Obsessive Tanaka Watch: Yankees Pursuit, Expected Contract, Teams Out?

Dec 27, 2013

The deadline for signing Masahiro Tanaka is January 24, but that doesn’t mean he can’t come to terms with a team much sooner than that. Worth keeping in mind …

To that point, the Yankees have already contacted Tanaka’s agent, Casey Close, to start discussions, according to Marc Carig. The Yankees have long been viewed as the prohibitive favorite on Tanaka – though the reasons for their favorite status have changed as the posting system evolved – so the fact that they are being aggressive is no surprise. Increasingly, it’s becoming accepted that the Yankees will not be burdened by the $189 million luxury tax cap, regardless of the outcome of the Alex Rodriguez suspension. In other words, according to the prevailing rumors of the day, the Yankees are going to go all out to get Tanaka, regardless of the financial implications. Those implications are significant: not only are the Yankees due to pay 40% of the amount they are over the tax cap (not really a big deal – if they go over by $10 million, that’s just another $4 million for them to pay), but they also forfeit certain revenue-sharing refund dollars that could amount to tens and tens of millions of dollars over the course of the next few years. Is Tanaka really worth $20 million (posting fee) plus $120 million (contract estimate) plus $10 million (luxury tax hit estimate) plus untold millions tied to the revenue-sharing rebates? That’s not a loaded question, because the answer may well be, “yeah, he might.” The Yankees need starting pitching like whoa, and missing the playoffs is a huge financial hit to them.

How much will Tanaka cost? We’ve all been throwing out numbers blindly, but it sounds like we’re in the right range, according to sources of Bob Nightengale’s – they say the bidding starts at $17 million per year. At six years, that’s just north of $100 million – plus $20 million for the posting fee, and you’ve got the six-year, $120 million minimum we’ve all kind of implicitly been starting with. For me, I can easily see the bidding reaching six years and $120 million (just for the contract), or even seven years and $140 million.

Gabe Kapler writes that he’s also heard six years and $100 million will be the starting point, and he does some WAR/$ calculating that suggests Tanaka will be worth something right there in the six year, $120/$125 million range. There’s so much estimating and projection involved there that I’m not really going to do much WAR calculating with Tanaka. You’ve just gotta trust your scouts, and roll the dice on the upside (and you’ve got to be in a position where a $120 million bust out isn’t going to cripple your organization).

A baseball official tells the New York Daily News that the Mariners are “going to be a factor” in the Tanaka chase. Maybe so – with huge dollars already committed to Robinson Cano, the Mariners’ window to compete is suddenly “immediately.” Tanaka would help. Will ownership support making two enormous bets in the same offseason? If rumors of a possible sale in the next few years are true (publicly, Mariners ownership denies it), the answer easily could be yes.

The Dodgers continue to play it coy about having any interest in signing Tanaka, which is humorous given that every outsider lists them among the top two or three possible landing spots. Are they just engaging in gamesmanship, or are they seriously going to pass on an opportunity to SIGN ALL THE PLAYERS?

Peter Abraham writes that there is no sign yet that the Red Sox are interested in Tanaka. Once again, their name comes up frequently from outside observers, but with an overflowing staff, a bad previous experience in this arena, and a new-found aversion to significant, long-term commitments, there are reasons to question the Red Sox’s involvement (or least, there are reasons to credit sources who suggest that the Red Sox aren’t going to be serious suitors). Still, I can’t quite count them out.

Evan Grant does some serious shuffling and calculating to come up with ways the Rangers could afford Tanaka, though he concedes it’s a longshot.

Joel Sherman lists the Cubs among eight contenders, with the Yankees, for Tanaka, saying that folks in the industry expect the Cubs to be “significant bidders.” Ignore that part about not competing until 2016. Hopefully Tanaka ignores it, as well.

written by

Brett Taylor

Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

more cubs news

Chicago Cubs

Cubs Roster Moves: Wisdom and Taillon Are Back, Wesneski and Mastrobuoni Are Out

Even with tonight's rainout, the Chicago Cubs are still making some roster moves. When Patrick Wisdom was removed (perfectly healthy) from the I-Cubs game in the 4th inning on Wednesday, we had an idea of what was coming next. When...

Michael Cerami

Apr 18, 2024

Chicago Cubs

Tonight’s Cubs-Marlins Game Has Been Postponed

The weather wasn't going to cooperate for Jameson Taillon's season debut, and tonight's Cubs-Marlins tilt has been postponed. The game will instead be part of a split-doubleheader this Saturday, with the first game at 1:20pm CT and the second at...

Brett Taylor

Apr 18, 2024

Chicago Cubs

MLBits: Paul Skenes Could Make His MLB Debut Any Day (But Probably Won’t), Red-Hot Orioles, Houck’s Maddux, More

If you're into tracking young pitchers with star potential like I am—as I watch Jack Leiter's debut while typing this column—then you're probably itching to see Pirates top prospect Paul Skenes make his way to Pittsburgh sooner than later. While...

Patrick K. Flowers

Apr 18, 2024

Chicago Cubs

Back to Wrigley: Cubs vs Marlins – Series Preview

Cubs vs Marlins — Whew! The Cubs got through their first West Coast road trip of the year, and did so with a winning record (5-4) against the Padres, Mariners, and Diamondbacks. They definitely let a couple games slip out...

Michael Cerami

Apr 18, 2024

Chicago Cubs

Taillon Coming Back, Busch’s Integrity and Success, Bad News for the White Sox, Wicks, Hendricks, and Other Cubs Bullets

As the father of a toddler who was sick for an entire week — the same week Brett was out from his back surgery and the Cubs were playing almost exclusively late-night ballgames on the West Coast — I was...

