NEWSLETTER
March Madness is here which means everyone will be searching for this tournament’s big first-round upset. Today we’re trying to help answer this question by looking at the most likely 13 seed to pull off the March Madness upset.
March Madness Upset Picks: History of 13 Seeds vs. 4 Seeds
The NCAA Tournament didn’t expand to its current format until 1985 meaning this particular matchup first took place that season. It didn’t take long for the first March Madness upset of its kind, with David Robinson leading no. 13 Navy past 4-seed LSU.
Including that 1985 season, there have been 152 of these first-round matchups all-time. The lower seed has won 32 of them. Lately, it’s been a very common March Madness upset with at least one 13 seed advancing to the second round in four of the last five years. The most recent was the Furman Paladins’ miraculous win over Virginia during the opening window of the 2023 NCAA Tournament.
| Year | 13 seed | 4 seed | Final Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1985 | Navy | LSU | 78-55 |
| 1987 | Missouri St. | Clemson | 65-60 |
| 1987 | Xavier | Missouri | 70-69 |
| 1988 | Richmond | Indiana | 72-69 |
| 1989 | Middle Tennessee | Florida State | 97-83 |
| 1991 | Penn State | UCLA | 74-69 |
| 1992 | Southwestern Louisiana | Oklahoma | 87-83 |
| 1993 | Southern | Georgia Tech | 93-78 |
| 1995 | Manhattan | Oklahoma | 77-67 |
| 1996 | Princeton | UCLA | 43-41 |
| 1998 | Valparaiso | Ole Miss | 70-69 |
| 1999 | Oklahoma | Arizona | 61-60 |
| 2001 | Indiana State | Oklahoma | 70-68 |
| 2001 | Kent State | Indiana | 77-73 |
| 2002 | UNC Wilmington | USC | 93-89 |
| 2003 | Tulsa | Dayton | 84-71 |
| 2005 | Vermont | Syracuse | 60-57 |
| 2006 | Bradley | Kansas | 77-73 |
| 2008 | Siena | Vanderbilt | 83-62 |
| 2008 | San Diego | UConn | 70-69 |
| 2009 | Cleveland State | Wake Forest | 84-69 |
| 2010 | Murray State | Vanderbilt | 66-65 |
| 2011 | Morehead State | Louisville | 62-61 |
| 2012 | Ohio | Michigan | 65-60 |
| 2013 | La Salle | Kansas State | 63-61 |
| 2016 | Hawaii | California | 77-66 |
| 2018 | Buffalo | Arizona | 89-69 |
| 2018 | Marshall | Wichita State | 81-75 |
| 2019 | UC Irvine | Kansas State | 70-64 |
| 2021 | North Texas | Purdue | 78-69 (OT) |
| 2021 | Ohio | Virginia | 62-58 |
| 2023 | Furman | Virginia | 68-67 |
2024 March Madness 13 seed vs. 4 seed matchups
Here are the four 13 vs. 4 matchups for this year.
| Region | 13 seed | 4 seed |
|---|---|---|
| East | Yale (22-9) | Auburn (27-7) |
| West | Charleston (27-7) | Alabama (21-11) |
| South | Vermont (28-6) | Duke (24-8) |
| Midwest | Samford (29-5) | Kansas (22-10) |
The March Madness upsets really begin with this matchup because we often see small schools that have won their conference championships going against P5 schools that did not. This gives the momentum edge to the little guys in these David vs. Goliath games. This has certainly been the case over the last two tournaments with six of their eight games being decided by single-digits.
East Region: 13 Yale vs. 4 Auburn
This NCAA Tournament first-round matchup features a classic David vs. Goliath situation. The Ivy League champion Yale Bulldogs are heavy underdogs against the SEC powerhouse Auburn Tigers.
13 Yale: They squeaked into the tournament with a buzzer-beater win. However, they shouldn’t be overlooked. They boast a strong defense and a couple of sharpshooters from three-point range.
4 Auburn: They are a high-scoring team with a deep bench. They’re looking to build on their conference tournament win and make a deep run in the tournament.
Prediction: Can Yale pull off the upset? It’s an uphill battle, but their perimeter defense and outside shooting could be the key. Auburn, on the other hand, will try to overwhelm Yale with their athleticism and depth.
Prediction: While Yale is a tough out, Auburn is quite possibly the most under-seeded team this season. The Tigers are actually 4th overall according to Kenpom, and have a similar look as UConn did last year. Nothing is impossible, but Yale defeating Auburn is as close as it gets.
West Region: 13 Charleston vs. 4 Alabama
Get ready for a high-scoring shootout between Charleston and Alabama! This NCAA Tournament first-round matchup features two contrasting styles
13 Charleston: The underdog Cougars are known for their deliberate offense, averaging a respectable 80.5 points per game. They’ll try to control the tempo and exploit any defensive weaknesses in Alabama’s game.
4 Alabama: The SEC powerhouse boasts a high-octane offense, averaging a whopping 90.8 points per game (most in the nation). They’re favored by a significant margin, but their defense can be shaky at times.
Prediction: Oddsmakers expect a close game that is possibly the highest-scoring contest in the first round. Alabama’s firepower is tough to ignore, but their defense is bad enough to keep even mediocre offenses close, so Charleston shouldn’t be counted out. It’s not my favorite potential 13 vs. 4 March Madness upset pick, but it’s a close 2nd.
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South Region: 13 Vermont vs. 4 Duke
This is your classic David vs. Goliath matchup. The Vermont Catamounts, winners of the America East Conference are looking to pull off an upset against the powerhouse Duke Blue Devils.
13 Vermont: The Catamounts are on a hot streak having won 10 straight games. They boast a strong defense, ranked 23rd in the nation in field goal percentage defense.
4 Duke: Despite a somewhat inconsistent season, Duke has the overall talent advantage. However, they can struggle to put teams away if they don’t get hot offensively.
Prediction: Vermont’s stout defense, led by Shamir Bogues, will keep them in this game early. But Duke is no slouch on that end of the court either, and they have the better overall talent. I’d love to see the Catamounts pull off the March Madness upset, but I just don’t see it happening.
Midwest Region: 13 Samford vs. 4 Kansas
Big 12 giant Kansas faces off with a red-hot Samford team.
13 Samford: Don’t underestimate the Bulldogs! Samford comes in scorching hot, winning their last 4 games. They are going to run, run, and run some more, and pressure KU to get back on defense. The Bulldogs have the 14th fastest tempo in the country according to Kenpom and they do this by utilizing their deep bench. They boast a rotation that shoots at the 11th-best clip this season and has the 7th-best percentage from deep as well.
4 Kansas: The Jayhawks enter the tournament as losers of 4 of their previous 5 games, and it was just announced that do-everything guard Kevin McCullar Jr. will be OUT for the entire tournament. This was a team that when healthy was capable of beating anyone, as evidenced by wins over Kentucky, Tennessee, and the top two teams in the country this season, UConn and Houston.
Prediction: Kansas was an early favorite in this matchup, as would be expected between a 4 and 13 seed. But the McCullar Jr. news, along with Hunter Dickinson’s recent shoulder injury, have many liking a potential March Madness upset here. I’m gonna join the party and say that Samford is the most likely 13 seed to win in the first round.
