The Tricky Business of Prospect Rankings and Other Bullets

cubs prospect lo vista bryant baez solerIf you weren’t checked in late-ish last night, the Cubs made their tender deadline decisions after 9pm CT, tendering contracts to everyone except John Baker and Wesley Wright. I’ll have some more thoughts on those decisions soon. Until then, Bullets …

  • John Sickels has started his process of examining Cubs prospects for possible inclusion on his top prospect list. To do that, he crowd-sources information on which guys he should be considering, and you can head over and check out that process as it plays out. Even at 45 names, there are still guys that you’d reasonably want to see considered – Trevor Clifton and Charcer Burks were notable omissions at the start – but you can understand, with so much depth, how it’s easy to forget a guy on a first pass and go, “Oh yeah, that guy.” There are probably another 10 or 15 that I could name that I’d like to hear more about, but you have to draw the line somewhere.
  • The method Sickels uses, at least in terms of the preliminary openness, stands in contrast to the process for many other prospect rankers. To that end, Kiley McDaniel writes a long, interesting piece over at FanGraphs about the business of evaluating and ranking prospects, and about the many hurdles that guys like McDaniel face when trying to get it right. Teams and individuals working for those teams obviously have an incentive to puff up their prospects. Third party rankings lists are not the be-all end-all of prospect status but they are treated as at least one data point in the industry, and, as McDaniel points out, they are often reviewed by non-scouting folks in an organization (owners, for example) to determine whether the organization has the right scouting and player development staff in place. That’s kind of crazy when you think about it, but in the era of endless information, people are going to use as much data as is available to them. For our purposes, I think the key remains to not put too much stock in any one singular list or any one singular ranking (just as you would with any one singular scouting report or any one singular stat). Review them. Enjoy them. But try your best to distill from them the baseline information that you can use when reviewing the next list and compiling in your head an aggregate understanding of how a prospect is perceived in the industry generally.
  • Dave Cameron writes about the way the public digests big trades, and tries to figure out where there are biases in how we perceive the “winner” and “loser” of the trade. One funny aside: although very few deals in recent years appear to have been “won” by the seller of the big name player(s), two of the six such deals were by the Cubs (Samardzija/Hammel, and Garza).
  • A very cool honor here: Baseball America named Iowa Cubs President/GM Sam Bernabe the MiLB Executive of the Year.
  • There’s a rumor floating around about at least part of the reason Josh Donaldson was traded by the A’s, and it involves a mid-season clash between the third baseman and GM Billy Beane.
  • A great read on Jake Arrieta’s offseason and his family.
  • Bud Selig released a positive statement on umpire Dale Scott, who revealed publicly this week that he is gay.
  • MLB.com is looking for stat stringers for next season, and that includes covering Cubs games.
  • written by

    Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

    more cubs news

    Do the Cubs Have a Scoring-Late Problem?

    Once a month since August of 2016, my friends and I get together for "Supper Club." It's like book club, but instead of reading books, we go to a different restaurant in the city. Last night, we hit our 77th...

    Enhanced Box Score: Cubs 4, Astros 3 – April 24, 2024

    The Cubs did all their scoring in the first, and made it stand up for the win with generally good pitching and generally good defense. Jameson Taillon looked solid again in his second start, locating well, giving up no barrels,...

    Dansby Swanson with a First Inning Three-Run Homer

    For the second straight night, the Cubs are jumping all over the Astros in the first inning. After a couple hits from Nico Hoerner and Ian Happ to get things going, Michael Busch hit a sac fly, Christopher Morel walked,...

    Welcome Back to Iowa, Brennen Davis: Rocket Homer in His First Game Post-Rehab

    What a road it's been - continues to be - for Cubs outfield prospect Brennen Davis. The former top prospect was on a rocket ship to Triple-A in 2021, and then mostly lost the last two years to various injuries....

    CRAAAAAP: Cody Bellinger to the Injured List (UPDATES)

    So much for all those words of optimism and negative X-rays. After colliding with the outfield wall last night, Cody Bellinger fractured his rib (Update: It's actually TWO fractured right ribs) and will hit the injured list today. Chicago Cubs...

    Chicago Cubs Lineup: What is it, June 2023?

