Lukewarm Stove: Pitching Free Agents, David Price Trade, Bonifacio, More

lukewarm stoveWe’re almost a week into February and there are still so many free agents out there. CBA changes + Tanaka + ideological shifts within the game = seriously protracted free agency. I wonder if the influx of TV dollars and the explosion of contracts for top free agents is actually playing a role, too, by artificially driving up the demands of middle tier free agents to levels teams simply aren’t going to meet.

  • The prices on free agent pitchers tied to draft pick compensation keeps cratering, with Buster Olney reporting that Ervin Santana may now be down to asking for a three-year deal. I don’t see the Cubs in on Santana (or Ubaldo Jimenez) at this point, but following their story is still pretty important, as it could impact the near-term market for Jeff Samardzija. Moreover, the further their prices fall, the less attractive Samardzija looks, given the hefty acquisition cost.
  • Relatedly, Bob Nightengale reports that Bronson Arroyo is down to three finalists for his services (probably on a two-year deal): the Diamondbacks, the Dodgers, and the Orioles. The bookends are reasonable trade possibilities in a Samardzija deal, and the Diamondbacks are viewed by Nightengale as the leader.
  • So, the Braves dropped $135 million on first baseman Freddie Freeman yesterday, locking up the 24-year-old’s next eight years (they already had him under control for three), and sending most of the ‘net to its calculators to determine whether the Braves just made a big mistake. While the Cubs got seven years of Anthony Rizzo (a probably lesser overall player, but in the ballpark) for just $41 million, the Braves are paying three times that amount for one more (post-30) year of Freeman. It’s not an apples-to-apples comparison, of course, because Freeman was already entering his first year of arbitration (whereas Rizzo still had a couple years to go before he reached arbitration). Still, that’s a huge difference, and I imagine every young pre-arb star was very happy to see that deal come down.
  • Apropos of a number of discussions around here about the quality pitching in the free agent class next year, here’s FanGraphs on just that. All of Max Scherzer, James Shields, Jon Lester, Homer Bailey and Justin Masterson figure to be pricey if they reach free agency, but two or three of them might be picked off by extensions in the next month or so. Given the Cubs’ need for impact pitching, and the desirability of, like, trying to be decent in 2015, you’re obviously rooting for the majority of these guys to hit free agency.
  • Jim Bowden writes about, among other things, the market for David Price next offseason when he believe Price will actually be traded. I still think Price is probably moved before next offseason (maybe the Jeremy Hellickson injury changes that?), but, should he remain a Ray for one more year, Bowden says the Cubs are one of the early (mega-early) favorites to land Price, along with the Braves, Nationals, Diamondbacks, and Dodgers. I won’t pass judgment on the inclusion of the other four teams, but the Cubs are certainly interesting. On the one hand, are the Cubs really going to give up a huge prospect haul for one year of Price, when he’s likely to have a salary very close to market rate (it will be his fourth arbitration year)? On the other hand, I could see a scenario where the Cubs’ top offensive prospects have broken through, and the team projects to be minimally competitive in 2015. If the depth in the system has also taken a step forward (such that there are suddenly even more big time prospects, and more redundancies), I suppose I could see the Cubs going for Price to improve the overall quality of that 2015 roster – the first year the Cubs might be able to compete/re-capture the attention of casual fans. I still don’t think this is likely, and it’s also just way too early to seriously discuss.
  • You may or may not recall that, around this time last year, the Cubs were rumored to be the front-runners to get David Price after the 2013 season, too. And, over the course of that season, trading for Price went from “makes total sense” to “makes no sense.” We’ll see how we feel after 2014.
  • Everyone is waiting to see what will happen with recently-DFA’d infielder Emilio Bonifacio, and, as Mike Petriello writes, just about every team’s blogosphere is all, “hey, maybe we should grab Bonifacio!” The 28-year-old is set to make $3.5 million this year (if a team takes on his contract), and is two full years removed from being a particularly useful player. He’s a decent utility guy who runs the bases well, but if you’re wondering whether the Cubs should swap him out at second base for Darwin Barney, it feels a little like robbing Peter to pay Paul.
  • Jonah Keri wrote a fantastic piece for Grantland that starts as a history lesson on the TV rights situation in Baltimore and DC, and morphs into a discussion of the Orioles’ lack of spending to help sustain their current wave of success. While it looks right now like the Orioles have inexplicably done nothing this offseason, several of their most prominent needs – pitching and a power bat – could be filled late in free agency, maybe even with some bargains because of the wait.
  • written by

    Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

    more cubs news

    Cubs Roster Moves: Wisdom and Taillon Are Back, Wesneski and Mastrobuoni Are Out

    Even with tonight's rainout, the Chicago Cubs are still making some roster moves. When Patrick Wisdom was removed (perfectly healthy) from the I-Cubs game in the 4th inning on Wednesday, we had an idea of what was coming next. When...

    Tonight’s Cubs-Marlins Game Has Been Postponed

    The weather wasn't going to cooperate for Jameson Taillon's season debut, and tonight's Cubs-Marlins tilt has been postponed. The game will instead be part of a split-doubleheader this Saturday, with the first game at 1:20pm CT and the second at...

    MLBits: Paul Skenes Could Make His MLB Debut Any Day (But Probably Won’t), Red-Hot Orioles, Houck’s Maddux, More

    If you're into tracking young pitchers with star potential like I am—as I watch Jack Leiter's debut while typing this column—then you're probably itching to see Pirates top prospect Paul Skenes make his way to Pittsburgh sooner than later. While...

