Texas vs. Xavier Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – NCAA Tournament Round Sweet 16

March 20, 2023, by Andy Molitor College Basketball Predictions

The Midwest Region bracket’s No. 2 seed Texas Longhorns (28-8) are 4-point favorites to defeat the No. 3 Xavier Musketeers (27-9) in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament on Friday at 9:45 PM, live from T-Mobile Center and airing on CBS. The over/under is set at 148 in the matchup.

Texas vs. Xavier Odds

Texas odds to win: -189
Xavier odds to win: +161
Spread: Texas (-4)
Total: 148

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Game Time and Information

Date: Friday, March 24, 2023
Time: 9:45 PM ET
TV: CBS
Where: Kansas City, Missouri
Venue: T-Mobile Center

Who Will Win Texas vs. Xavier?

Texas and Xavier Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread

Texas is 10-11 against the spread when favored by 4 points or more this season.

In games this season in which it was an underdog by 4 points or more, Xavier has a 3-2 record against the spread.

These teams average a combined 158.9 points per game, 10.9 more points than the total of 148 set for this game.

Texas and Xavier have seen their opponents average a combined seven fewer points per game than the over/under of 148 set for this outing.

Texas’ average point total in outings this season is 144.9, 3.1 points less than the total in this game.

The average point total for the Musketeers this year is 7.1 points higher than this game’s over/under.

The Longhorns’ ATS record is 18-17-0 this season.

The Musketeers’ ATS record is 19-16-1 this season.

Texas Stats & Insights

Texas outscores opponents by 10.5 points per game (scoring 77.7 per game to rank 40th in college basketball while giving up 67.2 per outing to rank 88th in college basketball) and has a +379 scoring differential overall.

Texas pulls down 32 rebounds per game (163rd in college basketball) compared to the 31 of its opponents.

The Longhorns knock down 7.1 three-pointers per game (209th in college basketball), while their opponents have made 6.4 on average.

Texas averages 98.9 points per 100 possessions on offense (50th in college basketball), and allows 85.5 points per 100 possessions (39th in college basketball).

The Longhorns are putting up 84.8 points per game this year in home games, which is 15.4 more points than they’re averaging in away games (69.4).

Xavier Stats & Insights

Xavier’s +266 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by 7.4 points per game) is a result of putting up 81.2 points per game (10th in college basketball) while allowing 73.8 per outing (285th in college basketball).

Xavier wins the rebound battle by 5.5 boards on average. It collects 34.8 rebounds per game, 35th in college basketball, while its opponents pull down 29.3.

Xavier knocks down 7.4 three-pointers per game (182nd in college basketball) compared to its opponents’ 7.4. It shoots 38.9% from deep, and its opponents shoot 35.5%.

Xavier averages 101.1 points per 100 possessions on offense (15th in college basketball), and concedes 91.9 points per 100 possessions (188th in college basketball).

At home, the Musketeers average 83.6 points per game. Away, they average 80.5.

Texas Key Players to Watch

The Longhorns leader in points and assists is Marcus Carr, who puts up 15.8 points per game along with 4.1 assists.

Texas’ best rebounder is Timmy Allen, who averages 5.6 boards per game in addition to his 10.3 PPG average.

Carr leads the Longhorns in three-point shooting, knocking down an average of 2.1 shots per game from beyond the arc.

The Texas steals leader is Carr, who averages 1.7 takeaways per game, while its blocks leader is Dylan Disu, who compiles 1.3 rejections per contest.

Xavier Key Players to Watch

Souley Boum’s points (16.5 per game) and assists (4.3 per game) stat lines give him the top scoring and assists spots on the Musketeers’ leaderboards.

Jack Nunge grabs 7.7 rebounds per game (he also scores 14.1 points per game and adds 2.1 assists per game) which puts him at the top of the Xavier rebounding leaderboard.

Boum is consistent from distance and leads the Musketeers with 2.2 made threes per game.

Xavier’s leader in steals is Colby Jones (1.3 per game), and its leader in blocks is Nunge (1.2 per game).