Don’t Sleep on Addison Russell for 2016 and Other Bullets

addison russell batting cubsIt’s remarkable how your kids can go through an entire spring, summer, and most of the fall without a single bit of sickness. Then the weather turns just slightly, and boom, enough back-to-back sicknesses to last the rest of the year (I hope).

On the bright side, since I’ve been making healthier choices over the past year and a half or so, it seems like I’m less suceptible to getting everything they get, or being as far under the weather when I do pick something up.

  • Mark your calendars, friends: Cubs single game tickets will go on sale February 26. You are advised in advance that they’re going to go quickly this year, especially for the most attractive games. Last year, the home opener sold out within 10 minutes or so, and the most popular summer weekend games were gone eventually, too. Just be prepared.
  • I enjoyed this read on the boom of young shortstops in the game, in which Addison Russell was naturally included. That got me looking at Russell’s projections for 2016, because I noticed in the article that he was the rare guy whose Steamer projection (2.2. WAR) was lower than his actual WAR in 2015 (2.9). That’s pretty odd, when you consider that he’s a young guy who should, in theory, get better. Digging around, Steamer is projecting a very slight improvement offensively for Russell, but basically flat (he’s going to improve – you can hold me to that), and it isn’t buying that his sublime defense will repeat itself next year. Steamer also has him missing some 30 games, so that dings the WAR total. ZiPS is more optimistic, projecting a more healthy bump in offense (just below a league average bat), appears to buy the defense just a bit more, and gives him a 2.8 WAR.
  • [adinserter block=”1″]

  • I’d still bet the over, but I do know that you can’t necessarily expect Russell to once again be one of the best defensive players in baseball, and you also can’t necessarily expect him not to go through offensive growing pains. Still: we’re talking about a preternaturally gifted player who barely played at AAA at all, and then more than held his own at 21 in the big leagues. Addison Russell is a stud on a team full of studs, and I don’t want to lose sight of him.
  • Jesse Rogers writes about the Jake Arrieta arbitration case, and I think he’s pretty much spot on in everything he said. Although there’s a significant gap between the Cubs’ offer ($7.5 million) and Arrieta’s ask ($13 million), there’s no reason to believe that’s anything more than each side playing the game, and setting themselves up for an optimal settlement. In the end, I think Arrieta beats the midpoint ($10.25 million), and gets closer to $11 million. Indeed, I suspect that the Cubs’ relatively low offer may have been setting up a situation where they could be in a position to go over the midpoint and still keep things in that $11 million range. Don’t forget: whatever Arrieta makes in 2016 will have a significant impact on his 2017 salary, too – that’s his final year of arbitration.
  • A couple more items on yesterday’s big MLB lawsuit settlement:
  • So, when you read that all together – and, remember, the full and final settlement terms will have to be reviewed before we draw any *hard* conclusions – it seems like the plaintiffs accepted the settlement for two reasons: (1) lowered prices and a single-team option, and (2) eventually, MLB will have to make in-market streaming available by way of MLB.tv *if* you are already an authenticated subscriber of an RSN that otherwise carries the game. In other words, the blackouts are not ending (and it remains to be seen whether the territories will at least shrink a bit), but MLB didn’t want to prevent folks from being able to stream games on their other devices if they wanted to, because, you know, it’s 2016. At the same time, MLB was very sensitive to not selling out the RSN’s that have paid huge money for the rights to broadcast games, because, you know, that’s where the big baseball money is coming from these days. Sorry, friends, as I guessed yesterday: this is not the end of blackouts.
  • [adinserter block=”2″]

  • I’m glad Michael took yesterday’s DH discussion, because I agree with everything he said, and I know where what he said gets you (beat up by many DH haterz). Well, I should say I agree with almost everything he said – one thing I think is worth considering: if MLB uses interleague games as a DH stepping stone (i.e., all interleague games, regardless of park, feature a DH), that’ll still help the AL teams a bit more than the NL teams, because the difference between an NL pitcher and an AL pitcher (offensively) is still much less than the difference between an AL DH (dedicated position) and an NL DH (bringing a bench guy into the game somewhere). So, while I agree with Michael’s point on that issue – it brings us closer to a full-time NL DH, which I like – I just wanted to add that it could only serve to exacerbate the inequity. But, from my perspective, maybe that’s a good thing, since it could move the discussion along further.
  • A fun read at BP on the “flames” on Fox broadcasts, and how fastball velocity has increased in the past decade.
  • Over at Baseball is Fun, Joey Votto did something strange, and I don’t know why he did, but I very much enjoyed Michael finding it.
  • They say after the holidays is the best time to buy holiday stuff – and clearly it’s true, because a Cubs elf is on sale. Since everyone needs to own a Cubs elf.
  • If you missed it earlier this morning, Luke wrote about one of the best prospect stories from 2015, righty Ryan Williams.
  • written by

    Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

    more cubs news

    Taillon Coming Back, Busch’s Integrity and Success, Bad News for the White Sox, Wicks, Hendricks, and Other Cubs Bullets

    As the father of a toddler who was sick for an entire week — the same week Brett was out from his back surgery and the Cubs were playing almost exclusively late-night ballgames on the West Coast — I was...

    You’ll Be Even More Impressed with Hayden Wesneski, When You Hear What it Took to Get Him to Arizona

    Hayden Wesneski was the hero of yesterday's finale and series-win over the Arizona Diamondbacks, coming in to clean up Jordan Wicks' (little) mess in the 5th ... and then tossing 4 shutout innings to save an over-used bullpen and help...

