Projecting Chris Volstad’s Salary in Arbitration

Today is the day teams and arbitration-eligible players exchange salary figures for the 2012 season, and the Chicago Cubs have a number of arbitration eligibles this year.

One of the more interesting cases, in terms of pegging a projected 2012 salary, is recently-acquired pitcher Chris Volstad. A physical specimen whom scouts have loved for a long time, Volstad broke in the bigs at a very young age, succeeded, and then trailed off. Still just 25, Volstad is now in his first year of arbitration eligibility.

How much is a kid with that unique set of circumstances worth in his first year of arbitration? It’s one thing to be optimistic that he can continue to develop (I am), but it’s another thing to pay him today for what you hope he can be in the future, particularly when he’s already under team control. In other words, there’s no need to overpay here.

Most folks have Volstad expected to get between $2.5 million to $3 million, but, when I look at comparable players over the past couple of years, I’m not sure that isn’t a bit high for a guy who hasn’t had an ERA under 4.50 in the last three years.

(At the outset, it’s worth pointing out that, because the money the Cubs send to the Marlins for Carlos Zambrano will be $18 million, minus the amount the Cubs pay to Volstad in arbitration, you could argue this is an entirely academic discussion. Not so. Determining what Volstad should get in arbitration in his first year will be the foundation for what he could earn in 2013 and 2014. The Cubs have an incentive to keep the number as low as possible, even if it doesn’t “cost” them anything more in 2012. Even setting that aside, it’s an interesting exercise in pricing out a first year’s arbitration pay.)

Obviously, one can review Volstad’s career stats to start the arbitration salary discussion, but, because players receive far less than their market value in arbitration, using past precedent – i.e., salaries for comparable first-time arbitration-eligible players – is usually your best guide. On the statistical side of things, I’ve written a fair bit on Volstad already:

Volstad’s ERA over the past three years has been an ugly 5.21, 4.58, and 4.89, and his ERA+ was just 82, 91, and 80. His WHIP has stayed above 1.410, and his K/9 hasn’t been much better than 6.0 (though it did improve in 2011). His BB/9, on the other hand, has generally been both good and consistently improving – 3.3, 3.1, and 2.7 over the last three years. He’s just a dude who gets hit a whole lot, giving up more than a hit per inning. That leads to plenty of runs given up. And in 2011, an abnormally high number of those hits were homers, so the run situation was even worse.

Coupling those poor numbers together with a slightly downward trend, and you’ve got a guy who should be on the lower end of the salary scale for first-time arbitration-eligible pitchers. As I go on to point out in that article, however, advanced statistics suggest Volstad has been a fair bit better than those numbers suggest, so using the plain statistics, alone, to put a number on Volstad is probably unfair.

That’s why we turn to precedent.

It’s hard to find a perfect comparison this year for Volstad in terms of the kind of salary he should expect, primarily because only a handful of arbitration-eligible pitchers have yet signed.

The closest comparison might be first-time arbitration-eligible pitcher Charlie Morton, who reportedly just avoided arbitration with the Pirates for $2.445 million earlier today.

Morton’s career numbers are ugly (5.11 ERA, 1.532 WHIP, 79 ERA+), but he’s coming off the best season in his career, with a 3.83 ERA in 171.2 innings. His WHIP was still ugly – 1.532 – and his ERA+ was an even 100, but he’s said to have reinvented himself, and could continue on the upswing. He was worth a 2.2 WAR last year, far better than any of Volstad’s last three seasons (0.3, 1.8, 1.3). In short, Morton probably deserved more money this go-around than did Volstad. So if Morton got $2.445 million, you’d think Volstad’s figure would be slightly lower.

Other pitchers who’ve signed this year include part-time starter Jesse Litsch, whose numbers are considerably better than Volstad’s, but Litsch had to settle for just $975k in this, his second year of arbitration. Litsch missed some time a couple years ago with injury, so that certainly factors into the equation. But it’s hard to look at the two pitchers and fully understand how, if Litsch is worth just $975k in his second year of arbitration, Volstad is worth triple that amount in his first year.

