall is dependable from deep and leads the Mustangs with 1.9 made threes per game.

SMU’s leader in steals is Phelps with 2.2 per game, and its leader in blocks is Williamson with 0.8 per game.

UCF vs. SMU Prediction

• Pick ATS:

  UCF (-7.5)
  

• Pick OU:

  Over (137.5)
  

• Prediction:
  UCF 75, SMU 66

How to Bet on UCF vs. SMU

And for more CBB game previews, NCAA basketball picks or even how to bet on college basketball check out the latest NCAAB lines on Betsperts.