Is the Cubs’ Projected Rotation Middle of the Pack? And Other Bullets

jake arrietaThe Little Girl got sick at school yesterday, so she joined me at home in the morning. She’s home again today, so I’ll do my best to wear the two hats of nurse and purveyor of swell posts.

Oh, and promoter of goods: today is the LAST day of the 15% off sale at the BN store. So, if you want to get a cheap but awesome shirt, head over to the store and use the coupon code HEART15.

  • The Cubs do not have a top 10 (or even maybe top 15, based on the honorable mentions) rotation in baseball, according to Buster Olney and ESPN. I think there are several teams (Dodgers, Cardinals, Nationals, Mets, Tigers) that pretty clearly have a better rotation, but I’d put the Cubs right in there with several others who show up on the list, including the Mariners (who are way too high at 4th), White Sox, Padres, and Indians. None of that is to say it’s not fair to have the Cubs outside the top ten (though they’ve outperformed pitching projections for years now, *and* they’ve now got top framing catchers in tow), because, after Jon Lester, there are easy questions – can Jake Arrieta repeat? Is Cubs-Jason-Hammel the real Jason Hammel? Is Kyle Hendricks for real? Can the Cubs get a good fifth starter out of the remain crew? For my money, the Cubs have a really strong front of the rotation, and extremely good depth. But the questions are legitimate. My gut says the Cubs’ rotation is probably in the 10 to 15 range right now. But, like the offense, there’s a pretty wide berth of possibilities, because although there are questions, there’s a ton of upside.
  • Corey Black has been invited to big league camp (i.e., non-roster invite), according to Corey Black. That means the big league invites are going out this week, and we may get a bulk announcement soon. Recall, non-roster invitees – could be prospects, could be vets in on minor league deals – participate in big league camp even though they aren’t on the 40-man roster, and fight for a spot on the big league team out of Spring Training (or, in the case of youngsters, learn from the experience).
  • As for Black, specifically, it’s a stretch that he could make the big league team just yet, but the invite seems very appropriate, given that he’s likely to see action at AAA this year, and could be useful arm very soon. It’ll be interesting to see if Black continues starting in Spring Training, given that his clearest path to the big leagues is likely in the bullpen, where he could be an excellent power arm. That said, I’m thinking he’ll stay a starter for now – the conversion is not difficult, and you might as well keep a guy starting so long as there’s a chance he could be a starter down the road. Black, 23, is coming off his first full year at AA, in which he posted a nice 3.47 ERA over 124.1 innings, but his strikeout rate dipped to 22% (from about 24% at High-A), and his walk rate climbed higher from an already-uncomfortable 11% at High-A to an unusable 13.2% at AA. Black has the stuff to be a big league pitcher, but, as we’ve seen with so many quality young arms, it’s the command that will separate.
  • Helping propel his team to a 6-2 postseason record, Javy Baez had another good game yesterday in the Puerto Rican Winter League, going 2-6 with a couple singles, stealing a base, scoring a run, driving in a run (the game-winner), and striking out just once. He’s had a real nice stretch the last couple/few weeks. (And if you want to see a chart on Baez’s strikeout rate adjustments as he’s gotten more experience in a given league, Doc put together a handy, pretty one here in the comments.)
  • New Cubs minor leaguer Andres Santiago pitched a perfect frame for the other side in that one, striking out one.
  • Pat Hughes is the Illinois Sportscaster of the Year for the sixth time because obviously (Cubs.com).
  • Good read from Patrick Mooney on Jon Lester and Anthony Rizzo.
  • No, Pedro Martinez did not have the four best pitches in baseball during his day, but it turns out that he did have three pitches that were all among the best.
  • written by

    Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

    more cubs news

    Chicago Cubs Sign Old Friend Dan Straily

    I knew Dan Straily was pitching in Korea, and I knew there was a time in relatively recent memory that he was trying to come back to MLB. But sometime between then and now, he fell off my radar as...

    Pre-Gamin’: Astros at Cubs (1:20 CT) – Lineups, Pitching Matchup, Broadcast Info, Game Thread

    CUBS LINEUP — The Cubs won again last night, which means they've already won the season-series against the still-struggling Astros. Justin Verlander will be on the bump for today's finale, but he'll have to go up against the mighty Javier...

    Cubs Farm Report | April 25, 2024: Brennen Davis Homers in His Return to Triple-A

    Brennen Davis made his return to Triple-A last night, and of course, he managed to smack a three-run home run in an 8-2 win for the Iowa Cubs. That and more in today's Cubs Farm Report. Cubs Farm Report |...

    The Leadoff Role, Cubs Front Office is Not Particularly Well-Liked? And Other Cubs Bullets

    It's a pretty big day for the Chicago Bears, eh? For the second year in a row, they own the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. Only this time, they actually plan to use it (and on a quarterback,...