    Offseason Cubs Target Robert Stephenson Now Out for the Year

    Hand up, I really wanted the Cubs to sign reliever Robert Stephenson this offseason. I felt like they could use one more impact arm (accurate), and I felt like Stephenson was one of the best available (about that ... )....

    Rays Closer Pete Fairbanks With a Wonderful and Brutally Honest Line About His Performance

    Rays closer Pete Fairbanks has been an extremely effective reliever the last four years, posting a 2.66 ERA from 2020 through 2023, with a 34.8% K rate and worth 4.1 WAR. But things have started out much more rough for...

    Still Thinking About That Incredible Christopher Morel Play

    I don't want to overreact to a relatively brief stretch of success, and I certainly don't want to jinx anything. But Christopher Morel has looked pretty darn solid at third base the last couple weeks, hasn't he? Maybe some of...

    Enhanced Box Score: Cubs 5, Diamondbacks 3 – April 17, 2024

    UNCLENCH. They did it. There was 9th inning drama, because of course there was, but Drew Smyly was able to get the job done, pitching for the third consecutive day. Cubs win the game, Cubs win the series. Cubs win...

    Cody Bellinger’s Third Homer of the Year Breaks the Tie in Arizona!

    Thank god. I was starting to think Brandon Pfaadt was Cy Young in disguise or something. I can't stand (or understand, for that matter) how this guy carves up the Cubs while getting destroyed by almost everybody else. But at...

    Watch Owen Caissie Launch His First Triple-A Home Run (Off a Lefty, Too!)

    Owen Caissie is just one of several Cubs top prospects at Triple-A Iowa this season, but after a monster Spring Training performance (following an equally impressive Double-A debut last season), he's got a lot of eyes on him this summer....

    Cubs Call Up a Couple of Fresh Arms from Iowa

    In discussing the potential for a Cubs move today for a fresh arm, I wondered if they'd go down and grab someone already on the 40-man roster or if they'd shift Julian Merryweather over to the 60-day IL to make...

    Pre-Gamin’: Cubs vs Diamondbacks – Lineups, Broadcast Info, Game Thread

    CUBS LINEUP — How many rubber matches can one team have? After two wild games to start the series, the Cubs are looking to win their second-consecutive series this afternoon in Arizona. Jordan Wicks is on the mound for Chicago....

    Latest News

    Giants vs. Diamondbacks Probable Starting Pitchers – April 18

    The San Francisco Giants (8-11) host the Arizona Diamondbacks (9-10) on Thursday to kick off a four-game series at Oracle Park. The contest starts at 9:45 PM ET.The probable pitchers are Logan Webb (1-1) for the Giants and Ryne Nelson...

    Cubs vs. Marlins Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, April 18, 2024

    The Miami Marlins (4-15) enter Thursday's matchup with the Chicago Cubs (11-7) following their 1-2 series defeat to the Giants. The Cubs, coming off of a series win against the Diamondbacks, are listed as -160 favorites for Game 1. The...

    Draft Day is Coming, NFC North QB Prospect Watch, Crews, Warren, and Other Bears Bullets

    The Chicago Cubs finished a winning road trip with a series win against the defending NL champs. Taylor Swift has a new album that drops at 11 p.m. CT. And the Chicago Bears will usher in a new quarterback era...

    New Orleans Saints 1st Round Mock Draft: Saints Strengthen the Trenches with Offensive Line

    The New Orleans Saints enter the 2024 draft with a glaring need on their offensive line. This New Orleans Saints 1st round mock draft focuses on addressing their biggest needs. With questions surrounding the long-term health of Ryan Ramczyk and...

    Taillon Coming Back, Busch’s Integrity and Success, Bad News for the White Sox, Wicks, Hendricks, and Other Cubs Bullets

    As the father of a toddler who was sick for an entire week — the same week Brett was out from his back surgery and the Cubs were playing almost exclusively late-night ballgames on the West Coast — I was...

    If You Haven’t Seen Coby White Destroy Atlanta Yet, What Are You Waiting For?

    Coby White played the best game of his career on Wednesday night. In front of a packed United Center with the season on the line, White looked like the best player on the floor. He propelled the Bulls to a...

    Cubs vs. Marlins Probable Starting Pitchers – April 18

    The Miami Marlins (4-15) start a four-game series against the Chicago Cubs (11-7) on Thursday at Wrigley Field. First pitch is at 7:40 PM.The Cubs will give the nod to Jameson Taillon against the Marlins and Andrew Jacob Puk (0-3).Cubs...

    Green Bay Packers Draft Picks: Full List of NFL Draft Selections

    The Green Packers made some noise in the playoffs last season and hope to build on that success in the 2024 NFL Draft. Take a look at the Packers draft picks for 2024. Green Bay Packers 2024 NFL Draft Picks...

    Cincinnati Bengals Draft Picks: Full List of NFL Draft Selections

    The Bengals missed the playoffs in 2023 and QB Joe Burrow played just 10 games. The team is now moving forward and focusing on the 2024 NFL Draft. Check out the Bengals list of draft picks for 2024. Cincinnati Bengals...

    DraftKings Promo Code: Unlock $200 New User Bonus for Thursday!

    Are you ready to experience the thrill of sports betting? The new DraftKings promo code is here to get you started. DraftKings, one of the leading online sportsbooks in the United States, is offering a fantastic opportunity for new users...

    more cubs news