Arbitration is Coming: Examining the Chicago Cubs’ Eligible Players for 2016

jake arrieta cubs roadIn one week, arbitration-eligible players may file for arbitration, and, within three days thereafter, they and the teams for which they play will exchange proposed salaries for the 2016 season. If you are unfamiliar with the arbitration process and eligibility details, you can learn more in this piece at FanGraphs.

In a broad stroke, a player’s salary for the first three years of their MLB career is decided solely by the team for which they play. After three full years* of MLB service time (172 days constitutes a “year”) a player is eligible to take their salary demands to an arbitrator who can decide on the player’s salary for the upcoming season: either the salary proposed by the player, or the salary proposed by the team. Because the arbitrator is allowed only to select one of the proposed salaries, you’ll find compromises and deals are struck more often than not. Indeed, if memory serves, a Theo Epstein-led front office has never gone to arbitration with a player, and has instead always settled before it came to that.

For the 2016 season, the Chicago Cubs have a healthy number of players eligible for salary arbitration (7), so consider this your quick-reference sheet for each individual case and what to expect. Down below, I’ve listed each player, a brief spot on their performance and salary in 2015, how much service time they’ve accrued and, of course, their projected salary in 2016 – thanks to MLB Trade Rumors Projected Arbitration Salaries for 2016. Here we go.

Jake Arrieta

Jake Arrieta was as good as it gets in 2015. Literally. He won the NL Cy Young Award and had an historically good second half of the season. Although he’s been with the Cubs for a little over two years, Arrieta has accrued a total of 4 years and 145 days of MLB service time overall. What that means is, absent an extension, he will be eligible for arbitration both this and next year, before reaching free agency in 2018.

[adinserter block=”1″]In 2015, Arrieta avoided arbitration with the Cubs by signing a one year deal worth $3.63 million, but expect that to get bumped up more than usual in 2016. In fact, because the arbitrators tend to look at more traditional stats when making their decision – wins (22), innings pitched (229 before the playoffs), ERA (1.77), etc… – we can expect Arrieta to get an exceptionally healthy raise. MLBTR, for example, is projecting a salary worth $10.4 million after arbitration and that sounds about right, if not light. Although that is a still a steal for Arrieta’s level of dominance, it would represent a nearly 300% raise from his 2015 salary. If it happens, it will have been well-earned.

Chris Coghlan

Coghlan’s 2015 season was not unlike his 2014 season, and you might think that may bode well for him in arbitration, but that might not be the case. Unfortunately, the overall improvement in his game came from areas that may be more easily overlooked by an arbitrator (WAR, defense, walk rate – more peripheral/advanced statistics). Though, to be fair, he did hit more home runs and stole more bases. The former NL Rookie of the Year (2009) is entering his final year of arbitration, given that he has 5 years and 148 days of MLB service time.

In 2015, Coghlan avoided arbitration with the Cubs by signing a one-year deal worth $2.505 million. While we should certainly expect a raise (there is almost always a raise), I doubt it will be too dramatic. Coghlan was good in 2015 – he accrued nearly 1 more WAR than he did in 2014 – and showed that he is a bit more consistent; however, like we said, the improvements did not manifest themselves in traditionally obvious ways. MLBTR projects a raise to $3.9 million for 2016.

Justin Grimm

Not unlike Coghlan, Grimm had another good showing in 2015, reaffirming what we saw the year prior. He wasn’t able to match his inning total in 2014 (69.0 IP), though, coming up roughly 20 innings shy in 2015 (49.2 IP). However, even in less time, he matched his WAR total and looked pretty great doing it. His sparkling 1.99 ERA and 12.14 K/9 should look plenty good to an arbitrator. As a Super Two Player* (see asterisk below), Grimm has to date acquired 2 years and 170 days of arbitration.

In 2015, Grimm was not eligible for arbitration and made $0.5315 million. Although he will see a raise in 2016, this is just Grimm’s first time through arbitration and, thus, the raise is not likely to be too significant. MLBTR is projecting a jump to $1.0M for 2016, which would be fairly typical for a Super Two reliever.

Hector Rondon

Rondon is a good bet to see a significant raise in 2016 because of his performance in 2015. More specifically, because the type of performance in 2015. As I’m sure you understand by now, Rondon was not only good by the advanced metrics in 2015, but he has all of the best traditional stats for a reliever, as well. It is tough to argue with 30 saves, 70 IP, 1.93 BB/9, and a 1.67 ERA. With exactly 3 years of service time under his belt, this will be Rondon’s first trip through arbitration, should it get there.

In 2015, Rondon made $0.544 million. In 2016, MLBTR believes that figure might jump all the way up to $3.6 million. That is a huge raise, but, whether it was because of traditional stats or advanced ones, Rondon has earned it.