    Chicago Cubs Sign Brazilian-Japanese Pitcher Daniel Missaki Out of Mexican League

    That's a geographic mouthful right there, and it underscores what an interesting signing this is. Stray signings throughout the year are not uncommon, particularly as injuries accumulate down on the farm and the Chicago Cubs have the ability to take...

    Do the Cubs Have a Scoring-Late Problem?

    Once a month since August of 2016, my friends and I get together for "Supper Club." It's like book club, but instead of reading books, we go to a different restaurant in the city. Last night, we hit our 77th...

    Enhanced Box Score: Cubs 4, Astros 3 – April 24, 2024

    The Cubs did all their scoring in the first, and made it stand up for the win with generally good pitching and generally good defense. Jameson Taillon looked solid again in his second start, locating well, giving up no barrels,...

    Dansby Swanson with a First Inning Three-Run Homer

    For the second straight night, the Cubs are jumping all over the Astros in the first inning. After a couple hits from Nico Hoerner and Ian Happ to get things going, Michael Busch hit a sac fly, Christopher Morel walked,...

    Welcome Back to Iowa, Brennen Davis: Rocket Homer in His First Game Post-Rehab

    What a road it's been - continues to be - for Cubs outfield prospect Brennen Davis. The former top prospect was on a rocket ship to Triple-A in 2021, and then mostly lost the last two years to various injuries....

    CRAAAAAP: Cody Bellinger to the Injured List (UPDATES)

    So much for all those words of optimism and negative X-rays. After colliding with the outfield wall last night, Cody Bellinger fractured his rib (Update: It's actually TWO fractured right ribs) and will hit the injured list today. Chicago Cubs...

    Latest News

    LeBron James Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Nuggets – NBA Playoffs Game 3, Thursday, April 25, 2024

    The Los Angeles Lakers meet the Denver Nuggets at 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, in Game 3 of the opening round of the NBA playoffs, and one of the 3-pointer over/unders available for this clash requires two trifectas from LeBron...

    D’Angelo Russell Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Nuggets – NBA Playoffs Game 3, Thursday, April 25, 2024

    D'Angelo Russell must make four 3-pointers to beat his prop when the Los Angeles Lakers play the Denver Nuggets on Thursday at 10:00 PM ET, in Game 3 of the opening round of the NBA playoffs.D'Angelo Russell's Three-Pointer Prop Odds...

    Michael Porter Jr. Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Lakers – NBA Playoffs Game 3, Thursday, April 25, 2024

    To beat his 3-point over/under, Michael Porter Jr. must make three from downtown on Thursday, when his Denver Nuggets face the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 3 of the opening round of the NBA playoffs, tipping off at 10:00 PM...

    Jamal Murray Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Lakers – NBA Playoffs Game 3, Thursday, April 25, 2024

    On Thursday at 10:00 PM ET, the Denver Nuggets face the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 3 of the opening round of the NBA playoffs, and Jamal Murray's 3-pointer prop for this clash requires three treys.Jamal Murray's Three-Pointer Prop Odds...

    Nikola Jokic Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Lakers – NBA Playoffs Game 3, Thursday, April 25, 2024

    Nikola Jokic's Denver Nuggets meet the Los Angeles Lakers on Thursday at 10:00 PM ET in Game 3 of the opening round of the NBA playoffs, and to beat his 3-point over/under, he needs to make two from downtown.Nikola Jokic's...

    Anthony Davis Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Nuggets – NBA Playoffs Game 3, Thursday, April 25, 2024

    The Los Angeles Lakers play the Denver Nuggets at 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, in Game 3 of the opening round of the NBA playoffs, and one of the 3-pointer props available for this clash requires just one trey from...

    Chicago Cubs Sign Old Friend Dan Straily

    I knew Dan Straily was pitching in Korea, and I knew there was a time in relatively recent memory that he was trying to come back to MLB. But sometime between then and now, he fell off my radar as...

    Oh? The Rams Reportedly Want to Trade into the Top 10 of the 2024 NFL Draft

    If you're looking for chaos on NFL Draft day, you just might get it. And leave it to the script-writers to get a team out in Hollywood involved. Here is a scoop from The Athletic's Dianna Russini, who hears the...

    Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals Series April 26-28: Odds, Starting Pitchers & Predictions

    A three-game series featuring the Detroit Tigers and the visiting Kansas City Royals will start on Friday, April 26 at 1:10 PM ET.Tigers vs. Royals Series Info Royals @ Tigers Time: Friday, April 26 at 1:10 PM ET Tigers Starting...

    We Could See 6 Quarterbacks Go in Round 1 of the NFL Draft

    NFL Draft followers seem to have settled on four quarterbacks going somewhere in the top 10 picks. Many appear to think that we could get a draft with quarterbacks going 1, 2, 3, 4 in succession at the top. Others...

    more cubs news