Then there’s Red Sox lefty Andrew Miller, like Vostad, a former top prospect who hasn’t shown much at the big league level. Miller received just $1.04 million from the Red Sox for 2012, his first year of arbitration. Miller, 26, has bounced around a number of teams, has had some injury issues, and has never pitched particularly well in the bigs – he sports a career 5.79 ERA, 1.815 WHIP and 75 ERA+ in 359.1 professional innings. Volstad has been the superior pitcher to date, but three times the pitcher? Hard to say.

(Randy Wells is also a first-time arbitration-eligible pitcher, and his career numbers stack up favorably in comparison to Volstad’s. Should Wells also expect $2.5 to $3 million? I’m not so sure about that).

Because of the lack of close precedent yet this year, it’s worth looking at a couple comparable first-time arbitration-eligible pitchers in 2011.

A close comparison from last year is Armando Gallaraga, who came into his first year of arbitration in 2011 and netted a $2.3 million contract. But! Gallaraga’s ERA+ at that point was 97, compared to Volstad’s 90, and just two years prior had a brilliant, 121 ERA+ season (Volstad two years ago was brutally bad). Finally, Gallaraga’s season immediately preceding arbitration was significantly better than Volstad’s. So, if that case led to Gallaraga getting $2.3 million, how could the Cubs justify giving Volstad more than, say, $2 million?

And then there’s Phil Hughes, who received $2.7 million in 2011, his first year of arbitration. Before last year, Hughes was coming off an 18-8, 4.19 ERA (in the AL East) All-Star season. To that point in his career, his ERA+ was 106, and he had a career 4.20 ERA and 1.266 WHIP. In short, his numbers were significantly better than Volstad’s, and Hughes had arguably just had his best season. So, again: if a pitcher like that is worth $2.7 million in his first arbitration year, how could Volstad get $2.5 million?

(From 2010, one could also point to Tom Gorzelanny, whose career numbers were very similar to Volstad’s when Gorzelanny first reached arbitration before the 2010 season, and Gorzelanny got a meager $800k from the Cubs (Gorzelanny was a Super Two, mind you, which depressed his salary somewhat).)

Taking it all together, I would be surprised and a little disappointed to see Volstad get $2.5  to $3 million from the Cubs. Based on his career numbers, his down 2011 season, and, most importantly, the comparisons, it seems like he should settle more in the $1.9 to $2.1 million range.

I’m not looking to take food out of Chris Volstad’s mouth, and I don’t want this exercise to suggest that I’m not excited about his future with the Cubs. I think he could prove to be a very nice surprise over the next few years.

But establishing an appropriate first year arbitration salary for a pitcher like Volstad is a difficult process, and can get a little ugly. It’s important, however, for the Cubs to get this right, because a few extra hundred thousand this year could mean an extra $1 million in 2013, and an extra $2 million in 2014. That ain’t nothing.

written by

Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

more cubs news

The Cubs Are Among the Most Returning-y Teams

I am still mostly incapacitated at the moment, so apologies for the short shrift on such an otherwise blessed day. In between pokes and prods, I wanted to share a chart I saw that was pretty interesting, even if unsurprising:...

Maybe the Cubs Are the Favorites in the NL Central, After All?

ESPN was the first to throw some love the Cubs way this week, with an overwhelming majority of their writers, analysts, and editors picking the Chicago Cubs to win the NL Central in 2024. But the love doesn't end there....

The Season Begins, Love for Morel, Counsell’s Value, and Other Cubs Bullets

You know where you want to spend your Opening Day morning? The hospital! Suffice to say, this is not how I imagined getting HYPED for the Cubs' opener. I guess I'll just have to think about all the possible lineup...

Cubs vs Rangers: The First Series of the Year!

Cubs vs Rangers — THE REGULAR SEASON IS HERE! Wake up and rejoice. Later tonight, the Cubs will begin their march toward October Baseball against the (reigning World Series champion) Texas Rangers in Arlington. Justin Steele is getting the nod...

The 2024 Chicago Cubs for Dummies

Boom. We made it. The offseason is over, and the Cubs regular season - and those elevated expectations - begins tomorrow. But in case you slept through the winter, I'm here to catch you up on everything you need to...

I’m Expecting More This Year, Cubs — It’s Time to Start Winning

There's no way around it: The Chicago Cubs did *not* have the offseason we hoped they might after making Craig Counsell the highest paid manager in MLB history. Not that they did poorly, mind you. Cody Bellinger, Shota Imanaga, and...

