Another Data Point for Quantifying Manager Value and Other Bullets

maddon and epsteinAs I type these Bullets awaiting my aircraft this morning (I’m headed to Spring Training), it is my understanding that there will be WI-FI on the plane. Assuming that’s the case – and assuming my seatmates afford me the space necessary to type without excessive frustration – you should see fairly normal posting throughout the morning and early afternoon. Once I land in the early afternoon, I’ll be heading to the hotel (not the new hotel right at the park, but very close to the park), and then heading out to the ballpark. At that point, you might see a lull here at the site while I’m out and about, but do follow along on Twitter and Facebook, since that’s where my quick shots will go. No worries: for those of you not into social media, I’ll have updates here at the site from my time in Mesa.

  • Having previously looked at the gory math behind which managers are best, statistically, at staving off the inevitable production decline that positional players face as the long baseball season goes on, Russell Carleton performs a similar exercise with pitchers (but in reverse: how good are the managers at getting the most out of the pitchers as the season goes along?). And, as it was on the positional side, new Cubs manager Joe Maddon features prominently near the top of the list. You’ll have to read the piece to understand the methodology, but, for what it’s worth, Maddon shows up as very good at getting the best out of starting pitchers, and as the very top manager at getting the best out of relievers.
  • An interesting aside you can take away from Carleton’s piece: the data suggests a very good manager is worth about 15 runs per season solely in terms of his ability to prevent positional player decline as the season goes on, plus his ability to get the most out of pitchers as those position players decline. A very bad manager, by contrast, is down near -15 runs per season. It takes about 10 runs to equal win*, so we’re talking about a potential swing of as much as 3 wins based solely on this specific ability. We’re not talking about a manager’s ability to maximize player performance, generally, nor his in-game managerial decision-making ability. In other words, believing that a manager’s total value could approach 5 or 6 wins is not out of the question.
  • *(I actually think that number is getting closer to 9 in the depressed run environment, but we’ll just stay at 10 for now, since that’s what most of the literature says.)
  • Jake Arrieta had some control trouble yesterday, which you might expect as normal this time of year. But Arrieta’s response wasn’t to brush it off – he flagellated by making himself run as punishment (Tribune). He says he and Jon Lester make up one of the best duos in the league (Sun-Times), so he’s clearly going to do his part to back that up.
  • If you’ve noticed the Cubs being extra aggressive on the basepaths so far, that’s by design, according to Joe Maddon (ESPN). He wants the guys to be aggressive right now on the bases so the aggression in the rest of their game doesn’t slip. I imagine that will sharpen up a bit as we get closer to the season, but, for now, seems fine to me.
  • More on Arrieta here at CSN – he’s been studying Lester’s routine, looking for things he can take away.
  • A USA Today piece on, hey, the Cubs might be good.
  • As you may recall, Tsuyoshi Wada was slowed early in camp by some hamstring tightness, and his debut yesterday was just one inning. Carrie Muskat says he was feeling some discomfort, though it is not serious.
  • If you missed anything from a busy weekend, here’s your catch-up.
  • written by

    Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

    more cubs news

    Oh, Come On: Cody Bellinger Lifted Mid-Game with an Apparent Injury (UPDATE: X-Rays Negative)

    The Cubs cannot catch a break this year, man. They've already dealt with injuries to Jameson Taillon, Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly, Julian Merryweather, Seiya Suzuki, and Ian Happ (did I forget anyone?). And tonight, it seems maybe something...

    Enhanced Box Score: Cubs 7, Astros 2 – April 23, 2024

    Well there was one big thing not to like about tonight's game - Cody Bellinger was lifted with a right rib contusion after colliding with the outfield wall - and about a million things that were great. And since we...

    Mike Tauchman Did it AGAIN – Second Oppo Homer of the Game!

    Nothing like a little insurance late. Mike Tauchman, who already hit his first home run of the season earlier in this game, just hit his second home run in the 8th! Another opposite field blast for Tauchman, who's been hitting...

    James Triantos Homers TWICE for the Smokies

    It really is a Cubs homer party up and down the system. In Chicago, Cody Bellinger and Mike Tauchman have gone deep. At Myrtle Beach, Christian Hernandez and Jefferson Encarnacion each homered. At South Bend, Yohendrick Pinango homered. And at...

    Kevin Alcantara Led Off Tonight’s Game with a Bomb (UPDATE: And Then Did It Again!)

    Kevin Alcantara wasted no time giving the Tennessee Smokies the lead on Tuesday night (or maybe he just wanted to be a spiritual part of the homer party going on at Wrigley Field). Facing off against the Rocket City Trash...

    Mike Tauchman’s First Homer of the Year Caps Off a 5-Run Cubs Ambush!

    I don't like to use "ambush" lightly. But what would you call it when the Cubs put five balls in play over 100 MPH, including a single, a double, and two home runs en route to putting five runs on...