Pedro Strop

Pedro Strop, like Grimm and Rondon before him, was mostly fantastic out of the bullpen in 2015. Finishing with a 2.91 ERA and 81 strike outs in 68 innings, Strop also completed 28 holds and 3 saves. Holds work a lot like saves do for closers and will likely strengthen Strop’s case in arbitration. Strop has acquired 4 years and 156 days of service. He will be eligible for arbitration for the third time in his career before being eligible again next year (he was a Super Two).

[adinserter block=”2″]Strop’s first time as an arbitration-eligible player was with the Cubs in 2014 when he signed for $1.325 million to avoid arbitration, and the second time was in 2015 when he signed for $2.525 million, again to avoid arbitration. Given that this is his third time through arbitration and he had an impressive year, MLBTR projects a healthy raise to $4.7 million in 2016. Given what we know about raises increasing the more times through arbitration and the type of performance he delivered in 2015, $4.7 million feels plenty obtainable for the delightfully excitable right hander.

Adam Warren

Warren is a fairly interesting case to follow, because he has started in the past, but is most likely going to be a reliever (or swing man or super utility pitcher) in 2016. In 2015, he started 17 games (131.1 IP), but he threw just 77.0 and 78.2 innings in the two years prior (only 3 starts combined). Last year, his ERA (3.29) was plenty good, as well, and, to be honest, every time I look into his statistics I get more excited about his potential for the years to come. As of now, he has acquired 3 years and 36 days of MLB service time, and is eligible for arbitration for the first time.

In 2015, Warren made $0.5726 million. MLBTR figures a healthy first-time arbitration salary jump all the way up to $1.5 million, though it seems a bit harder to project what he’ll get, given the varied background.

Travis Wood

Travis Wood will also be a tough case to call from afar, given how split his season was last year. If you recall, he started the year in the rotation, struggled, moved to the bullpen, and found a great deal of success there. The tricky part is that he will likely want to start again and would certainly point to his history of starting in an arbitration case. Wood finished 2015 with a 3.84 ERA and 10.55 K/9 over 100.2 innings. Wood has acquired 5 years and 4 days of MLB service time. This will be his third and final trip through arbitration, before becoming a free agent after the 2016 season.

In 2015, Travis Wood signed a contract worth $5.685 million, avoiding arbitration. Whether he relieves or starts in 2016, he will see a raise over that price this year. MLBTR believes that raise will be relatively moderate, though, bumping up to $6.4 million in 2016. This feels like an appropriate arbitration year three salary given what he’s made in the past and what he is likely to contribute in the future. Depending on the understanding between the front office and Wood’s side (re: starter vs. reliever), arbitration isn’t out of the question. Though, again, it basically never happens with this front office, so I wouldn’t bet on it.

Rex Brothers was eligible for arbitration, but has already settled for $1.42 million. Clayton Richard was eligible for arbitration, but has already settled for $2 million. If you notice Ryan Cook on the Cubs projected arbitration page, recall that Cook was non-tendered on December 2, after those projections were posted, and is no longer a consideration here.

*(There is one common exception to how many years of arbitration eligibility a player has and that comes via Super Two Eligibility. Super Two players include the top 22 percent of each season’s class of players (by service time) with between two and three years of service time, and at least 86 days on a 25-man roster or on the Major League DL. Super Two eligibility doesn’t change the years of control, but rather the amount of arbitration eligible years – the player gets four turns through arbitration instead of three.)

written by

Michael Cerami began covering the Chicago Cubs for Bleacher Nation as a part-time contributor in 2015. One year later, he joined Bleacher Nation full-time, covering the Chicago Cubs and Major League Baseball. Today, Michael runs Bleacher Nation, contributing as a writer (Cubs, MLB) and an editor for all sections of the site, including the Chicago Bears, Bulls, and Blackhawks, as well as MLB, NBA, NHL, and NFL. In 2019, Michael was the co-host of NBC Sports Chicago's Cubs Post-Game Show Outside the Ivy. You can find him on Twitter/X @Michael_Cerami

more cubs news

Justin Steele Injury Update: New Classification, MRI Tomorrow, IL Stint Coming? Steele and Counsell Speak

A significant update on Justin Steele came from Craig Counsell tonight after the Cubs extra innings loss in Texas. In short: Yes, a stint on the Injured List is likely for Justin Steele. But we still don't know how severe...

Enhanced Box Score: Rangers 4, Cubs 3 – March 28, 2024

It took exactly one day for the Cubs' ace to sustain what may be a significant injury, for their closer to blow a save, for the umpires to significantly impact the outcome of a critical play (this time in the...

OMG: Michael Busch Scored the 9th Inning, GO-AHEAD Run, Because He Just Never Stopped Running

That was absolutely incredible. To all the little kids out there, when your coach tells you to never stop running, this is why. Rookie Cubs 1B Michael Busch (the guy the Cubs got from the Dodgers this offseason to be...