    Back to Wrigley: Cubs vs Marlins – Series Preview

    Cubs vs Marlins — Whew! The Cubs got through their first West Coast road trip of the year, and did so with a winning record (5-4) against the Padres, Mariners, and Diamondbacks. They definitely let a couple games slip out...

    Taillon Coming Back, Busch’s Integrity and Success, Bad News for the White Sox, Wicks, Hendricks, and Other Cubs Bullets

    As the father of a toddler who was sick for an entire week — the same week Brett was out from his back surgery and the Cubs were playing almost exclusively late-night ballgames on the West Coast — I was...

    Cubs Farm Report | April 18, 2024: Caissie, Alcántara Go Yard, South Bend and Myrtle Beach Smoked, More

    Kevin Alcántara hit his first home run of the season for the Tennessee Smokies last night, and Owen Caissie hit his first Triple-A home run for the Iowa Cubs as Iowa and Tennessee secured victories. The same can't be said...

    Cody Bellinger Sticking With Scott Boras

    Given the way the offseason played out for super agent Scott Boras's top available clients - Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell, and Jordan Montgomery - you wouldn't be shocked to see some unhappiness behind the scenes. Did Boras overplay...

    You’ll Be Even More Impressed with Hayden Wesneski, When You Hear What it Took to Get Him to Arizona

    Hayden Wesneski was the hero of yesterday's finale and series-win over the Arizona Diamondbacks, coming in to clean up Jordan Wicks' (little) mess in the 5th ... and then tossing 4 shutout innings to save an over-used bullpen and help...

    Offseason Cubs Target Robert Stephenson Now Out for the Year

    Hand up, I really wanted the Cubs to sign reliever Robert Stephenson this offseason. I felt like they could use one more impact arm (accurate), and I felt like Stephenson was one of the best available (about that ... )....

    Rays Closer Pete Fairbanks With a Wonderful and Brutally Honest Line About His Performance

    Rays closer Pete Fairbanks has been an extremely effective reliever the last four years, posting a 2.66 ERA from 2020 through 2023, with a 34.8% K rate and worth 4.1 WAR. But things have started out much more rough for...

    Latest News

    Mariners vs. Rockies: Free Live Stream, TV Channel, How to Watch

    The Seattle Mariners (9-10), who will give the ball to Emerson Hancock, visit the Colorado Rockies (4-15) with Dakota Hudson on the hill, Friday at 8:40 PM ET.Find out how to watch the Seattle-Colorado matchup below.When is Mariners vs. Rockies...

    Pittsburgh Steelers 3-Round Mock Draft: Exploring Potential Picks Along The Offensive Line

    Pittsburgh Steelers 3-Round Mock Draft - The decision is far from easy. On the one hand, a strong offensive line is the bedrock of any successful team, and the long-term benefits are undeniable. On the other hand, a game-changing offensive weapon could breathe...

    Twins vs. Tigers: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

    In a series opener on Friday, Ryan Jeffers and the Minnesota Twins (6-11) play Riley Greene and the Detroit Tigers (10-9), with first pitch scheduled for 8:10 PM ET at Target Field.The article below will provide you with everything you...

    How to Watch Orioles vs. Royals: Live Stream or on TV

    The Baltimore Orioles (12-6), with Dean Kremer on the mound, visit the Kansas City Royals (12-7) who will hand the ball to Alec Marsh, at 7:40 PM ET on Friday in a series opener.See how to watch the Baltimore-Kansas City...

    Brewers vs. Cardinals: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

    On Friday, William Contreras and the Milwaukee Brewers (11-6) begin a series against Brendan Donovan and the St. Louis Cardinals (9-10) at Busch Stadium, with first pitch scheduled for 8:15 PM ET.The article below will provide you with everything you...

    Pacers vs. Bucks Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets for NBA Playoffs Game 1 – Sunday, April 21, 2024

    The Indiana Pacers are slight 1-point favorites heading into Game 1 of the opening round of the NBA Playoffs against the Milwaukee Bucks at Fiserv Forum on Sunday, starting at 7:00 PM ET on TNT. The matchup's over/under is set...

    Mavericks vs. Clippers Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets for NBA Playoffs Game 1 – Sunday, April 21, 2024

    The Dallas Mavericks and the Los Angeles Clippers meet to start the first round of the NBA Playoffs. The Mavericks are favored by 1.5 points in the contest, which will be broadcast on ABC at 3:30 PM ET. The matchup...

    Knicks vs. 76ers Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets for NBA Playoffs Game 1 – Saturday, April 20, 2024

    The New York Knicks and the Philadelphia 76ers take the court to start the opening round of the NBA Playoffs. The Knicks are favored by 3 points in the matchup, which will be broadcast on ESPN at 6:00 PM ET....

    Heat vs. Bulls Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets for NBA Playoffs Game 1 – Friday, April 19, 2024

    The Chicago Bulls are slight 1.5-point underdogs heading into Game 1 of the opening round of the NBA Playoffs against the Miami Heat at FTX Arena on Friday, tipping off at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN. The matchup's over/under is...

    Phillies vs. White Sox: Free Live Stream, TV Channel, How to Watch

    The Philadelphia Phillies (11-8), led by Trea Turner, host Gavin Sheets and the Chicago White Sox (3-15) at 6:40 PM ET on Friday in a series opener.If you're trying to watch this game, keep reading for TV and streaming options...

    more cubs news