    CUBS LINEUP — The Chicago Cubs took Game 1 against the Houston Astros in convincing fashion last night. So tonight, they'll go for the quick series win against Spencer Arrighetti at Wrigley Field (it'd be a good idea to win...

    Bellinger Optimistic Post-Injury, Busch’s Defense, Almonte Stock Rising, Tauchman Slugging, and Other Cubs Bullets

    Ed. Note: Since this article was published, a CT scan revealed a rib fracture for Cody Bellinger, who is now on the Injured List. You can find all the details of that news in our most recent article right here....

    Cubs Outfield Prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong Coming Up

    With Cody Bellinger headed to the Injured List with a rib fracture, the Cubs are in need of another outfielder: center field prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong is coming back up to the big leagues for the second time. https://twitter.com/670TheScore/status/1783217891195625709 Crow-Armstrong, 22,...

    Is Mike Tauchman the Best Player in Baseball? An Exploration

    Hey, we're just having some early-season fun. So allow me to present the 'Mike Tauchman Is Clearly Better Than' list. As of this moment, Mike Tauchman has ... ... a higher wRC+ (151) than Pete Alonso, Fernando Tatis Jr., and...

    Cubs Farm Report | April 24, 2024: Kevin Alcántara Cannot Miss Right Now

    Name a player hotter than Kevin Alcántara right now. Go ahead, I'll wait. (He's already raking again today. Literally as I type this.) More on Alcántara's big day and the Smokies home run parade last night in today's Cubs Farm...

    Latest News

    Yankees vs. Athletics Probable Starting Pitchers – April 25

    The Oakland Athletics (9-16) and the New York Yankees (17-8) square off at Yankee Stadium on Thursday at 7:05 PM ET.The probable starters are Nestor Cortes Jr. (1-1) for the Yankees and Alex Wood (0-2) for the Athletics.Yankees vs. Athletics...

    Latest 2024 NFL Draft Specials, Top Props, and More For the First Round Tonight

    As the 2024 NFL Draft unfolds tonight, the sports betting landscape is buzzing with anticipation. Fans and bettors alike are gearing up for one of the most exciting events in the football calendar, with a plethora of draft specials, prop...

    What is a Spread Bet? Understanding the Popular Bet Type

    One of the most popular bets in all of sports betting is the spread. What is it? A spread bet is a wager on the margin of victory in a game. Let's dive into the popular bet type and break...

    2024 Kansas City Chiefs Big Board: Potential First-Round Fits Including Receiver and Tackle

    What does one back-to-back Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs team do the next year in the NFL Draft? It’s highly speculated that they will fill their pass-catching holes with an elite wide receiver, or possibly bolster the offensive line...

    Best NBA Prop Bets Today – April 25, 2024

    In a Thursday NBA playoff schedule that includes three competitive matchups, the Denver Nuggets versus the Los Angeles Lakers is a game to see.Searching for NBA player prop bets for today's games? This article features NBA player props for every...

    Do the Cubs Have a Scoring-Late Problem?

    Once a month since August of 2016, my friends and I get together for "Supper Club." It's like book club, but instead of reading books, we go to a different restaurant in the city. Last night, we hit our 77th...

    Happy NFL Draft Day! (And Other Bears Bullets)

    Today is the day we've been waiting for since the NFL regular season ended. It's NFL Draft Day! The Chicago Bears have the first pick. Unless something unexpected happens, it'll be USC quarterback Caleb Williams getting the nod. Now that...

    Dodgers vs. Nationals Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, April 25, 2024

    After a four-hit game last time out, Will Smith leads the Los Angeles Dodgers (15-11) as -197 favorites against the Washington Nationals (10-13). Action gets underway from Nationals Park at 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, live on MLB Network.Los Angeles'...

    Enhanced Box Score: Cubs 4, Astros 3 – April 24, 2024

    The Cubs did all their scoring in the first, and made it stand up for the win with generally good pitching and generally good defense. Jameson Taillon looked solid again in his second start, locating well, giving up no barrels,...

    Mariners vs. Rangers Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, April 25, 2024

    Two of the league's top power hitters meet Thursday when the Seattle Mariners (12-12) and Texas Rangers (13-12) take the field at 2:35 PM ET, live on BSSW. Caleb Raleigh has six home runs for the Mariners (-122 favorites on...

    more cubs news