The 2013 Cubs Have a 3% Chance of Winning 91 Games and Other Bullets

anthony rizzo happy celebrationWith our second kid on the way in about a month – a boy, this one – we’ve entered that crazy preparation mode that every set of soon-to-be parents (or soon-to-be-again parents) enters. I spent my night last night assembling some kind of wooden thing that is important for the future of the family or some such thing. I do what I’m told. Now we’re off to Target to buy them out of baby-related supplies.

  • On paper, after accounting for the not-yet-but-will-be additions of Carlos Villanueva and Scott Hairston, FanGraphs’ Bradley Woodrum calculates that the Cubs’ projected win total is in the 77 to 79 win range. Further, the calculations show that the Cubs have a 3% chance of reaching 91 wins, which is a pretty easy proxy for a playoff team. Teams routinely “luck” into winning five to ten more games than the numbers say they should have, so if the Cubs are truly a 79 win team on paper, winning 85 games isn’t that far out of the realm of possibility. That said, I have trouble accepting the 77 to 79 win range, largely because I believe that, if the Cubs aren’t clearly in the race come early July, they’re going to look to sell off. And once you start the sell-off, that win total will drop rapidly. I’m not trying to be pessimistic about the 2013 Cubs, just realistic – a 25-win improvement is an exceedingly rare thing, and tends to come where a team has added multiple big-time pieces AND has multiple young players on the verge of a breakout. Is that the Cubs? You could make the argument, and, as the season approaches, we’ll probably make those arguments. For now, I simply think it’s interesting to point out where the projections say the Cubs are expected to fall.
  • MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo has started putting together his top ten positional prospect lists in the lead-up to his revised top 100 prospects for 2013, and his shortstop list features Javier Baez in the number three spot, behind only Jurickson Profar and Francisco Lindor (ahead of Xander Bogaerts). Mayo’s remarks on Baez: “Taken No. 9 overall in the 2011 Draft, just one spot after Lindor, Baez might be the more dynamic pure hitter of the two, even if Lindor is the better defender. Baez’s plus bat speed will allow him to hit for average and power, both of which have already been on display, and he will improve as he refines his approach. He’s not without defensive skills, with a strong arm and good hands, and more folks are thinking he can stay at shortstop than did when he was coming out of the Florida high school ranks. Even if Baez has to slide to third base, his bat will profile just fine there.”
  • A profile on relief prospect Tony Zych from CSN. He’ll be a fun one to watch in Spring Training, and, if his progress continues in the first half, he’s a guy you could see at Wrigley in the second half. Zych came in for some love – and info – on this week’s podcast, by the way.
  • Another prospecting bit from Vine Line, this one on relatively new Cubs pitching prospect Barret Loux. In Loux, we might get to see just how far having four average pitches can get you – and that’s not necessarily a knock.
  • The 2013 Under Armour All-America Baseball Game – a showcase for the top high school prospects in the country – will be at Wrigley once again this year. The game is August 24 at 1:30pm CT, and it’ll be on MLB Network.
  • I was on Chicagoland Sports Radio‘s Jmack and Nate Vash Show (that’d be Jason McKie and Nate Vasher, for you Bears fans) yesterday, which was fun. I’ve got an mp3 of the appearance that I’d like to share for those who missed it, but I’m still working on the logistics of that. So, for now, this Bullet is mostly just a pat on my back.
  • Lip-reading umpire/manager fights. It turns out that managers curse a lot. Who knew?
  • Stalking is a scary, uncool thing, and Theo Epstein’s stalker is going to be in some trouble.
  • written by

    Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

    more cubs news

    No Rizzo, Musgrove Surgery, Cardinals Coaches, Playoff Schedule, and Other Cubs Bullets

    I thought season two of 'Rings of Power' was solid. I think you do have to be pretty into that fantasy world overall to REALLY love it, but even as more of a casual, I just enjoyed the high quality....

    Nick Mullens Fantasy: 2024 Outlook, Projections, Stats, Points & ADP

    What can we count on from Nick Mullens this season from a fantasy football perspective? Keep reading to find out more about the Minnesota Vikings QB and his season-long prospects.Looking at last year's season stats, Mullens passed for 1,306 yards...

    The Brewers’ Quick Exit Should Be a Reminder for the Cubs Front Office About Goal-Setting

    This year, the Milwaukee Brewers (93-69) were FAR better than the Chicago Cubs (83-79) in the regular season, winning the NL Central with a comfortable 10-game lead in the division. Unfortunately for Milwaukee, the Phillies (95-67) and Dodgers (98-64) were...

    Top Japanese Starting Pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano Reportedly Plans to Come to MLB This Offseason

    I always watch closely the pool of international players coming over to Major League Baseball anyway, but now that it's clear the Cubs are trying to build out a more explicit pipeline from Japan to Chicago, I monitor the NPB...

    MLB Pipeline’s Updated Top-100 Prospect List Features EIGHT Cubs, the Most in Baseball

    Get it all out up front: big league wins are all that matters, Cubs are at home during the playoffs, prove it on the field, etc., etc. All true. All fine. But having loads of top-tier prospects is inarguably a...

