UConn vs. Gonzaga Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – NCAA Tournament Round Elite Eight

March 24, 2023, by Andy Molitor College Basketball Predictions

The No. 3 seed Gonzaga Bulldogs (31-5) are 3-point underdogs in their NCAA Tournament Elite Eight matchup with the No. 4 seed UConn Huskies (28-8) on Saturday at T-Mobile Arena, airing on TBS beginning at 8:49 PM, with the winner advancing to the Final Four from the West Region bracket. The point total for the matchup is 153.5.

UConn vs. Gonzaga Odds

UConn odds to win: -156
Gonzaga odds to win: +133
Spread: UConn (-3)
Total: 153.5

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Game Time and Information

Date: Saturday, March 25, 2023
Time: 8:49 PM ET
TV: TBS
Where: Las Vegas, Nevada
Venue: T-Mobile Arena

Who Will Win UConn vs. Gonzaga?

UConn and Gonzaga Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread

UConn has a 20-11 record against the spread this season when favored by 3 points or more.

Gonzaga is 0-1 against the spread when an underdog by 3 points or greater this year.

The Huskies and Bulldogs average 12.2 more points between them than the total of 153.5 for this matchup.

Opponents of the two teams average a combined 15.7 fewer points per game (137.8) than this game’s over/under of 153.5 points.

UConn’s average point total in outings this year is 143.4, 10.1 points below the over/under in this game.

The average over/under for Bulldogs games this season is 6.7 more points than the point total of 153.5 for this outing.

So far this season, the Huskies have put together a 23-12-0 record against the spread.

The Bulldogs’ ATS record is 15-20-0 this season.

UConn Stats & Insights

UConn averages 78.7 points per game (28th in college basketball) while giving up 64.7 per contest (38th in college basketball). It has a +505 scoring differential overall and outscores opponents by 14 points per game.

UConn ranks 11th in the nation at 36.1 rebounds per game. That’s 10.1 more than the 26 its opponents average.

The Huskies hit 9.1 three-pointers per game (30th in college basketball) while shooting 36.4% from deep (62nd in college basketball). They are making 4.1 more threes per contest than their opponents, who drain 5 per game while shooting 30.3%.

UConn ranks 12th in college basketball with 101.8 points scored per 100 possessions, and 16th in college basketball defensively with 83.7 points conceded per 100 possessions.

The Huskies put up 83.3 points per game in home games, compared to 70.1 points per game in road games, a difference of 13.2 points per contest.

Gonzaga Stats & Insights

Gonzaga outscores opponents by 13.9 points per game (posting 87 points per game, first in college basketball, and allowing 73.1 per outing, 268th in college basketball) and has a +500 scoring differential.

Gonzaga wins the rebound battle by 6.1 boards on average. It collects 34.3 rebounds per game, 44th in college basketball, while its opponents pull down 28.2.

Gonzaga knocks down 7.7 three-pointers per game (134th in college basketball), while its opponents have made 8.2 on average.

Gonzaga ranks first in college basketball averaging 109 points per 100 possessions on offense, and defensively is 180th, allowing 91.6 points per 100 possessions.

The Bulldogs are scoring more points at home (92.9 per game) than away (84.8).

UConn Key Players to Watch

The scoring and rebounding leader for the Huskies is Adama Sanogo, who averages 17.3 points and 7.5 rebounds per game.

Tristen Newton leads UConn in assists, averaging 4.7 per game while also scoring 9.9 points per contest.

The Huskies get the most three-point shooting production out of Jordan Hawkins, who makes 2.9 threes per game.

The UConn steals leader is Andre Jackson, who averages 1.1 takeaways per game, while its blocks leader is Donovan Clingan, who compiles 1.8 rejections per contest.

Gonzaga Key Players to Watch

Drew Timme is at the top of nearly all of the Bulldogs’ leaderboards by recording 21.5 points, 7.5 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game.

Julian Strawther hits 2.2 three-pointers per game, the most on the Bulldogs.

Gonzaga’s leader in steals is Anton Watson with 1.8 per game, and its leader in blocks is Timme with one per game.