Pre-Gamin’: Cubs at Rangers – Lineups, Pitching Matchup, Broadcast Info, Game Thread

*SHORT COURTS: It's Time To Bring The Home Court, Home! Looking for a unique way to celebrate your athlete or team before you peruse the FIRST CHICAGO CUBS LINEUP of the Year? Don't miss out! For just one more week...

The Cubs Are Among the Most Returning-y Teams

I am still mostly incapacitated at the moment, so apologies for the short shrift on such an otherwise blessed day. In between pokes and prods, I wanted to share a chart I saw that was pretty interesting, even if unsurprising:...

Maybe the Cubs Are the Favorites in the NL Central, After All?

ESPN was the first to throw some love the Cubs way this week, with an overwhelming majority of their writers, analysts, and editors picking the Chicago Cubs to win the NL Central in 2024. But the love doesn't end there....

The Season Begins, Love for Morel, Counsell’s Value, and Other Cubs Bullets

You know where you want to spend your Opening Day morning? The hospital! Suffice to say, this is not how I imagined getting HYPED for the Cubs' opener. I guess I'll just have to think about all the possible lineup...

Cubs vs Rangers: The First Series of the Year!

Cubs vs Rangers — THE REGULAR SEASON IS HERE! Wake up and rejoice. Later tonight, the Cubs will begin their march toward October Baseball against the (reigning World Series champion) Texas Rangers in Arlington. Justin Steele is getting the nod...

The 2024 Chicago Cubs for Dummies

Boom. We made it. The offseason is over, and the Cubs regular season - and those elevated expectations - begins tomorrow. But in case you slept through the winter, I'm here to catch you up on everything you need to...

I’m Expecting More This Year, Cubs — It’s Time to Start Winning

There's no way around it: The Chicago Cubs did *not* have the offseason we hoped they might after making Craig Counsell the highest paid manager in MLB history. Not that they did poorly, mind you. Cody Bellinger, Shota Imanaga, and...

Latest News

Big Ten Basketball Predictions, Computer Picks and Best Bets | March 29

There is one game on the postseason college basketball schedule on Friday that feature Big Ten squads, and we have best bets recomendations. That matchup is the Gonzaga Bulldogs versus the Purdue Boilermakers.How to Bet on Big Ten Games[lasso ref="draftkings-promo-1"...

SEC Basketball Predictions, Computer Picks and Best Bets | March 30

The Friday postseason college basketball slate includes two games featuring an SEC team in action. Among those games is the Creighton Bluejays playing the Tennessee Volunteers. Here are our recomendations for the best bets on action throughout the conference.How to...

Big 12 Basketball Predictions, Computer Picks and Best Bets | March 30

There is one game on the postseason college basketball schedule on Friday that feature Big 12 squads, and we have best bets recomendations. That matchup is the Duke Blue Devils versus the Houston Cougars.How to Bet on Big 12 Games[lasso...

ACC Basketball Predictions, Computer Picks and Best Bets | March 29

There are two games on the postseason college basketball schedule on Friday that feature ACC squads, and we have best bets recomendations. That includes the Duke Blue Devils versus the Houston Cougars.How to Bet on ACC Games[lasso rel="draftkings-promo-1" id="299003"]Best ACC...

Big East Basketball Predictions, Computer Picks and Best Bets | March 29

There are three games on the postseason college basketball schedule on Friday that feature Big East squads, and we have best bets recomendations. That includes the Creighton Bluejays versus the Tennessee Volunteers.How to Bet on Big East Games[lasso ref="draftkings-promo-1" id="299003"...

Braves vs. Phillies Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Atlanta Braves open their season as -125 favorites in a road matchup with the Philadelphia Phillies on Friday at 3:05 PM ET, live on BSSO.Spencer Strider takes the mound for Atlanta while Zack Wheeler is Philadelphia's starter for the...

Washington State vs. Illinois Women’s Basketball: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

Two hot teams meet when the Washington State Cougars (21-14) host the Illinois Fighting Illini (17-15) on April 1, 2024. The Cougars will put their three-game win streak on the line against the Fighting Illini, who have won three straight.On...

Villanova vs. Penn State Women’s Basketball: Free Live Stream, TV Channel, How to Watch

The Villanova Wildcats (21-12) will try to extend a three-game winning streak when they host the Penn State Lady Lions (22-12) on April 1, 2024. The Lady Lions have also won three games in a row.In its previous game, Villanova...

Brewers vs. Mets Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Milwaukee Brewers look to start their season with a win as road favorites (-110) in a season-opening matchup with the New York Mets. First pitch is on Friday at 1:40 PM ET on SNY, live from Citi Field.Freddy Peralta...

Braves vs. Phillies Probable Starting Pitchers – March 29

The Atlanta Braves (0-0) and the Philadelphia Phillies (0-0) match up on Friday at Citizens Bank Park for Opening Day. First pitch is at 3:05 PM ET.The Braves will look to Spencer Strider versus the Phillies and Zack Wheeler.Braves vs....

more cubs news