Entering June, Chicago Cubs' Playoff Odds Still Better than 50/50 Despite Tough Schedule

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Entering June, Chicago Cubs’ Playoff Odds Still Better than 50/50 Despite Tough Schedule

Chicago Cubs

cubs win standings flags scoreboardThe Chicago Cubs enter June with a 26-22 record, considerably better than the Cubs’ record on June 1 in 2014 (20-33). The Cubs are on pace for 88 wins, which would be a pretty great season, all things considered. In 2014, each of the NL Wild Card teams won 88 games.

Some other things about the Cubs as they enter June …

  • The Cubs’ strength of schedule thus far is .508, according to ESPN, which gives them the 7th toughest schedule in baseball to date. Third toughest in the NL, behind only the Padres and Brewers. With the Nationals, Tigers, Indians, Twins, Dodgers, Cardinals, and Mets on tap before we get much into July, it doesn’t get any easier for the Cubs. At least not for a while.
  • Despite that, PECOTA projects the Cubs to have the third best record in the NL the rest of the way, and best in the NL Central (61-53).
  • Thanks to an insane number of one-run games – 24 of ’em, with 14 wins – the Cubs now actually have a negative run differential, which means their pythagorean record is something closer to 24-24, rather than 26-22. However, the underlying performance of the individuals on the Cubs suggests that they should have scored more runs than they’ve actually scored (probably that RISP crap), and their record should be right where it is, according to BP’s calculations. See? Sometimes things are fair.
  • BP gives the Cubs a 57.1% chance to make the playoffs at this point (20.8% chance to win the Central).
  • FanGraphs is just a hair less optimistic on the Cubs the rest of the way, projecting 60-54 over the final four months. They’ve got the Cubs’ playoff odds at 51.3%.

Author: Brett Taylor

Brett Taylor is the Editor and Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and @Brett_A_Taylor.