One of the Better Statistical Discussions You’ll Read This Year – Well, or at Least Today

homer at the chalkboardEarlier this week, there was a dust-up about the WAR statistic (Wins Above Replacement), which, yes, is quickly becoming a tired old fight.

ESPN’s Jim Caple wrote a nice piece about WAR, but one that ultimately makes an argument that doesn’t need to be made. The essence of the argument was, “WAR shouldn’t be used as the only statistic.” I don’t think anyone would dispute that in this day and age.

So it’s quite a credit to FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron that he was able to write a response piece that didn’t suffer from the same level of “did this really need to be written”-itis. Indeed, Cameron’s article – “What WAR is Good For” – is one of the better statistical analysis pieces I’ve read in quite some time.

The thrust of Cameron’s piece, as indicated by the title, is that WAR – like so many other statistics – is valuable because it seeks to answer a question that we all have about baseball. Indeed, the real value in the article to me is the idea that statistics are answers to questions, and the better statistics tend to be the ones that answer the narrowest, simplest questions.

Here’s a particularly engaging section from Cameron, which will become my go-to attack on W/L record, at least with respect to those persons who appreciate nuance:

Whether it is batting average, strikeout rate, swing percentage, or average velocity, each one was designed to answer a pretty simple question. How often does that player get a hit? How often does he swing? How hard did that pitcher throw his fastball? These are questions that are worth asking, and so we track things in baseball that allow us to answer those questions with data, assuring us of getting a pretty accurate answer in most cases. In fact, I think a litmus test for the usefulness of a statistic can be simply translating the definition into a question and figuring out how often anyone ever asks that question?

Let’s take Wins for a pitcher, for instance. For a long time, they’ve been hailed as one of the most important statistics in baseball, but the actual question that statistic is answering goes something like this.

“How many times did that pitcher complete at least five innings, leave the game with his team having outscored the opponents through the point at which he was removed, and then watch his relievers finish the game for him without surrendering the lead that his teammates helped create in the first place?”

No one would ever ask that question. It’s not something that’s worth knowing, nor does it help anyone understand what actually happened in any real way. And that’s one of the reasons why W-L record for a pitcher has been marginalized and will eventually just be discarded, since it serves no real purpose. It answers a useless question, making it mostly a useless statistic.

Magnificent.

The entire article is well worth your time, especially if you’re endeavoring to broaden your statistical background. Cameron’s approach is largely inclusive – more stats are a good thing – which is a good attitude to have in an age where so many statistics are available to us. In that way, Cameron and Caple ultimately agree: WAR, like many other stats, is best used as a piece of the puzzle. It offers one answer – or, perhaps more accurately, one slice of the answer pie – to one of the questions worth asking.

written by

Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

more cubs news

Justin Steele Injury Update: New Classification, MRI Tomorrow, IL Stint Coming? Steele and Counsell Speak

A significant update on Justin Steele came from Craig Counsell tonight after the Cubs extra innings loss in Texas. In short: Yes, a stint on the Injured List is likely for Justin Steele. But we still don't know how severe...

Enhanced Box Score: Rangers 4, Cubs 3 – March 28, 2024

It took exactly one day for the Cubs' ace to sustain what may be a significant injury, for their closer to blow a save, for the umpires to significantly impact the outcome of a critical play (this time in the...

OMG: Michael Busch Scored the 9th Inning, GO-AHEAD Run, Because He Just Never Stopped Running

That was absolutely incredible. To all the little kids out there, when your coach tells you to never stop running, this is why. Rookie Cubs 1B Michael Busch (the guy the Cubs got from the Dodgers this offseason to be...

Pre-Gamin’: Cubs at Rangers – Lineups, Pitching Matchup, Broadcast Info, Game Thread

*SHORT COURTS: It's Time To Bring The Home Court, Home! Looking for a unique way to celebrate your athlete or team before you peruse the FIRST CHICAGO CUBS LINEUP of the Year? Don't miss out! For just one more week...

The Cubs Are Among the Most Returning-y Teams

I am still mostly incapacitated at the moment, so apologies for the short shrift on such an otherwise blessed day. In between pokes and prods, I wanted to share a chart I saw that was pretty interesting, even if unsurprising:...

Maybe the Cubs Are the Favorites in the NL Central, After All?

ESPN was the first to throw some love the Cubs way this week, with an overwhelming majority of their writers, analysts, and editors picking the Chicago Cubs to win the NL Central in 2024. But the love doesn't end there....

The Season Begins, Love for Morel, Counsell’s Value, and Other Cubs Bullets

You know where you want to spend your Opening Day morning? The hospital! Suffice to say, this is not how I imagined getting HYPED for the Cubs' opener. I guess I'll just have to think about all the possible lineup...

Cubs vs Rangers: The First Series of the Year!

Cubs vs Rangers — THE REGULAR SEASON IS HERE! Wake up and rejoice. Later tonight, the Cubs will begin their march toward October Baseball against the (reigning World Series champion) Texas Rangers in Arlington. Justin Steele is getting the nod...

The 2024 Chicago Cubs for Dummies

Boom. We made it. The offseason is over, and the Cubs regular season - and those elevated expectations - begins tomorrow. But in case you slept through the winter, I'm here to catch you up on everything you need to...

I’m Expecting More This Year, Cubs — It’s Time to Start Winning

There's no way around it: The Chicago Cubs did *not* have the offseason we hoped they might after making Craig Counsell the highest paid manager in MLB history. Not that they did poorly, mind you. Cody Bellinger, Shota Imanaga, and...

Latest News

Braves vs. Phillies Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Atlanta Braves start their season as road favorites (-125) in a matchup with the Philadelphia Phillies on Friday at 3:05 PM ET, live on BSSO from Citizens Bank Park.Spencer Strider will get the ball for Atlanta while Philadelphia will...

Washington State vs. Illinois Women’s Basketball: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

Two hot teams meet when the Washington State Cougars (21-14) host the Illinois Fighting Illini (17-15) on April 1, 2024. The Cougars will put their three-game win streak on the line against the Fighting Illini, who have won three straight.On...

Villanova vs. Penn State Women’s Basketball: Free Live Stream, TV Channel, How to Watch

The Villanova Wildcats (21-12) will try to extend a three-game winning streak when they host the Penn State Lady Lions (22-12) on April 1, 2024. The Lady Lions have also won three games in a row.In its previous game, Villanova...

Brewers vs. Mets Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Milwaukee Brewers open their season as -110 favorites in a road matchup with the New York Mets on Friday at 1:40 PM ET, live on SNY.Freddy Peralta gets the starting nod for Milwaukee while Jose Quintana is New York's...

Braves vs. Phillies Probable Starting Pitchers – March 29

The Philadelphia Phillies (0-0) host the Atlanta Braves (0-0) in an Opening Day contest at 3:05 PM ET on Friday.The Braves will call on Spencer Strider against the Phillies and Zack Wheeler.Braves vs. Phillies Pitcher Matchup and Game InfoWhen: Friday,...

Suns vs. Thunder Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets – Friday, March 29, 2024

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder (50-22) are 2.5-point underdogs against Kevin Durant and the Phoenix Suns (43-30) Friday, March 29, 2024 at Paycom Center. The game starts at 8:00 PM ET on KSBI. The matchup's point total is...

Brewers vs. Mets Probable Starting Pitchers – March 29

The Milwaukee Brewers (0-0) and the New York Mets (0-0) face off on Friday at Citi Field for Opening Day. First pitch is at 1:40 PM ET.The Brewers will look to Freddy Peralta versus the Mets and Jose Quintana.Brewers vs....

Cavaliers vs. 76ers Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Philadelphia 76ers (39-34) are 8-point underdogs against the Cleveland Cavaliers (44-29) at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse on Friday, March 29, 2024. The game starts at 7:30 PM ET on NBCS. The matchup's point total is set at 212.5.Our computer predictions...

Heat vs. Trail Blazers Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Portland Trail Blazers (19-54) will attempt to end an eight-game losing streak when they visit the Miami Heat (39-33) on Friday, March 29, 2024 at FTX Arena as heavy, 14-point underdogs. The contest airs at 8:00 PM ET on...

Rockets vs. Jazz Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Utah Jazz (29-44) will try to end a seven-game losing streak when they host the Houston Rockets (37-35) on Friday, March 29, 2024 at Vivint Smart Home Arena as 7.5-point underdogs. The contest airs at 9:30 PM ET on...

more cubs news