The Air Force Falcons are +100 to hit the over on 8.5 wins in 2023. They put up a record of 10-3 last season and won the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl.
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Air Force 2023 Strength of Schedule
Taking into account their opponents’ combined win total last year (57), Air Force owns the 10th-easiest schedule in college football.
Based on its MWC opponents’ projected win total this year (), Air Force has the -easiest conference schedule in college football.
Air Force’s schedule includes six games against teams that finished above .500 in 2022 (one against a team with nine or more wins and three against squads that picked up less than four wins).
The Falcons have five teams that made a bowl game last year on their schedule in 2023.
Air Force Projected Wins
Based on our prediction algorithm, the Falcons should win nine games this season.
Air Force won more games last season than 10 opponents they will take on this year.
Air Force’s +50000 National Championship odds are more favorable than eight of the teams it will take on this year.
The Falcons have a 50% chance of going over their season win total over/under (8.5) according to the current odds (+100).
Air Force’s implied probability is 0.2% to win the national championship according to its +50000 odds.
Air Force’s implied probability is 20.8% to win the MWC based on its +380 odds.
Air Force Last Season Performance
Last season the Falcons finished 10-3, qualifying for a bowl game and beating Baylor 30-15 in the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl.
Last season Air Force was 6-1 at home, but picked up only two road victories.
The Falcons were unbeaten as underdogs (1-0) and went 9-3 as favorites.
In the FBS the Falcons were 9-3, and in the conference overall they went 5-3.
Air Force won seven games against the spread last season, failing to cover six times.
Falcons games hit the over six out of 13 times last season.
On the defensive side of the ball, Air Force was a top-25 unit last season, ranking best by giving up only 253.4 yards per game. It ranked 57th on offense (397.7 yards per game).
Defensively, Air Force was a top-25 unit last season, ranking third-best by allowing only 13.4 points per game. It ranked 69th on offense (27.8 points per game).
While the Falcons ranked first-worst in FBS in passing offense with 70.5 passing yards per game last season, it was a different situation on defense, as they ranked second-best (157.5 passing yards per game allowed).
Air Force was a tough opponent for opposing teams in the running game last season, as it ranked top-25 in both rushing offense (best with 327.2 rushing yards per game) and rushing defense (sixth-best with 95.8 rushing yards allowed per game).
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Matt is from the Chicagoland area and has been working in Chicago sports since 2015 with stops at WGN Radio, the Chicago Blackhawks, Stadium, and NBC Sports Chicago prior to landing at Betsperts. Matt covers just about everything for Betsperts and Bleacher Nation but focuses on the NHL and college football.
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