Texas vs. Penn State Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – NCAA Tournament Round Second Round

March 17, 2023, by Andy Molitor College Basketball Predictions

The No. 2 seed Texas Longhorns (27-8) are 5-point favorites as they attempt to secure a place in the Sweet 16 in an NCAA Tournament second round Midwest Region bracket matchup against the No. 10 seed Penn State Nittany Lions (23-13) on Saturday at Wells Fargo Arena, starting at 7:45 PM on CBS. The over/under is set at 138 in the matchup.

Texas vs. Penn State Odds

Texas odds to win: -241
Penn State odds to win: +196
Spread: Texas (-5)
Total: 138

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Game Time and Information

Date: Saturday, March 18, 2023
Time: 7:45 PM ET
TV: CBS
Where: Des Moines, Iowa
Venue: Wells Fargo Arena

Who Will Win Texas vs. Penn State?

Texas and Penn State Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread

When it has played as at least 5-point favorites this season, Texas is 9-10 against the spread.

Penn State is 3-3 against the spread when an underdog by 5 points or more this season.

Between them, these two teams average 12.3 more points per game (150.3) than this game’s over/under (138).

Opponents of the two teams average a combined 2.7 fewer points per game (135.3) than this game’s over/under of 138 points.

The average total for Texas’ games this season is 7.1 more points than the over/under of 138 in this game.

The average over/under in Nittany Lions games this year is 2.6 more points than the point total of 138 for this outing.

The Longhorns are 18-17-0 ATS this season.

The Nittany Lions have a 21-14-1 record against the spread this year.

Texas Stats & Insights

Texas outscores opponents by 10.7 points per game (scoring 77.9 per game to rank 37th in college basketball while allowing 67.2 per contest to rank 88th in college basketball) and has a +374 scoring differential overall.

Texas averages 31.9 rebounds per game (173rd in college basketball) compared to the 31 of its opponents.

The Longhorns connect on 7.3 three-pointers per game (192nd in college basketball), while their opponents have made 6.4 on average.

Texas scores 98.9 points per 100 possessions (50th in college basketball), while giving up 85.3 points per 100 possessions (38th in college basketball).

The Longhorns score 84.8 points per game when playing at home, compared to 69.4 points per game in road games, a difference of 15.4 points per contest.

Penn State Stats & Insights

Penn State puts up 72.4 points per game (161st in college basketball) while giving up 68.1 per outing (121st in college basketball). It has a +154 scoring differential and outscores opponents by 4.3 points per game.

Penn State ranks 279th in college basketball at 30 rebounds per game. That’s 2.7 fewer than the 32.7 its opponents average.

Penn State connects on 10.5 three-pointers per game (fourth-most in college basketball), 3.1 more than its opponents. It shoots 39% from deep (fifth-best in college basketball), and its opponents are shooting 33.1%.

Penn State scores 101.2 points per 100 possessions (17th in college basketball), while allowing 95.2 points per 100 possessions (284th in college basketball).

At home, the Nittany Lions score 75.9 points per game. On the road, they average 68.4.

Texas Key Players to Watch

The Longhorns leader in points and assists is Marcus Carr, who scores 15.9 points per game along with 4.1 assists.

Texas’ best rebounder is Timmy Allen, who averages 5.4 boards per game in addition to his 10.3 PPG average.

Carr makes more threes per game than any other member of the Longhorns, knocking down shots from beyond the arc at a clip of 2.2 per contest.

Carr is Texas’ leader in steals, averaging 1.7 steals per game, while Dylan Disu leads them in blocks with 1.4 per contest.

Penn State Key Players to Watch

Jalen Pickett holds the top spot on the Nittany Lions leaderboards for scoring (17.9 per game), rebounds (7.3 per game), and assists (6.7 per game).

Andrew Funk makes 3.1 three-pointers per game, the most on the Nittany Lions.

Penn State’s leader in steals is Pickett (0.9 per game), and its leader in blocks is Seth Lundy (0.6 per game).