Houston vs. Northern Kentucky Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – NCAA Tournament Round First Round

March 13, 2023, by Andy Molitor College Basketball Predictions

The top-seeded Houston Cougars (31-3) and the No. 16 Northern Kentucky Norse (22-12) are set to meet in their opening-round matchup in the NCAA Tournament on Thursday, beginning at 9:20 PM on TNT. Houston is an 18.5-point favorite in this game. Here’s everything you need to know about this Midwest Region matchup as you fill out your brackets. The point total is set at 121.5 for the matchup.

Houston vs. Northern Kentucky Odds

Houston odds to win: -3520
Northern Kentucky odds to win: +1383
Spread: Houston (-18.5)
Total: 121.5

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Game Time and Information

Date: Thursday, March 16, 2023
Time: 9:20 PM ET
TV: TNT
Where: Birmingham, Alabama
Venue: Legacy Arena at BJCC

Who Will Win Houston vs. Northern Kentucky?

Houston and Northern Kentucky Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread

Houston has a 10-6 record against the spread when favored by 18.5 points or more this season.

Between them, these two teams average 21.7 more points per game (143.2) than this game’s total (121.5).

Houston and Northern Kentucky have seen their opponents average a combined 1.4 fewer points per game than the over/under of 121.5 set in this outing.

The average total Houston has had in its matchups this season is 10 more points than this particular game’s point total.

The average over/under for Norse games this year is 10.3 more points than the point total of 121.5 for this outing.

The Cougars’ ATS record is 18-15-1 this season.

The Norse are 14-18-0 against the spread this season.

Houston Stats & Insights

Houston averages 75 points per game (99th in college basketball) while allowing 56.5 per outing (second in college basketball). It has a +630 scoring differential overall and outscores opponents by 18.5 points per game.

The 35.9 rebounds per game Houston averages rank 12th in college basketball, and are 8.5 more than the 27.4 its opponents pull down per contest.

The Cougars connect on 7.8 three-pointers per game (126th in college basketball) at a 34.5% rate (166th in college basketball), compared to the 6.3 per game their opponents make at a 27.8% rate.

Houston scores 101.2 points per 100 possessions (19th in college basketball), while allowing 76.2 points per 100 possessions (first in college basketball).

At home, the Cougars are scoring 1.7 more points per game (77.3) than they are on the road (75.6).

Northern Kentucky Stats & Insights

Northern Kentucky puts up 68.2 points per game (273rd in college basketball) while allowing 63.6 per contest (28th in college basketball). It has a +159 scoring differential and outscores opponents by 4.6 points per game.

The 30.4 rebounds per game Northern Kentucky accumulates rank 263rd in the nation. Their opponents pull down 30.3.

Northern Kentucky hits 8.2 three-pointers per game (86th in college basketball), while its opponents have made 7.4 on average.

Northern Kentucky averages 93.3 points per 100 possessions on offense (195th in college basketball), and allows 86.9 points per 100 possessions (65th in college basketball).

The Norse are putting up more points at home (72.7 per game) than away (63.3).

Houston Key Players to Watch

The Cougars scoring leader is Marcus Sasser, who averages 17.1 per contest to go with 2.8 rebounds and 3.2 assists.

J’wan Roberts leads Houston in rebounding, averaging 7.7 per game, while Jamal Shead leads the team in assists, distributing an average of 5.4 in each contest.

Sasser makes more threes per game than any other member of the Cougars, knocking down shots from beyond the arc at a clip of 2.7 per contest.

Shead is Houston’s leader in steals, averaging 1.8 steals per game, while Roberts leads them in blocks with 1.3 per contest.

Northern Kentucky Key Players to Watch

Marques Warrick averages 19.1 points per game to be the top scorer for the Norse.

The Northern Kentucky leaders in rebounding and assists are Chris Brandon with 9.8 rebounds per game (he also adds 6.8 points and 0.8 assists per game) and Xavier Rhodes with 3.7 assists per game (he also tacks on 7.7 points and 2.3 rebounds per game).

Warrick makes 2.5 three-pointers per game, the most on the Norse.

Sam Vinson (2.4 steals per game) is the steal leader for Northern Kentucky while Brandon (0.7 blocks per game) is the block leader.