What Will It Take for the Cubs to Make the Playoffs?

Speaking strictly statistically, things are not looking good for the 2009 Chicago Cubs.

Last night’s heartbreaking loss (haven’t they all been heartbreaking this year?), coupled with the St. Louis Cardinals’ win over the Dodgers dropped the Cubs six games back in the National League Central. Though the Cubs are just five games back in the Wild Card, they trail four teams – making a Wild Card run highly improbable.

So if it’s going to happen this year for the Cubs, it’s almost certainly going to have to be a victory in the NL Central.

But how exactly is that going to happen? And no, I don’t mean “what changes do the Cubs have to make.” I simply mean, statistically – wins and losses.

The Chicago Cubs stand at 60 – 56, with 46 games remaining.

The St. Louis Cardinals stand at 68 – 52, with 42 games remaining.

If the Cardinals play .500 ball the rest of the way (not bloodly likely given how absurdly they’ve been playing), they will finish at 89 – 73. That means to overtake the Cards, the Cubs would have to finish their last 46 games going 30 – 16, which amounts to a .652 winning percentage. Not unheard of, but a tall task.

Worse still, if the Cardinals simply continue their current pace – .567 – they will win 24 of their last 42 games, putting their final record at 92 – 70. In that scenario, the Cubs would have to go 33 – 13, a .717 winning percentage, to overtake the Cardinals.

Could the Cubs actually do it? Well, maybe.

As we have all learned – painfully – this year’s Chicago Cubs club can only beat crummy teams. The Cubs have not won a series against a winning team in three months.

But here’s the thing: the Cubs play 33 of their remaining 46 games against teams with a losing record. If the Cubs win 2/3 of their games against those losing teams (they do), and win just 1/3 against the winning teams (they do), that would project to a 26 – 16 record over the final 42 games. Barring a mini-collapse by the Cardinals, that isn’t likely to do the trick.

But that’s just the Cubs’ season averages against winning and losing teams this year. If the Cubs can manage to play .500 ball against the winning teams, and keep taking down the losers at a .667 clip, they could win 28 or 29 games to close out the year, and would have a very real shot at taking the NL Central.

It’s bleak. There’s no debating that at this point. But it ain’t over.

written by

Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

more cubs news

Pre-Gamin’: Cubs at Rangers – Lineups, Pitching Matchup, Broadcast Info, Game Thread

*SHORT COURTS: It's Time To Bring The Home Court, Home! Looking for a unique way to celebrate your athlete or team before you peruse the FIRST CHICAGO CUBS LINEUP of the Year? Don't miss out! For just one more week...

The Cubs Are Among the Most Returning-y Teams

I am still mostly incapacitated at the moment, so apologies for the short shrift on such an otherwise blessed day. In between pokes and prods, I wanted to share a chart I saw that was pretty interesting, even if unsurprising:...

Maybe the Cubs Are the Favorites in the NL Central, After All?

ESPN was the first to throw some love the Cubs way this week, with an overwhelming majority of their writers, analysts, and editors picking the Chicago Cubs to win the NL Central in 2024. But the love doesn't end there....

The Season Begins, Love for Morel, Counsell’s Value, and Other Cubs Bullets

You know where you want to spend your Opening Day morning? The hospital! Suffice to say, this is not how I imagined getting HYPED for the Cubs' opener. I guess I'll just have to think about all the possible lineup...

Cubs vs Rangers: The First Series of the Year!

Cubs vs Rangers — THE REGULAR SEASON IS HERE! Wake up and rejoice. Later tonight, the Cubs will begin their march toward October Baseball against the (reigning World Series champion) Texas Rangers in Arlington. Justin Steele is getting the nod...

The 2024 Chicago Cubs for Dummies

Boom. We made it. The offseason is over, and the Cubs regular season - and those elevated expectations - begins tomorrow. But in case you slept through the winter, I'm here to catch you up on everything you need to...

