Xavier vs. Pittsburgh Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – NCAA Tournament Round Second Round

March 18, 2023, by Andy Molitor College Basketball Predictions

The No. 3 seed from the Midwest Region bracket, the Xavier Musketeers (26-9), play the No. 11 seed Pittsburgh Panthers (24-11) on Sunday with a spot in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament on the line. Xavier has been installed as a 5-point favorite to win this second round matchup, which starts at 12:10 PM on CBS. The matchup has an over/under of 151.5 points.

Xavier vs. Pittsburgh Odds

Xavier odds to win: -207
Pittsburgh odds to win: +173
Spread: Xavier (-5)
Total: 151.5

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Game Time and Information

Date: Sunday, March 19, 2023
Time: 12:10 PM ET
TV: CBS
Where: Greensboro, North Carolina
Venue: Greensboro Coliseum

Who Will Win Xavier vs. Pittsburgh?

Xavier and Pittsburgh Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread

In games this season it was favored by 5 points or more, Xavier has a 5-10 record against the spread.

Pittsburgh is 7-3 against the spread when an underdog by 5 points or more this season.

These two teams average 156.3 points per game combined, 4.8 more than the total of 151.5.

Opponents of these teams have averaged a combined 143.2 points per game, 8.3 fewer than the point total for this game.

The average total Xavier has had set in matchups this season is 3.5 more points than this outing’s point total.

The average total in Panthers games this year is 7.0 fewer points than the point total of 151.5 in this outing.

So far this season, the Musketeers have compiled an 18-16-1 record against the spread.

The Panthers are 24-11-0 against the spread this season.

Xavier Stats & Insights

Xavier averages 81.1 points per game (11th in college basketball) while giving up 73.9 per contest (291st in college basketball). It has a +255 scoring differential overall and outscores opponents by 7.2 points per game.

Xavier grabs 34.8 rebounds per game (35th in college basketball) while conceding 29.0 per outing to its opponents. It outrebounds opponents by 5.8 boards per game.

The Musketeers connect on 7.4 three-pointers per game (181st in college basketball) compared to their opponents’ 7.5. They shoot 39.1% from deep while their opponents hit 35.6% from long range.

Xavier’s 101.2 points per 100 possessions on offense rank 17th in college basketball, and the 92.1 points it allows per 100 possessions rank 197th in college basketball.

The Musketeers are putting up 83.6 points per game at home. Away from home, they are averaging 80.5 points per contest.

Pittsburgh Stats & Insights

Pittsburgh is outscoring opponents by 5.9 points per game, with a +205 scoring differential overall. It puts up 75.2 points per game (92nd in college basketball) and allows 69.3 per contest (153rd in college basketball).

Pittsburgh is 95th in the nation at 33.1 rebounds per game. That’s 1.5 more than the 31.6 its opponents average.

Pittsburgh makes 9.1 three-pointers per game (29th in college basketball) while shooting 36.1% from deep (74th in college basketball). It is making 1.5 more threes than its opponents, who drain 7.6 per game at 32.6%.

Pittsburgh’s 98.5 points per 100 possessions on offense rank 57th in college basketball, and the 90.8 points it allows per 100 possessions rank 153rd in college basketball.

The Panthers are scoring more points at home (77.8 per game) than on the road (75.4).

Xavier Key Players to Watch

The Musketeers leader in points and assists is Souley Boum, who puts up 16.5 points per game along with 4.3 assists.

Xavier’s best rebounder is Jack Nunge, who averages 7.9 boards per game in addition to his 14.0 PPG average.

The Musketeers get the most three-point shooting production out of Boum, who knocks down 2.2 threes per game.

The Xavier steals leader is Colby Jones, who averages 1.4 takeaways per game, while its blocks leader is Nunge, who compiles 1.2 rejections per contest.

Pittsburgh Key Players to Watch

Jamarius Burton sits at the top of the Panthers scoring leaderboard with 15.2 points per game. He also pulls down 4.7 rebounds and averages 4.2 assists per game.

The Pittsburgh leaders in rebounding and assists are Blake Hinson with 6.1 rebounds per game (he also adds 15.2 points and 1.2 assists per game) and Nelly Cummings with 4.7 assists per game (he also tacks on 11.2 points and 2.5 rebounds per game).

Hinson is the top scorer from the three-point line for the Panthers, hitting 2.7 threes per game.

Burton (0.9 steals per game) is the steal leader for Pittsburgh while Fede Federiko (1.7 blocks per game) is the block leader.