Lukewarm Stove: Hamels, Lester, Lackey, Masterson, Kemp, Ruggiano, More

old stove featureWell, it is Trade Deadline week, so I should have expected it – the rumor mill really blew up today, and that’s setting aside the Darwin Barney trade, the new Rusney Castillo stuff, and a lot of the Jon Lester stuff

  • In what might be the biggest news of the day, in terms of trade rumors, Jon Morosi reports that after weeks of intransigence, the Phillies are now making lefty Cole Hamels available. Sources say the price is high, and the teams most likely to get him are the Dodgers and Cardinals (Morosi). Each would be highly interesting, for separate reasons: (1) getting Hamels and his $22.5 million salary over the next four years after this one could take the Dodgers off of the market for any of the high-end free agent pitching this offseason, which is quite notable in the Cubs’ world; and (2) Hamels would seem a pricey arm (after age 30, no less) for the Cardinals, and would gobble up some important prospects to acquire, which could be good for the Cubs in the medium and long-term in the NL Central. Suffice it to say, I am extremely interested to see how any Hamels rumors shake out.
  • Should the Cubs be in on Hamels, you ask? Well, setting aside the premium the Phillies can get from a team in play contention this year, the question is whether Hamels’ age 31, 32, 33, and 34 seasons are worth $22.5 million per year (plus a very attainable vesting option worth $24 million at age 35), and if so, whether it’s worth giving up a steep price to get him. If we generously assume Hamels is a 4-win pitcher for each of the next four years, and totally ignore the option, at $6 million per win, Hamels is worth $24 million per year (this is seriously short-hand right now – for a more robust valuation discussion, see here). So, if we’re being optimistic, he’s getting about what he’s worth to the market. How much should a team be willing to give in trade for that? Well, if you’re the Cubs, a lot less than a team like the Cardinals and Dodgers, who can use him now. In other words, as far as the Cubs are concerned this week as buyers, nothing to see here.
  • As for the other non-Price top arm potential available, Ken Rosenthal says the Red Sox are getting “hit hard” on Jon Lester, together with John Lackey (whose contract includes a team option for next season at the ML minimum because of his prior Tommy John surgery and the attendant contract language). Given Lackey’s contract, I’d think he could actually net more in trade than Lester right now, though I’d question whether the Sox would actually deal him. So much value next year.
  • And another arm: Jeff Passan says the Indians are “very willing” to move Justin Masterson, who has battled injuries, ineffectiveness, and a velocity drop this year. I’m trying to figure this one out. It’s hard to see the Indians getting a ton for a rental that the buying team can’t possibly have much confidence in, and the Indians are just 3.5 back in the Wild Card. Are they afraid that, when it comes down to it at the end of the year, they won’t be able to make him a qualifying offer for fear that he’ll accept? Do they feel like they can keep competing this year without him? If so, what does that say about Masterson’s value? The righty remains an interesting guy to watch for the offseason, but he’s fallen squarely into the buy-low-bounce-back type, rather than a guy you could sign and count on as even a 3/4.
  • Aside: given all of these pitchers suddenly popping onto the trade market, aren’t the Cubs once again looking smart for trading both of their top pitching assets earlier this month?
  • Matt Kemp is a very popular “big” trade name right now, but Mike Petriello writes convincingly that, despite everything, the best course of action might just be to hang onto Kemp, outfield glut and all.
  • A fascinating read from FanGraphs on how much it should cost – yes, cost – to trade away Kemp. By Jeff Sullivan’s rough calculation, Kemp’s contract has about $40 to $50 million in negative value, which means, in theory, the Dodgers would be better off if they could trade Kemp with a good prospect to a team in exchange for nothing. It’d be a “you take Kemp’s full contract, get a good prospect” kind of deal.
  • MetsBlog writer Matt Cerrone hears that the Cubs are not inclined to deal a shortstop – Castro/Baez/Russell – right now, preferring to see where things stand in the offseason. That’s what I’ve been expecting all along, but it’s nice to hear it this time from a New York writer.
  • Jon Heyman reports that Alfonso Soriano plans to take the rest of this year off before trying to play again next year.
  • Teams are reportedly not finding it easy to get a deal done with the Mariners.
  • Speaking of the Mariners, Joel Sherman says they and the Braves are aggressively pursuing Padres outfielder Chris Denorfia. I’d be interested to know what free-agent-to-be Denorfia could net in trade, as it could implicate the Cubs’ efforts to shop their complementary outfielders.
  • Speaking of which, Jayson Stark connects the Yankees to Justin Ruggiano as a possible low-cost outfield addition. I’ve got no problem with the Cubs moving a Ruggiano or a Coghlan, but, given the cheap team control – and relative goodness this year – I think you’d want to see them actually get a little bit of value if they’re going to move one of those guys.
  • written by

    Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

    more cubs news

    Cubs vs Rangers: The First Series of the Year!

    Cubs vs Rangers — THE REGULAR SEASON IS HERE! Wake up and rejoice. Later tonight, the Cubs will begin their march toward October Baseball against the (reigning World Series champion) Texas Rangers in Arlington. Justin Steele is getting the nod...

    The 2024 Chicago Cubs for Dummies

    Boom. We made it. The offseason is over, and the Cubs regular season - and those elevated expectations - begins tomorrow. But in case you slept through the winter, I'm here to catch you up on everything you need to...