    Ian Happ Hit Missed a Homer by a Foot, So Cody Bellinger Launched One into Space to Pick Him UP

    Ian Happ was back in the Cubs lineup tonight after missing a few games with a sore hamstring. And in his first at-bat back, he sent one 412 feet to dead-center field for a VERY long double (Statcast says it...

    Pre-Gamin’: Astros at Cubs (6:40 CT) – Lineups, Broadcast Info, Game Thread

    CUBS LINEUP — The Chicago Cubs are back in action tonight for the first of three games against the Houston Astros at Wrigley Field. Here's a look at the Cubs lineup for Game 1. Chicago Cubs Lineup: Nico Hoerner, 2B...

    Jefferson Rojas Has the Longest Active Hitting Streak in High-A

    I know what you're thinking – what the heck is this basketball junkie doing over here on our turf!? He normally only shows up when he accidentally puts his Bulls articles in the wrong category! I need a little palate cleanser...

    MLBits: Jared Jones Made Brice Turang Look Ridiculous, Dylan Cease Dazzles at Coors, More

    If you're familiar with me/my writing, you know how much I love good pitching. To that end, Jared Jones has been one of my favorite stories of the young season. And on Monday, he gave us one of the best...

    Latest News

    Best MLB Prop Bets Today, April 24, 2024

    Today's MLB slate has lots in store. Among those 15 contests is the Boston Red Sox taking on the Cleveland Guardians.One of the most fun ways to wager on baseball is via MLB player prop bets. There are props for...

    Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Wednesday, April 24, 2024

    The Arizona Diamondbacks (12-13) are -122 favorites to take Game 3 of th series from the St. Louis Cardinals (10-14) Wednesday at 1:15 PM ET. The teams enter the matchup with the series record tied, and the underdog Cardinals are...

    Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals Probable Starting Pitchers – April 24

    The Arizona Diamondbacks (12-13) play on the road against the St. Louis Cardinals (10-14) on Wednesday. The contest is set to start at 1:15 PM ET.The Diamondbacks will look to Jordan Montgomery (1-0) versus the Cardinals and Kyle Gibson (1-2).Diamondbacks...

    Pacers vs. Bucks Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets for NBA Playoffs Game 3 – Friday, April 26, 2024

    The Indiana Pacers are 4-point favorites in Game 3 of the opening round of the NBA Playoffs against the Milwaukee Bucks at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Friday, beginning at 5:30 PM ET on ESPN. The series is tied 1-1. The over/under...

    Suns vs. Timberwolves Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets for NBA Playoffs Game 3 – Friday, April 26, 2024

    The Minnesota Timberwolves are slight 3.5-point underdogs for Game 3 of the opening round of the NBA Playoffs against the Phoenix Suns at Footprint Center on Friday, starting at 10:30 PM ET on ESPN. The Timberwolves hold a 2-0 lead...

    Mavericks vs. Clippers Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets for NBA Playoffs Game 3 – Friday, April 26, 2024

    The Dallas Mavericks are slight 3.5-point favorites in Game 3 of the opening round of the NBA Playoffs against the Los Angeles Clippers at American Airlines Center on Friday, tipping off at 8:00 PM ET on ESPN. The series is...

    Thunder vs. Pelicans Predictions, Best Bets and Odds: NBA Playoffs Game 2 – Wednesday, April 24, 2024

    The Oklahoma City Thunder take a 1-0 series record into Game 2 of the opening round of the NBA Playoffs. The Thunder are favored by 7.5 points in the contest, which airs on TNT at 9:30 PM ET. The over/under...

    Predators vs. Canucks NHL Playoffs First Round Game 3 Prediction: Picks, Live Odds and Moneyline – Friday, April 26, 2024

    The Nashville Predators are solid favorites (-130) at home over the Vancouver Canucks (+110) on Friday at 7:30 PM ET.Predators vs. Canucks Favorite, Moneyline, TotalFavorite: Predators (-130)Underdog: Canucks (+110)Total: 5.5Best Predators vs. Canucks Promo Codes[lasso type="table" id="1"]How to Watch Predators...

    Avalanche vs. Jets NHL Playoffs First Round Game 3 Prediction: Live Odds, Stats, History and Picks – Friday, April 26, 2024

    The Colorado Avalanche are solid favorites (-166) at home against the Winnipeg Jets (+140) on Friday at 10:00 PM ET.Avalanche vs. Jets Favorite, Moneyline, TotalFavorite: Avalanche (-166)Underdog: Jets (+140)Total: 6.5Best Avalanche vs. Jets Promo Codes[lasso type="table" id="1" link_id="1595716"]How to Watch...

    How to Watch Braves vs. Marlins: Live Stream or on TV

    Marcell Ozuna and the Atlanta Braves (16-6) host Luis Arraez and the Miami Marlins (6-19) on Wednesday, with first pitch at 7:20 PM ET.The article below will give you everything you need to watch Atlanta take on Miami.When is Braves...

    more cubs news