Creighton vs. Baylor Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – NCAA Tournament Round Second Round

March 18, 2023, by Andy Molitor College Basketball Predictions

The No. 6 seed Creighton Bluejays (22-12) are 1-point favorites as they try to earn a trip to the Sweet 16 in an NCAA Tournament Round of 32 South Region bracket matchup against the No. 3 seed Baylor Bears (23-10) on Sunday at Ball Arena, starting at 7:10 PM on TBS. The matchup has a point total of 143.5.

Creighton vs. Baylor Odds

Creighton odds to win: -118
Baylor odds to win: -102
Spread: Creighton (-1)
Total: 143.5

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Game Time and Information

Date: Sunday, March 19, 2023
Time: 7:10 PM ET
TV: TBS
Where: Denver, Colorado
Venue: Ball Arena

Who Will Win Creighton vs. Baylor?

Creighton and Baylor Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread

Creighton has a 15-14 record against the spread this season when favored by 1 point or more.

Baylor has a 3-2 record against the spread this season when an underdog by 1 point or more.

Between them, these two teams average 10.1 more points per game (153.6) than this game’s total (143.5).

Creighton and Baylor have seen their opponents average a combined 5.4 fewer points per game than the point total of 143.5 set for this game.

The average over/under Creighton has had set in matchups this year is 1.3 more points than this outing’s point total.

The average point total for the Bears this year is 3.4 points higher than this game’s over/under.

The Bluejays are 17-17-0 ATS this season.

The Bears have a 17-16-0 record against the spread this season.

Creighton Stats & Insights

Creighton has a +278 scoring differential, topping opponents by 8.2 points per game. It is putting up 76.5 points per game to rank 62nd in college basketball and is allowing 68.3 per outing to rank 127th in college basketball.

Creighton wins the rebound battle by 3.7 boards on average. It records 34.7 rebounds per game, which ranks 40th in college basketball, while its opponents pull down 31 per contest.

The Bluejays make 8.7 three-pointers per game (51st in college basketball) at a 35.5% rate (101st in college basketball), compared to the 6.3 per game their opponents make at a 33.9% rate.

Creighton averages 99.6 points per 100 possessions (37th in college basketball), while giving up 89 points per 100 possessions (108th in college basketball).

Offensively, the Bluejays have fared better when playing at home this year, scoring 79.3 points per game, compared to 72.5 per game on the road.

Baylor Stats & Insights

Baylor’s +239 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by 7.3 points per game) is a result of putting up 77.1 points per game (53rd in college basketball) while giving up 69.8 per contest (167th in college basketball).

Baylor grabs 30.1 rebounds per game (270th in college basketball) while conceding 29 per outing to opponents. It outrebounds opponents by 1.1 boards per game.

Baylor makes 9.6 three-pointers per game (15th in college basketball) at a 37.1% rate (35th in college basketball), compared to the 6.8 per game its opponents make, at a 32% rate.

Baylor averages 100.4 points per 100 possessions (26th in college basketball), while giving up 90.9 points per 100 possessions (157th in college basketball).

At home, the Bears score 82.2 points per game. On the road, they average 71.1.

Creighton Key Players to Watch

The Bluejays scoring leader is Ryan Kalkbrenner, who averages 15.9 per contest to go with 6.1 rebounds and 1.3 assists.

Baylor Scheierman leads Creighton in rebounding, averaging 8.3 per game, while Ryan Nembhard leads the team in assists, distributing an average of 4.9 in each contest.

Scheierman leads the Bluejays in three-point shooting, making an average of 2.3 shots per game from beyond the arc.

Trey Alexander is Creighton’s leader in steals, averaging 1.1 steals per game, while Kalkbrenner leads them in blocks with 2.2 per contest.

Baylor Key Players to Watch

Adam Flagler scores 15.6 points and adds 4.7 assists per game, putting him at the top of the Bears’ leaderboards for those statistics.

Jalen Bridges’ stat line of 5.6 rebounds, 10.2 points and 1.1 assists per game helps him grab the top spot on the Baylor rebounding leaderboard.

Flagler is consistent from deep and leads the Bears with 2.6 made threes per game.

Baylor’s leader in steals is Dale Bonner with 1.4 per game, and its leader in blocks is Brides with one per game.