Michael Cerami

Apr 18, 2024

Chicago Cubs

Cubs Farm Report | April 18, 2024: Caissie, Alcántara Go Yard, South Bend and Myrtle Beach Smoked, More

Kevin Alcántara hit his first home run of the season for the Tennessee Smokies last night, and Owen Caissie hit his first Triple-A home run for the Iowa Cubs as Iowa and Tennessee secured victories. The same can't be said...

Patrick K. Flowers

Apr 18, 2024

Chicago Cubs

Cody Bellinger Sticking With Scott Boras

Given the way the offseason played out for super agent Scott Boras's top available clients - Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell, and Jordan Montgomery - you wouldn't be shocked to see some unhappiness behind the scenes. Did Boras overplay...

Brett Taylor

Apr 18, 2024

Chicago Cubs

You’ll Be Even More Impressed with Hayden Wesneski, When You Hear What it Took to Get Him to Arizona

Hayden Wesneski was the hero of yesterday's finale and series-win over the Arizona Diamondbacks, coming in to clean up Jordan Wicks' (little) mess in the 5th ... and then tossing 4 shutout innings to save an over-used bullpen and help...

Michael Cerami

Apr 18, 2024

Chicago Cubs

Offseason Cubs Target Robert Stephenson Now Out for the Year

Hand up, I really wanted the Cubs to sign reliever Robert Stephenson this offseason. I felt like they could use one more impact arm (accurate), and I felt like Stephenson was one of the best available (about that ... )....

Brett Taylor

Apr 18, 2024

Chicago Cubs

Rays Closer Pete Fairbanks With a Wonderful and Brutally Honest Line About His Performance

Rays closer Pete Fairbanks has been an extremely effective reliever the last four years, posting a 2.66 ERA from 2020 through 2023, with a 34.8% K rate and worth 4.1 WAR. But things have started out much more rough for...

Brett Taylor

Apr 18, 2024

How to Watch

How to Watch Pirates vs. Red Sox: Live Stream or on TV

The Pittsburgh Pirates (11-8), with Quinn Priester on the mound, host the Boston Red Sox (10-10) who will counter with Brayan Bello, at 6:40 PM ET on Friday in a series opener.If you're intending to watch this game, keep reading...

Data Skrive

Apr 18, 2024

How to Watch

Padres vs. Blue Jays: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

On Friday at 9:40 PM ET, Fernando Tatis Jr. and the San Diego Padres (11-10) take on George Springer and the Toronto Blue Jays (10-9) at PETCO Park.The article below will give you everything you need to know to watch...

Data Skrive

Apr 18, 2024

How to Watch

Giants vs. Diamondbacks: Free Live Stream, TV Channel, How to Watch

Blake Snell will take the ball for the San Francisco Giants (8-11) when they host starter Jordan Montgomery and the Arizona Diamondbacks (9-10) on Friday, with first pitch at 10:15 PM ET.If you're planning on watching this game, keep reading...

Data Skrive

Apr 18, 2024

How to Watch

Dodgers vs. Mets: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

The Los Angeles Dodgers (12-9), led by Mookie Betts, host Pete Alonso and the New York Mets (10-8) at 10:10 PM ET on Friday in a series opener.The article below will provide you with everything you need to know to...

Data Skrive

Apr 18, 2024

Picks

Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Series April 19-21: Odds, Starting Pitchers & Predictions

The Minnesota Twins will be hosting the Detroit Tigers for a three-game series, with the first matchup getting underway at 8:10 PM ET on Friday, April 19.Twins vs. Tigers Series Info Tigers @ Twins Time: Friday, April 19 at 8:10...

Data Skrive

Apr 18, 2024

Picks

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers Series April 19-21: Odds, Starting Pitchers & Predictions

In the opener of a three-game series, on Friday, April 19 at 8:15 PM ET, the St. Louis Cardinals are hosting the Milwaukee Brewers.Cardinals vs. Brewers Series Info Brewers @ Cardinals Time: Friday, April 19 at 8:15 PM ET Cardinals...

Data Skrive

Apr 18, 2024

Picks

Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles Series April 19-21: Odds, Starting Pitchers & Predictions

On Friday, April 19 at 7:40 PM ET, a three-game series between the Kansas City Royals and the visiting Baltimore Orioles will get underway.Royals vs. Orioles Series Info Orioles @ Royals Time: Friday, April 19 at 7:40 PM ET Royals...

Data Skrive

Apr 18, 2024

Picks

Colorado Rockies vs. Seattle Mariners Series April 19-21: Odds, Starting Pitchers & Predictions

The Seattle Mariners will be on the road, opening a three-game set against the Colorado Rockies on Friday, April 19 at 8:40 PM ET.Rockies vs. Mariners Series Info Mariners @ Rockies Time: Friday, April 19 at 8:40 PM ET Rockies...

Data Skrive

Apr 18, 2024

Picks

San Diego Padres vs. Toronto Blue Jays Series April 19-21: Odds, Starting Pitchers & Predictions

The San Diego Padres will be hosting the Toronto Blue Jays for a three-game series, with the first matchup getting underway at 9:40 PM ET on Friday, April 19.Padres vs. Blue Jays Series Info Blue Jays @ Padres Time: Friday,...

Data Skrive

Apr 18, 2024

Picks

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets Series April 19-21: Odds, Starting Pitchers & Predictions

In the opener of a three-game series, on Friday, April 19 at 10:10 PM ET, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the New York Mets.Dodgers vs. Mets Series Info Mets @ Dodgers Time: Friday, April 19 at 10:10 PM ET...

Data Skrive

Apr 18, 2024

Obsessive Tanaka Watch: Yankees Pursuit, Expected Contract, Teams Out?

Read More

more cubs news

Latest News

more cubs news

Most Popular

Most Popular

Latest News

Most Popular

Most Popular