UConn vs. Arkansas Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – NCAA Tournament Round Sweet 16

March 20, 2023, by Andy Molitor College Basketball Predictions

A Sweet 16 matchup features the No. 4 seed UConn Huskies (27-8) and the No. 8 seed Arkansas Razorbacks (22-13) squaring off with a ticket to the West Region bracket final on the line on Thursday at T-Mobile Arena. UConn is a 3.5-point favorite in the NCAA Tournament contest, which begins at 7:15 PM on CBS. The matchup has an over/under of 140.

UConn vs. Arkansas Odds

UConn odds to win: -183
Arkansas odds to win: +155
Spread: UConn (-3.5)
Total: 140

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Game Time and Information

Date: Thursday, March 23, 2023
Time: 7:15 PM ET
TV: CBS
Where: Las Vegas, Nevada
Venue: T-Mobile Arena

Who Will Win UConn vs. Arkansas?

UConn and Arkansas Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread

In games it has played as at least 3.5-point favorites this season, UConn is 19-10 against the spread.

Arkansas has a 4-2 record against the spread in games it was an underdog by 3.5 points or more this year.

These two teams average a combined 152.8 points per game, 12.8 more points than the total of 140 set for this matchup.

UConn and Arkansas have seen their opponents average a combined 7.9 fewer points per game than the point total of 140 set in this game.

The average total UConn has had set in games this year is 3.1 more points than this outing’s point total.

Razorbacks games this year have averaged a total of 141.7 points, 1.7 more than the point total in this matchup.

The Huskies have a 22-12-0 record against the spread this season.

So far this season, the Razorbacks have put together a 17-16-2 record against the spread.

UConn Stats & Insights

UConn’s +482 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by 13.8 points per game) is a result of scoring 78.5 points per game (31st in college basketball) while giving up 64.7 per outing (38th in college basketball).

UConn is 12th in the nation at 36 rebounds per game. That’s 10 more than the 26 its opponents average.

The Huskies connect on 9.1 three-pointers per game (30th in college basketball), 4.1 more than their opponents (5). They are shooting 36.2% from beyond the arc (68th in college basketball) while allowing opponents to shoot 30.3%.

UConn’s 101.6 points per 100 possessions on offense rank 12th in college basketball, and the 83.7 points it allows per 100 possessions rank 16th in college basketball.

In home games, the Huskies are posting 13.2 more points per game (83.3) than they are when playing on the road (70.1).

Arkansas Stats & Insights

Arkansas has a +243 scoring differential, topping opponents by 6.9 points per game. It is putting up 74.3 points per game, 115th in college basketball, and is giving up 67.4 per contest to rank 98th in college basketball.

Arkansas wins the rebound battle by an average of 3.3 boards. It pulls down 32.6 rebounds per game (117th in college basketball) compared to its opponents’ 29.3.

Arkansas knocks down 5 three-pointers per game (350th in college basketball) compared to its opponents’ 5.1. It shoots 31.3% from deep, and its opponents shoot 30.6%.

Arkansas puts up 95.1 points per 100 possessions (141st in college basketball), while conceding 86.2 points per 100 possessions (49th in college basketball).

The Razorbacks average 76.3 points per game at home, and 68.9 on the road.

UConn Key Players to Watch

The scoring and rebounding leader for the Huskies is Adama Sanogo, who accumulates 17.3 points and 7.5 rebounds per game.

Tristen Newton is UConn’s best passer, dishing out 4.7 assists per game while scoring 10.1 PPG.

Jordan Hawkins makes more threes per game than any other member of the Huskies, knocking down shots from beyond the arc at a clip of 2.9 per contest.

Newton and Donovan Clingan lead UConn on the defensive end, with Newton leading the team in steals averaging 1.1 per game and Clingan in blocks averaging 1.8 per contest.

Arkansas Key Players to Watch

Ricky Council IV is at the top of the Razorbacks scoring leaderboard with 16.1 points per game. He also pulls down 3.6 rebounds and racks up 2.3 assists per game.

Makhi Mitchell puts up a stat line of 5.5 rebounds, 7.1 points and 1.1 assists per game for Arkansas to take the top rebound spot on the team. Anthony Black has the top spot for assists with four per game, adding 12.6 points and 5.1 rebounds per contest.

Davonte Davis is the most prolific from deep for the Razorbacks, hitting 1.4 threes per game.

Black (two steals per game) is the steal leader for Arkansas while Makhel Mitchell (1.6 blocks per game) is the block leader.