NEWSLETTER
Travis Wood was a deserved All-Star in 2013, and, in total, put together a fantastic season.
Sure, even a cursory look at Wood’s peripheral statistics last year told you that the ERA was probably going to regress some this season. Although it stood at 3.11, he gave up a ton of fly balls without giving up a ton of homers (that tends not to sustain consistently over time), he stranded an unusually high number of runners, and his BABIP against was about 30 points lower than his career mark.
Still, Wood did a lot well, if you actually watched him: working the corners with excellent pitch sequencing and command, Wood kept batters off balance, no doubt contributing to a career-best 14.2% infield fly ball rate. His strikeout rate was slightly below league average, but so was his walk rate. In total, although the results he got were close to a front of the rotation guy, his underlying performance was at least that of a middle-to-back of the rotation guy. So, yes, regression was to be expected, but Wood was still a guy – especially when you considered his offensive and defensive contributions (worth nearly 1.0 WAR last year, and more this year) – you wanted in the rotation.
Standing now at a 5.15 ERA, a 4.51 FIP, and a 4.60 xFIP, can you say the same thing this year? Among qualifying starters, those figures rank third from the bottom, 10th from the bottom, and fifth from the bottom, respectively, in all of baseball. Wood’s 2014 season has been ugly.
What do we make of this? Is Wood just having bad luck this year, in reverse of his good luck last year? Is he still a guy you can project as a quality starter in 2015? What happened to him this year?
In short, a whole lot of stuff happened. Some of the things contributing to the down performance:
In sum, what has happened to Wood this year? It looks like an ugly combination of statistically expected regression (previously good luck turning into even or bad luck) and actual performance regression.
On the latter portion, Wood says he feels good, physically, and recognizes that might not actually be a good thing (Cubs.com). If there were a mild physical issue to which to point as an excuse for the velocity and command issues, then maybe we might feel like the sudden performance decline makes more sense. As it stands, maybe there’s a mechanical tweak that could help, together with an offseason to reset the spools.
But the question on tendering Wood a contract for 2015 has suddenly become a much more difficult one than anyone expected just a few months ago. At $3.9 million this year, Wood could make $4.5 to $5 million 2015, his second go-around in arbitration, if the Cubs tender him a contract.
With a roster suddenly burgeoning with promising back-end options, and an offseason plan that will almost certainly be devoted to picking up front-end pitching, it isn’t hard to imagine scenarios where Wood’s spot is squeezed out. Does that make a non-tender the right decision, though? Even with many pitching options, isn’t Wood still worth having around at $4.5 to $5 million? We recently discussed how it made sense to keep Tsuyoshi Wada at that rate, and Wood certainly has a longer track record of big league success (albeit now with a season of big league failure). And it’s not like the Cubs don’t understand the importance of depth.
The tender decision for Wood comes in early December, and the Cubs may decide that, at worst, Wood is worth the dice roll as an asset and as depth, depending on what they’ve done in the offseason to that point. Even with his rough pitching, Wood has still been worth nearly 1 win this year thanks to his offense and defense. I’m not so sure I’m ready to say the Cubs should cast him aside for nothing at all, especially when the downside risk is eating just a few million bucks (or less, if they were to part ways in Spring Training or find a well-suited trade partner).
But, even if he’s tendered a contract for 2015, his status as a sure-thing starter for the Cubs that season is now in doubt.
Wood has a few things going for him, however, as he tries to work through these issues: he’s just 27, hasn’t had any serious arm problems, and is a hell of an athlete. That tends to be the mold of a guy who has the ability to turn things back around. Expecting Wood to be a true-talent 3.00 ERA guy going forward is not realistic, but believing that the potential for a mid-to-back rotation guy is still in there is completely realistic.
He may just have to work hard, prove it, and win a spot. That’s the way it should be on the kind of “good” team we hope the Cubs will soon become.