    I’m Expecting More This Year, Cubs — It’s Time to Start Winning

    There's no way around it: The Chicago Cubs did *not* have the offseason we hoped they might after making Craig Counsell the highest paid manager in MLB history. Not that they did poorly, mind you. Cody Bellinger, Shota Imanaga, and...

    I Dug Deep on the Cubs 2024 Schedule (And I Like What I See)

    Finally, with Cody Bellinger in the fold, we can start focusing more seriously on the season ahead. So today, I thought we'd take a look at the Cubs 2024 schedule. You can flip through the Cubs 2024 schedule right here...

    Here’s What I’m Betting on the Cubs for Opening Day

    I get it. Sports betting isn't for everyone — like, say, the interpreter for an international baseball superstar — but some of us quite enjoy it! If you are one of those people, this article is for you. Below, I'm...

    WAKE UP, BASEBALL IS BACK

    The day has arrived. Opening Day. The most glorious day on the baseball calendar, save for the day of each Chicago Cubs World Series win, of course. See, I get to say things like that on Opening Day. Maybe the...

    Wrigley Field is Gonna Be Lit This Year (As in New Colored Lights!)

    Last year, the Cubs started using their new LED outfield lights to do a little dancing display during 'Go Cubs Go,' lighting along with the song and throwing in a W. It was very fun and I liked it. This...

    Why Craig Counsell Wanted Miles Mastrobuoni on the Cubs’ Bench

    I don't know why Miles Mastrobuoni bugs some folks, but it's probably heavily-weighted toward his small-sample, bad-batted-ball-luck start last year, and that time he didn't dive while playing in right field. It can be hard to shake initial impressions, I...

    Kinda Sounds Like Craig Counsell May Have a Set Top Three in the Batting Order

    New Chicago Cubs manager Craig Counsell has said, generally, his batting order philosophy is the very simplistic (and very correct): just get your best hitters the most at bats. Sure, there's some play in that to set up good match-ups,...

    Los Angeles Dodgers Signing Will Smith to a TEN-YEAR Extension

    The Los Angeles Dodgers have done it again. And by it, I mean they have signed a funkily-structured contract that is going to leave some folks annoyed. The Dodgers are extending catcher Will Smith on a DECADE-long deal with a...

    Latest News

    Los Angeles Chargers Offseason Preview: 2024 Free Agents and Team Needs

    The Los Angeles Chargers enter the offseason with a new era dawning. After a disappointing season, they landed a marquee hire in Jim Harbaugh, fresh off his national championship win with Michigan. Hailed as the top coaching prospect, Harbaugh brings a...

    Cubs vs Rangers: The First Series of the Year!

    Cubs vs Rangers — THE REGULAR SEASON IS HERE! Wake up and rejoice. Later tonight, the Cubs will begin their march toward October Baseball against the (reigning World Series champion) Texas Rangers in Arlington. Justin Steele is getting the nod...

    Rangers vs. Cubs Probable Starting Pitchers – March 28

    The Texas Rangers (0-0) begin their 2024 season with a home game against the Chicago Cubs (0-0) on Thursday, with first pitch at 7:35 PM ET.The Rangers will give the nod to Nathan Eovaldi versus the Cubs and Justin Steele.Rangers...

    Best NBA Prop Bets Today – March 28, 2024

    The Boston Celtics and the Atlanta Hawks take the court for one of two exciting matchups on the NBA slate today.Looking for NBA player prop bets for today's games? This article includes NBA player props for every matchup, so take...

    UNC vs Alabama Predictions and Odds: March Madness Best Bets

    We have a great matchup in the Sweet 16 between (1) North Carolina and (4) Alabama. Let's break down the odds, ATS records, and more for UNC vs Alabama as March Madness continues. Read More: Today's schedule and upset picks...

    Seattle Seahawks Offseason Preview: 2024 Free Agents and Team Needs

    The Seattle Seahawks turn the page on a historic era as they enter the 2024 season without Pete Carroll at the helm for the first time since 2010. Carroll's impact on the franchise is undeniable, crafting a period of sustained...

    Who Is In The Sweet 16? Updated Bracket, Odds to Win, and More

    It has been a great March Madness so far and we have more great matchups in the Sweet 16. Check out what teams are in the Sweet 16, odds, and more as the college basketball season rolls on. Latest March...

    Today’s March Madness Schedule: Updated Bracket, TV Channels for Every Game

    The Sweet 16 is here as March Madness brings us some great matchups tonight! Check out today's March Madness schedule along with game times, TV channels, and more as the college basketball season's biggest games continue. The Sweet 16 Begins...

    2024 MLB Mock Draft: Opening Day Mock Draft Projections

    Happy Opening Day! As the new baseball season begins, and hope is present among most fanbases, why not take a look at a new 2024 MLB Mock Draft? Various mock drafts meticulously analyze potential picks, emphasizing the abundance of talent...

    WAKE UP, BASEBALL IS BACK

    The day has arrived. Opening Day. The most glorious day on the baseball calendar, save for the day of each Chicago Cubs World Series win, of course. See, I get to say things like that on Opening Day. Maybe the...

    more cubs news