It’s PECOTA day at Baseball Prospectus, as the site unveils its annual projection system. It’ll take a good long while to deconstruct everything in there, but I’d like to take a quick crack at it and put some things on your radar. When you’ve got some time, you should really dig in. It’s fascinating stuff.
Up front, I’ll note that projection systems are definitionally conservative toward the mean, and, in my experience, that’s especially been true for PECOTA. You don’t see absolutely enormous projections, and you usually also don’t see abysmal regressions projected, either. Players who are projected for 3+ WARP (that’s BP’s version of WAR) are expected to be really good players. Your context on that: Bryce Harper is projected for 5.1 WARP. Mike Trout is at 7.3.
All right, on to some things …
[adinserter block=”1″]
The Cubs, overall, are projected for 92 wins, which strikes me as really fair projection. Given how difficult baseball is to predict, and given that you can’t assume outliers in an on-paper projection, 92 wins is a lot of wins. When things actually sort out over the course of the season, I could easily see the Cubs winning many more games than that. But 92 feels like a pretty good over/under line.
It’s not the highest win total in baseball, though. That honor belongs to the team I keep trying to tell people looks really strong on paper: the Dodgers, at 94 wins. How do they get there? Like I’ve said: crazy depth. Money helps on that front, but so does an excellent big-league-ready prospect pool. (It doesn’t hurt that PECOTA thinks Yasmani Grandal (5.9) will be worth more than Clayton Kershaw (5.1), though …. )
The Cubs are tied with the Indians – yes, the Indians – for the second best record, behind the Dodgers. PECOTA adores the Indians’ pitching staff, both the rotation and the bullpen. Understandable.
The Cardinals project for just 82 wins (which is a defensible projection, but I don’t see that), and the Pirates for just 79 wins, two better than the Brewers (love ya PECOTA, but that’s not defensible – something is broken there). (UPDATE: Yup, looks like something was broken. The Pirates have been bumped up to a more defensible 83 wins.)
As for the Cubs, specifically, Kris Bryant projects as the best overall player (4.8 WARP), with all of Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist, Kyle Schwarber, Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester worth roughly the same (3.6 to 3.8 WARP). Given the conservatism in the projections, I take that as a good bit of love for everyone in that group except Arrieta. On his front, given how good we know he can be, I take that instead as caution, and not quite yet buying in on his next level performance. For what it’s worth, Arrieta was worth 4.7 WARP in 2014, and 7.4 WARP in 2015. If he’s healthy, I’m very much buying that he’s a next level guy.
[adinserter block=”2″]
The rest of the pitching staff lands about where you’d expect it, and I don’t immediately see any big surprises.
You probably noticed that I didn’t mention Jason Heyward in that group above – that’s because he’s a clear tier down from them, which is really strange. PECOTA is projecting him well below his career averages offensively for some reason, and must not be buying that he’ll be any good in center field. At 2.6 WARP, I’ll take the over. By a lot.
PECOTA thinks Tommy La Stella could be a really nice bench player, with a .269/.342/.380 line.
Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here.
Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.
The Cubs cannot catch a break this year, man. They've already dealt with injuries to Jameson Taillon, Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly, Julian Merryweather, Seiya Suzuki, and Ian Happ (did I forget anyone?). And tonight, it seems maybe something...
Well there was one big thing not to like about tonight's game - Cody Bellinger was lifted with a right rib contusion after colliding with the outfield wall - and about a million things that were great. And since we...
Nothing like a little insurance late. Mike Tauchman, who already hit his first home run of the season earlier in this game, just hit his second home run in the 8th! Another opposite field blast for Tauchman, who's been hitting...
It really is a Cubs homer party up and down the system. In Chicago, Cody Bellinger and Mike Tauchman have gone deep. At Myrtle Beach, Christian Hernandez and Jefferson Encarnacion each homered. At South Bend, Yohendrick Pinango homered. And at...
Kevin Alcantara wasted no time giving the Tennessee Smokies the lead on Tuesday night (or maybe he just wanted to be a spiritual part of the homer party going on at Wrigley Field). Facing off against the Rocket City Trash...
I don't like to use "ambush" lightly. But what would you call it when the Cubs put five balls in play over 100 MPH, including a single, a double, and two home runs en route to putting five runs on...
Ian Happ was back in the Cubs lineup tonight after missing a few games with a sore hamstring. And in his first at-bat back, he sent one 412 feet to dead-center field for a VERY long double (Statcast says it...
CUBS LINEUP — The Chicago Cubs are back in action tonight for the first of three games against the Houston Astros at Wrigley Field. Here's a look at the Cubs lineup for Game 1. Chicago Cubs Lineup: Nico Hoerner, 2B...
I know what you're thinking – what the heck is this basketball junkie doing over here on our turf!? He normally only shows up when he accidentally puts his Bulls articles in the wrong category! I need a little palate cleanser...
If you're familiar with me/my writing, you know how much I love good pitching. To that end, Jared Jones has been one of my favorite stories of the young season. And on Monday, he gave us one of the best...
The Atlanta Braves (16-6), who will give the ball to Reynaldo Lopez, host the Miami Marlins (6-19) with Sixto Sanchez on the hill, Wednesday at 7:20 PM ET.The article below will give you everything you need to watch Atlanta play...
On Wednesday, Josh Fleming will take the mound for the Pittsburgh Pirates (13-11) against Bryse Wilson and the Milwaukee Brewers (14-8), with first pitch scheduled for 6:40 PM ET at PNC Park.See how to watch the Pittsburgh-Milwaukee matchup below.When is...
On Wednesday, Carlos Carrasco will take the mound for the Cleveland Guardians (17-6) versus Cooper Criswell and the Boston Red Sox (13-11), with first pitch scheduled for 6:10 PM ET at Progressive Field.The article below will provide you with everything...
The Tampa Bay Lightning are -110 on the moneyline versus the Florida Panthers (-110) on Thursday, with this tight-looking matchup taking place at Amalie Arena in Tampa.Lightning vs. Panthers Favorite, Moneyline, TotalFavorite: Lightning (-110)Underdog: Panthers (-110)Total: 6Best Lightning vs. Panthers...
The New York Rangers have been made -180 on the moneyline against the Washington Capitals (+150) on Friday, despite this game taking place at Capital One Arena in Washington.Rangers vs. Capitals Favorite, Moneyline, TotalFavorite: Rangers (-180)Underdog: Capitals (+150)Total: 5.5Best Rangers...
The San Francisco Giants (11-13), with Blake Snell on the hill, host the New York Mets (12-10) who will start Sean Manaea, at 3:45 PM ET on Wednesday.The article below will provide you with everything you need to know to...
On Wednesday, Dean Kremer will take the mound for the Baltimore Orioles (15-7) versus Tyler Anderson and the Los Angeles Angels (9-14), with first pitch scheduled for 4:07 PM ET at Angel Stadium of Anaheim.The article below will give you...
Nothing like a little insurance late. Mike Tauchman, who already hit his first home run of the season earlier in this game, just hit his second home run in the 8th! Another opposite field blast for Tauchman, who's been hitting...
On Wednesday, Jon Gray will start for the Texas Rangers (12-12) against Bryce Miller and the Seattle Mariners (12-11), with first pitch scheduled for 8:05 PM ET at Globe Life Field.Keep reading to find out all the details on how...
The Cubs cannot catch a break this year, man. They've already dealt with injuries to Jameson Taillon, Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly, Julian Merryweather, Seiya Suzuki, and Ian Happ (did I forget anyone?). And tonight, it seems maybe something...