    Minnesota Front Office Shakeup, Brewers Bounced, Coaching Search, Playoffs, Prior, and Other Cubs Bullets

    I hope you and your friends and family have a very nice weekend ... Another big front office change is coming, with the Minnesota Twins announcing that Thad Levine, who has been the team's GM for nearly a decade, is...

    REPORT: Cincinnati Reds Hiring Terry Francona as Manager

    I gotta say, I'm a little bit stunned. I didn't think the Cincinnati Reds quite had it in them to do what it would take to lure a top-tier manager this offseason, but apparently it's happening. Terry Francona is coming...

    The Brewers Blew a 9th Inning Lead to Get Bounced from the Playoffs by the Mets

    The Milwaukee Brewers were a better team than the Chicago Cubs this season. Much, much better, actually. But the outcome for the Brewers, in the end, winds up pretty similar to the one for the Cubs: home by October 4....

    Sammy Sosa Talks About a Cubs Reunion, Past Mistakes

    Sammy Sosa was back in Chicago this past weekend for, among other things, a Club 400 fundraiser in support of Cubs fans in need. It was just Sosa's second visit to Chicago since 2007, but encouragingly, both of those visits...

    Chicago Cubs 2025 Draft Position and Lottery Odds

    With the regular season in the rearview, the 2025 MLB Draft Lottery Odds are now fully set, as well as the spot where the Chicago Cubs will be picking after the first round. The Cubs this year finished with the...

    Latest News

    Dodgers vs. Padres Game 2: Injury Report, Updates & Probable Starters – Oct. 6

    The Los Angeles Dodgers are at home for Game 2 of the NLDS against the San Diego Padres on Sunday at 8:03 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers lead the series 1-0.Want to see who's playing for the Dodgers...

    Best MLB Prop Bets Today, October 6, 2024

    The MLB Playoff schedule today, which includes the San Diego Padres taking on the Los Angeles Dodgers as one of two contests, is not one to miss.MLB prop bets for Sunday's games are available, so if you're interested in placing...

    AC Milan vs. ACF Fiorentina Prediction, Picks, Live Odds – October 6

    The upcoming fixture list in Serie A includes fifth-place AC Milan at 13th-place ACF Fiorentina on Sunday, October 6 at 2:45 PM ET. Our game prediction can be found below.AC Milan vs. ACF Fiorentina Prediction & OddsAC Milan Moneyline: +116ACF...

    Atletico Madrid vs. Real Sociedad Prediction, Picks, Live Odds – October 6

    Two teams at opposite ends of LaLiga will meet on Sunday, when fourth-place Atletico Madrid plays at 15th-place Real Sociedad. Find our prediction for this matchup below.Atletico Madrid vs. Real Sociedad Prediction & OddsAtletico Madrid Moneyline: +160Real Sociedad Moneyline: +191Draw...

    VfB Stuttgart vs. TSG Hoffenheim Prediction, Picks, Live Odds – October 6

    VfB Stuttgart (ninth) is above TSG Hoffenheim (16th) in the table, and the two teams will square off in the Bundesliga on Sunday. For our prediction on this matchup, read on.VfB Stuttgart vs. TSG Hoffenheim Prediction & OddsVfB Stuttgart Moneyline:...

    New York City FC vs. Nashville SC Prediction, Picks, Live Odds – October 6

    New York City FC and Nashville SC have already played once in MLS this season (Nashville SC won 1-0) and they'll do so again on Sunday at Red Bull Arena. For our prediction on this matchup, keep reading.New York City...

    Paris Saint-Germain vs. OGC Nice Prediction, Picks, Live Odds – October 6

    Paris Saint-Germain and OGC Nice will clash on Sunday in Ligue 1. PSG topped Stade Rennes last time out, 3-1, but Nice drew with RC Lens 0-0. Below, you can find our prediction for this contest.Paris Saint-Germain vs. OGC Nice...

    Dodgers vs. Padres: NLDS Game 2 Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

    The Los Angeles Dodgers, with Jack Flaherty on the mound, host the San Diego Padres (who will start Yu Darvish) in Game 2 of the NLDS, at 8:03 p.m. ET on Sunday. The Dodgers have a 1-0 lead in the...

    Bayern Munich vs. Eintracht Frankfurt Prediction, Picks, Live Odds – October 6

    The top two teams in the Bundesliga, Bayern Munich and Eintracht Frankfurt, will clash on Sunday. Find our prediction for this matchup below.Bayern Munich vs. Eintracht Frankfurt Prediction & OddsBayern Munich Moneyline: -199Eintracht Frankfurt Moneyline: +446Draw Moneyline: +368Predicted Score: Bayern...

    RC Lens vs. Strasbourg Prediction, Picks, Live Odds – October 6

    RC Lens, currently sixth in Ligue 1, plays at eighth-place Strasbourg on Sunday, in a matchup of top-half clubs. Below, you can find our prediction for this contest.RC Lens vs. Strasbourg Prediction & OddsRC Lens Moneyline: +147Strasbourg Moneyline: +186Draw Moneyline:...

    more cubs news