I’m Expecting More This Year, Cubs — It’s Time to Start Winning

There's no way around it: The Chicago Cubs did *not* have the offseason we hoped they might after making Craig Counsell the highest paid manager in MLB history. Not that they did poorly, mind you. Cody Bellinger, Shota Imanaga, and...

I Dug Deep on the Cubs 2024 Schedule (And I Like What I See)

Finally, with Cody Bellinger in the fold, we can start focusing more seriously on the season ahead. So today, I thought we'd take a look at the Cubs 2024 schedule. You can flip through the Cubs 2024 schedule right here...

Here’s What I’m Betting on the Cubs for Opening Day

I get it. Sports betting isn't for everyone — like, say, the interpreter for an international baseball superstar — but some of us quite enjoy it! If you are one of those people, this article is for you. Below, I'm...

WAKE UP, BASEBALL IS BACK

The day has arrived. Opening Day. The most glorious day on the baseball calendar, save for the day of each Chicago Cubs World Series win, of course. See, I get to say things like that on Opening Day. Maybe the...

Latest News

Heat vs. Trail Blazers Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Portland Trail Blazers (19-54) are heavy underdogs (+14.5) as they attempt to break an eight-game losing streak when they visit the Miami Heat (39-33) at 8:00 PM ET on Friday, March 29, 2024 at FTX Arena. The matchup airs...

Cavaliers vs. 76ers Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Cleveland Cavaliers (44-29) take the court against the Philadelphia 76ers (39-34) as 7.5-point favorites on Friday, March 29, 2024 at 7:30 PM ET on NBCS. The matchup has an over/under of 210 points.Cavaliers vs. 76ers OddsCavaliers odds to win:...

Knicks vs. Spurs Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets – Friday, March 29, 2024

The New York Knicks (44-28) are heavily favored (-10) to continue a three-game winning streak when they visit the San Antonio Spurs (17-56) at 8:00 PM ET on Friday, March 29, 2024 at AT&T Center. The contest airs on BSSW....

Wizards vs. Pistons Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Detroit Pistons (12-61) are 2.5-point underdogs as they attempt to turn around an eight-game losing streak when they visit the Washington Wizards (14-59) on Friday, March 29, 2024 at Capital One Arena. The matchup airs at 7:00 PM ET...

Pacers vs. Lakers Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Los Angeles Lakers (41-32) will attempt to extend a five-game winning streak when they hit the road to play the Indiana Pacers (41-33) on Friday, March 29, 2024 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse as just 2.5-point underdogs. The game airs at...

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Western's top two teams, the Denver Nuggets (51-22) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (50-22), hit the court at Ball Arena on Friday, March 29, 2024 at 9:00 PM ET on ALT. The Nuggets are favored by 6.5 points at home....

Warriors vs. Hornets Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Golden State Warriors (38-34) play the Charlotte Hornets (18-54) as double-digit, 11.5-point favorites on Friday, March 29, 2024 at 7:00 PM ET on NBCS. The over/under is set at 218 in the matchup.Warriors vs. Hornets OddsWarriors odds to win:...

Clippers vs. Magic Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Los Angeles Clippers (45-27) visit the Orlando Magic (42-30) after winning three road games in a row. The Clippers are favored by only 1 point in the contest, which starts at 7:00 PM ET on Friday, March 29, 2024....

Bulls vs. Nets Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Chicago Bulls (35-38) are favored by 5.5 points against the Brooklyn Nets (28-45) on Friday, March 29, 2024 at 7:30 PM ET. The matchup airs on NBCS. The matchup's over/under is 215.Bulls vs. Nets OddsBulls odds to win: -218Nets...

Kings vs. Mavericks Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets – Friday, March 29, 2024

Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks (43-29) are 1.5-point underdogs against De'Aaron Fox and the Sacramento Kings (42-30) Friday, March 29, 2024 at Golden 1 Center. The matchup begins at 10:00 PM ET on NBCS. The over/under for the matchup...

more cubs news