NEWSLETTER
The Cubs head home licking their wounds/tail between legs/whatever animal metaphor works for you. They were swept in humbling fashion in a New York doubleheader, and they were frustrated in St. Louis with another series loss. It just isn’t going to get any easier, in terms of the schedule.
The Series Preview gives you the rundown on what you need to know for the upcoming series. In that way, it’s kind of a preview. About a series. See how that works?
We’re Going Streaking
The Cubs lost their fifth straight series to start the year, and have fallen to 4-10. They’ve lost four in a row, and the season somehow feels like it’s slipping away … in mid-freaking April.
The Reds, on the other hand, have won two in a row, and three of five, after a rough start to the year. At 6-9, the Reds are technically just a game and a half better than the Cubs, though.
Game Times and Broadcasts
Expected Starters and Lineups
These lineups are likely to be pretty close to what actually gets fielded, but you’ll want to check each day’s Pre-Gamin’ post for the actual lineup.
Cubs
Starters: Jeff Samardzija (1.29 ERA, 3.10 FIP; 3.00 K/BB), Edwin Jackson (6.19 ERA, 3.74 FIP; 1.27 K/BB), Carlos Villanueva (11.57 ERA, 4.87 FIP; 6.00 K/BB)
Lineup:
- Emilio Bonifacio, CF/2B
- Luis Valbuena, 3B (or Justin Ruggiano)
- Anthony Rizzo, 1B
- Nate Schierholtz, RF
- Starlin Castro, SS
- Junior Lake, LF (or Ryan Sweeney)
- Welington Castillo, C
- Darwin Barney, 2B (or Ryan Kalish)
- Pitcher
Reds
Starters: Alfredo Simon (1.20 ERA, 3.18 FIP; 5.00 K/BB), Tony Cingrani (2.60 ERA, 3.05 FIP; 2.22 K/BB), Homer Bailey (8.16 ERA, 7.17 FIP; 3.40 K/BB)
Lineup:
- Billy Hamilton, CF
- Joey Votto, 1B
- Brandon Phillips, 2B
- Todd Frazier, 3B
- Chris Heisey, LF
- Jay Bruce, RF
- Devin Mesoraco/Brayan Pena, C
- Zack Cosart, SS
- Pitcher
Hot or Not and Whom to Watch
Pop quiz: second highest wOBA on the Cubs right now. Tick, tock, tick, tock. Did you guess Junior Lake? I bet you didn’t, but it’s him, at a lofty .357. (Anthony Rizzo is on top at .402, and he just keeps hitting.)
On Lake, we’ll just ignore the fact that, to sustain that wOBA, he’s currently sporting a .381 BABIP (against a mere .263 BA, which means, you guessed it, his strikeout rate is through the roof – 36.6%).
The Cubs’ outfield picture continues to look grim outside of Lake. None of Nate Schierholtz, Ryan Sweeney, Ryan Kalish, or Justin Ruggiano has an OPS above .573 (that’s Schierholtz). And those struggles come despite being heavily platooned into favorable matchups.
No one wants to hear it, but Emilio Bonifacio is as cold now as he was hot to start the year. He has just one hit and one walk in his last five games (23 plate appearances).
Hey. How about Edwin Jackson’s FIP? (ducks)
I call shenanigans on FanGraphs’ defensive value metric for Starlin Castro so far this year, which has him in the negatives, and has his UZR/150 waaaay in the negatives. Castro has been very good defensively this year, showing good range, good decisions, and his typically good arm. Maybe the defensive metrics are suffering from small sample size issues. Dude has been good. End of story.
The Reds have a mix of regulars doing serious damage, and regulars doing very little.
Chris Heisey has always looked like a guy who could hit if he was given regular starts, and he’s doing so this year: .310/.333/.483.
On the other side of the outfield, Jay Bruce – a key component in the lineup – is hitting just .152/.333/.348. In center field, the story is worse, and it’s the embodiment of the cliche: you can’t steal first. Speedster Billy Hamilton is hitting just .170/.220/.234 on the year, though that’s partly depressed by a .222 BABIP that absolutely has to climb, because it seems like just about any groundball is going to be a hit for him.
It’s been a rough start for Homer Bailey since he got PAID, but the Cubs are frequently good at shaking guys out of such slumps.
Joey Votto is doing Joey Votto things, with a .455 wOBA, and the Reds have finally wised up and realized he’s just about the most perfect number two hitter in all of baseball.
