Baylor vs. UCSB Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – NCAA Tournament Round First Round

March 13, 2023, by Andy Molitor College Basketball Predictions

An opening-round NCAA Tournament matchup will see the 3-seed Baylor Bears (22-10) play as a 10.5-point favorite against the No. 14 seed UCSB Gauchos (27-7) on Friday at Ball Arena. The contest tips off at 1:30 PM on TNT. Here’s a deep dive into this 3-14 matchup before filling out your brackets. The over/under is set at 141 for the matchup.

Baylor vs. UCSB Odds

Baylor odds to win: -619
UCSB odds to win: +448
Spread: Baylor (-10.5)
Total: 141

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Game Time and Information

Date: Friday, March 17, 2023
Time: 1:30 PM ET
TV: TNT
Where: Denver, Colorado
Venue: Ball Arena

Who Will Win Baylor vs. UCSB?

Baylor and UCSB Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread

When it has played as at least 10.5-point favorites this season, Baylor is 4-4 against the spread.

The Bears and Gauchos average 8.4 more points between them than the over/under of 141 for this game.

Baylor and UCSB have seen their opponents average a combined 5.1 fewer points per game than the over/under of 141 set for this game.

The average over/under Baylor has had in its games this year is 6.4 more points than this particular game’s point total.

The average point total for the Gauchos this season is 3.2 points fewer than this game’s over/under.

So far this season, the Bears have compiled a 16-16-0 record against the spread.

The Gauchos have a 20-11-1 record against the spread this year.

Baylor Stats & Insights

Baylor outscores opponents by 6.9 points per game (scoring 77.2 per game to rank 52nd in college basketball while allowing 70.3 per contest to rank 184th in college basketball) and has a +221 scoring differential overall.

Baylor is 266th in the country at 30.2 rebounds per game. That’s similar to the 29.2 its opponents average.

The Bears make 9.7 three-pointers per game (14th in college basketball), 2.9 more than their opponents (6.8).

Baylor’s 100 points per 100 possessions on offense rank 35th in college basketball, and the 91.1 points it allows per 100 possessions rank 165th in college basketball.

Offensively, the Bears have performed better in home games this season, putting up 82.2 points per game, compared to 71.1 per game when playing on the road.

UCSB Stats & Insights

UCSB’s +223 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by 6.6 points per game) is a result of putting up 72.2 points per game (166th in college basketball) while allowing 65.6 per outing (51st in college basketball).

UCSB wins the rebound battle by 2.7 boards on average. It records 29.3 rebounds per game, 302nd in college basketball, while its opponents pull down 26.6.

UCSB knocks down 5.6 three-pointers per game (337th in college basketball) compared to its opponents’ 5.8. It shoots 35.2% from deep, and its opponents shoot 34.3%.

UCSB ranks 31st in college basketball with 100.1 points scored per 100 possessions, and 159th defensively with 91 points conceded per 100 possessions.

At home, the Gauchos score 75.3 points per game. Away, they score 69.6.

Baylor Key Players to Watch

The scoring leader for the Bears this season is Keyonte George, who averages 15.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 2.8 assists per game.

Baylor’s leading rebounder is Jalen Bridges averaging 5.8 boards per game and its best passer is Adam Flagler and his 4.7 assists per game.

The Bears get the most three-point shooting production out of Flagler, who knocks down 2.6 threes per game.

Dale Bonner and Brides lead Baylor on the defensive end, with Bonner leading the team in steals averaging 1.4 per game and Brides in blocks averaging one per contest.

UCSB Key Players to Watch

Ajay Mitchell scores 16.4 points and tacks on 5.2 assists per game, putting him at the top of the Gauchos’ leaderboards for those statistics.

Andre Kelly grabs 6.5 rebounds per game (he also scores 9.5 points per game and adds 0.9 assists per game) which puts him at the top of the UCSB rebounding leaderboard.

Miles Norris is the top shooter from distance for the Gauchos, hitting 1.7 threes per game.

UCSB’s leader in steals is Mitchell with 1.4 per game, and its leader in blocks is Norris with 0.8 per game.