I Dug Deep on the Cubs 2024 Schedule (And I Like What I See)

Finally, with Cody Bellinger in the fold, we can start focusing more seriously on the season ahead. So today, I thought we'd take a look at the Cubs 2024 schedule. You can flip through the Cubs 2024 schedule right here...

Here’s What I’m Betting on the Cubs for Opening Day

I get it. Sports betting isn't for everyone — like, say, the interpreter for an international baseball superstar — but some of us quite enjoy it! If you are one of those people, this article is for you. Below, I'm...

WAKE UP, BASEBALL IS BACK

The day has arrived. Opening Day. The most glorious day on the baseball calendar, save for the day of each Chicago Cubs World Series win, of course. See, I get to say things like that on Opening Day. Maybe the...

Wrigley Field is Gonna Be Lit This Year (As in New Colored Lights!)

Last year, the Cubs started using their new LED outfield lights to do a little dancing display during 'Go Cubs Go,' lighting along with the song and throwing in a W. It was very fun and I liked it. This...

Latest News

Braves vs. Phillies: Free Live Stream, TV Channel, How to Watch

Ronald Acuna Jr. and the Atlanta Braves take on Kyle Schwarber and the Philadelphia Phillies in their season opener on Friday, with first pitch at 3:05 PM ET.See how to watch the Atlanta-Philadelphia matchup below.When is Braves vs. Phillies and...

Jonas Valančiūnas Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Bucks – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The New Orleans Pelicans face the Milwaukee Bucks at 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, and one of the 3-pointer props available for this matchup requires only one trifecta from Jonas Valančiūnas.Jonas Valančiūnas' Three-Pointer Prop Odds vs. the BucksJonas Valanciunas' over/under...

Top 25 College Basketball Picks and Best Bets: March 28

The Illinois Fighting Illini and the Iowa State Cyclones hit the court in one of four games on the college basketball slate on Thursday that include a ranked team.How to Bet on Top 25 Games[lasso rel="draftkings-promo-1" id="299003"]Top 25 Games for...

What Does a Chicago Bears NFL Draft Trade Down Look Like?

You'd think we'd be well-versed in trade-back options after months of wondering what kind of haul it would take for the Bears to move off taking quarterback Caleb Williams with the first pick of the 2024 NFL Draft. But trading...

Diamondbacks vs. Rockies Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The Arizona Diamondbacks start their season as home favorites (-230) in a matchup with the Colorado Rockies on Thursday at 10:10 PM ET, live on ARID from Chase Field.Zac Gallen will get the ball for Arizona while Colorado will counter...

Mariners vs. Red Sox Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The Seattle Mariners are moneyline favorites (-154) to begin their season with a home win over the Boston Red Sox on Thursday at 10:10 PM ET, live on NESN.Seattle's Luis Castillo gets the start, and he'll go against Boston's Brayan...

Guardians vs. Athletics Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The Cleveland Guardians start their season as road favorites (-156) in a matchup with the Oakland Athletics on Thursday at 10:07 PM ET, live on NBCS-CA from Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum.Cleveland's Shane Bieber and Oakland's Alex Wood have been named the...

Damian Lillard Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Pelicans – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The Milwaukee Bucks face the New Orleans Pelicans on Thursday at 8:00 PM ET, and if the Bucks' Damian Lillard drains four 3-pointers, he'll beat his over/under.Damian Lillard's Three-Pointer Prop Odds vs. the PelicansDamian Lillard's over/under for three-pointers in this...

Brook Lopez Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Pelicans – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The Milwaukee Bucks face the New Orleans Pelicans at 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, and one of the 3-pointer over/unders available for this matchup requires two trifectas from Brook Lopez.Brook Lopez's Three-Pointer Prop Odds vs. the PelicansBrook Lopez's over/under for...

Giannis Antetokounmpo Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Pelicans – Thursday, March 28, 2024

On Thursday at 8:00 PM ET, the Milwaukee Bucks meet the New Orleans Pelicans, and Giannis Antetokounmpo's 3-pointer prop for this clash requires just one trey.Giannis Antetokounmpo's Three-Pointer Prop Odds vs. the PelicansGiannis Antetokounmpo's over/under for three-pointers in this game:...

more cubs news