Kentucky vs. Providence Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – NCAA Tournament Round First Round

March 13, 2023, by Andy Molitor College Basketball Predictions

The No. 6 seed Kentucky Wildcats (21-11) and the No. 11 seed Providence Friars (21-11) will meet on Friday at 7:10 PM in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Kentucky is a 4.5-point favorite in the matchup, which airs on CBS. Here’s everything you need to know ahead of this 6-11 matchup in the East Region bracket. The over/under is 143 for the matchup.

Kentucky vs. Providence Odds

Kentucky odds to win: -198
Providence odds to win: +164
Spread: Kentucky (-4.5)
Total: 143

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Game Time and Information

Date: Friday, March 17, 2023
Time: 7:10 PM ET
TV: CBS
Where: Greensboro, North Carolina
Venue: Greensboro Coliseum

Who Will Win Kentucky vs. Providence?

Kentucky and Providence Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread

In games this season it was favored by 4.5 points or more, Kentucky has a 10-12 record against the spread.

Providence has a 2-4 record against the spread when an underdog by 4.5 points or more this season.

These teams average 153.2 points per game combined, 10.2 more than the over/under of 143.

Kentucky and Providence have seen their opponents average a combined 3.7 fewer points per game than the point total of 143 set for this outing.

The average total in Kentucky’s games this year is 0.1 more points than the over/under of 143 in this game.

The average point total for the Friars this year is 6.4 points higher than this game’s over/under.

The Wildcats are 15-17-0 ATS this season.

The Friars are 18-14-0 against the spread this year.

Kentucky Stats & Insights

Kentucky’s +225 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by 7.1 points per game) is a result of scoring 75.1 points per game (96th in college basketball) while allowing 68 per contest (119th in college basketball).

The 36.2 rebounds per game Kentucky averages rank ninth in the country, and are 9.3 more than the 26.9 its opponents pull down per outing.

The Wildcats knock down 6.4 three-pointers per game (287th in college basketball), while their opponents have made 6.6 on average.

Kentucky’s 98.4 points per 100 possessions on offense rank 60th in college basketball, and the 89.2 points it allows per 100 possessions rank 115th in college basketball.

The Wildcats average 78.4 points per game at home, compared to 71.4 points per game in away games, a difference of seven points per contest.

Providence Stats & Insights

Providence outscores opponents by 6.8 points per game (posting 78.1 points per game, 35th in college basketball, and giving up 71.3 per outing, 218th in college basketball) and has a +217 scoring differential.

The 35.1 rebounds per game Providence accumulates rank 29th in college basketball, 5.8 more than the 29.3 its opponents pull down.

Providence connects on 6.7 three-pointers per game (258th in college basketball) at a 35.1% rate (125th in college basketball), compared to the 6.9 its opponents make, shooting 34% from beyond the arc.

Providence ranks 44th in college basketball with 99.4 points scored per 100 possessions, and 152nd defensively with 90.8 points conceded per 100 possessions.

At home, the Friars average 82.9 points per game. On the road, they average 73.9.

Kentucky Key Players to Watch

Oscar Tshiebwe leads the Wildcats in scoring and rebounding, accumulating 16.5 points and 13.1 boards per game.

Cason Wallace is Kentucky’s best passer, dispensing 4.2 assists per game while scoring 11.6 PPG.

Antonio Reeves makes more threes per game than any other member of the Wildcats, knocking down shots from beyond the arc at a clip of 2.3 per contest.

Wallace and Tshiebwe lead Kentucky on the defensive end, with Wallace leading the team in steals averaging two per game and Tshiebwe in blocks averaging one per contest.

Providence Key Players to Watch

Bryce Hopkins has the top spot on the Friars leaderboards for scoring and rebounding with 16.1 points and 8.5 rebounds per game.

Jared Bynum’s assist statline leads Providence; he racks up 4.3 assists per game.

Noah Locke is the most prolific from deep for the Friars, hitting 2.2 threes per game.

Providence’s leader in steals is Devin Carter (1.8 per game), and its leader in blocks is Clifton Moore (1.2 per game).