NEWSLETTER
There is an old adage about lightning not striking the same place twice.
But in 2011, 2012 and 2013, the Cubs struck a free agency trifecta when they signed Paul Maholm, Scott Feldman and Jason Hammel in consecutive offseasons at a total cost of approximately $16 million.
The deals brought in short-term, cost-effective rotation arms that provided — at minimum — league average production with a chance for upside. As it turned out, Feldman, Maholm and Hammel each showed enough to become valuable trade chips before the non-waiver deadline.
Maholm’s 21 appearances were valued at $7.6 million (1.2 fWAR) and Feldman’s 15 starts were worth $7.4 million (1.0 fWAR) by Fangraphs. Hammel’s 17 starts in 2014 were worth $15.4 million.
Not only did the Cubs receive a good return on investment for each of these pitchers with regard to long-term assets, but each pitcher performed at a rate that exceeded expectations and their salary.
With the Cubs in the market for another starting pitcher after reportedly signing John Lackey, and apparently not able to spend ambitiously like the Red Sox did for David Price or Diamondbacks did for Zack Greinke, it is fair to wonder whether or not the Cubs should go down this road again.
But rather than bring in a sign-and-flip candidate, the Cubs could instead develop a low-cost, high-upside free agent arm over the course of an entire season.
To be clear, this kind of pitcher would be a second or third starter acquired this offseason. The kind of pitcher who provides depth and upside who could slot into the rotation if he looks good in the spring. The kind of arm that forces the organization to make difficult decisions.
The 2015 Cubs entered spring with Kyle Hendricks, Travis Wood, Tsuyoshi Wada, Edwin Jackson, Jacob Turner, Felix Doubront and others fighting over two rotation spots. Each pitcher’s performance and/or health did the decision making, and frankly, the front office might be wise to do that again in 2016.
President Theo Epstein suggested the Cubs might need to be creative when adding arms this offseason. And with the Cubs new revenue streams still in their infancy stages, there might not be a more creative way than a low-cost/low-risk, high-reward project for pitching coach Chris Bosio. Considering that the Cubs might want to be in a position to spend aggressively in the outfield, this could be a pitching alternative (or supplement) to making a trade for a younger, cost-controlled starter.
The Cubs turned themselves into an attractive landing spot for free agent arms looking for a new lease on life during their rebuilding years. And even though they are turning into contenders, there is still value to be had in these types of pitchers.
Some candidates:
