Cubs Off-Day Check-In: Things Are Still Rosy All Over

cubs win standings flags scoreboard

The last scheduled off-day for the Chicago Cubs was May 16th, but that came so quickly after the one before it (May 12) that we didn’t need to check back in to see how much better or worse the Cubs were doing.

Now that it’s been another two weeks, however, let’s dive back in and see where the Cubs’ record and playoff odds, and a variety of offensive and pitching statistics stand within the division, the league, and all of baseball.

Since our last off-day check-in, the Cubs hit a bid of a skid. They went 5-7 during that stretch of twelve games (they dropped the final two just before this stretch, as well, so hooray for arbitrary cutoffs), against the Pirates, Brewers, Giants and Cardinals. That would look bad, but luckily four of the five wins came against the Pirates and Cardinals, so their place in the division is actually quite strong.

Check the NL Central standings as of the start of play today:

  1. Chicago Cubs: 31-14 (.689)
  2. Pittsburgh Pirates: 26-19 (.578)
  3. St. Louis Cardinals: 24-23 (.511)
  4. Milwaukee Brewers: 20-26 (.435)
  5. Cincinnati Reds: 15-32 (.319)

But if you think the Cubs’ 5-7 stretch was bad, consider this: the last time we checked in, the Reds were 14-20. Now, they’re 15-32 after losing their last ten straight (they just went 1-13 during a 14-game stretch … yikes). So, yeah, things could be worse.

The Cubs still have a five game lead over the Pirates (eight games over the Cardinals) in the NL Central, which is still the biggest lead over second place in any division. Although they couldn’t maintain their .758 winning percentage from last time, the Cubs are still on pace to win 111.6 games. I guess that’ll do.[adinserter block=”1″]

And even through this rough stretch of baseball, the Cubs are still, still, still performing better than their record indicates.

Despite the last two weeks of mostly losing, the Cubs’ run differential actually increased from +99 to +119. In other words, the Cubs have scored 119 more runs than they’ve allowed. That remains the best in baseball by far, and is why you shouldn’t be too concerned about the recent expected regression in the win column. Here are the rest of the top five run differentials, so you can put that in perspective:

  1. Chicago Cubs: +119
  2. Boston Red Sox: +78
  3. Seattle Mariners: +54
  4. Washington Nationals: +51
  5. St. Louis Cardinals: +41

The Cubs’ run differential is 41 runs better than the second place Red Sox and more than double the third place Nationals. Better yet, the Cardinals dropped from second place (+50 RD) to fifth place (+41) since our last check in. The Cubs have now scored the second most (formerly first) runs per game (5.69) to the Boston Red Sox (5.96), but continue to allow the fewest runs per game (2.73) of any team in baseball.

Which is all a roundabout way of saying that their expected record is actually a few games better than reality by two separate measures:

  • Chicago Cubs Pythagorean Record: 34-11
  • Chicago Cubs BaseRuns Record: 33-12
  • The Pythagorean and BaseRuns records are a way to measure how many games a team should have won over a given stretch based on the number of runs score and allowed (Pythagorean) and other underlying metrics (BaseRuns). Obviously, teams frequently under and over-perform these numbers, but they are usually a pretty good indication of how well a team may do going forward. The Cubs, according to those to numbers, should have probably won about 2-3 more games.[adinserter block=”2″]

    Further proving the point, even the Adjusted Standings at Baseball Prospectus (based on underlying performance) have the Cubs winning up to 35.5 games total so far.

    So, yeah, the Cubs have the best record in baseball, but it should probably be even best-ier. At the very least, like I said, this is a good sign for the rest of the season. According to both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus, the Cubs will win 69 (FG) or 68 (BP) more games this season, which would put them right at 100 and 99 wins respectively. That’s five more wins than any team for the rest of the season and seven more than the next best team when all is said and done. I think we’d all be plenty happy with those results.

    So, what does it mean for the playoffs and beyond? Let’s check back in on that at FanGraphs.

    Chicago Cubs Playoff Odds (FanGraphs)

  • Chances of winning the division: 94.3% (no change)
  • Chances of reaching the playoffs: 98.9% (no change)
  • Chances of winning the NLDS: 55.5% (+0.2)
  • Chances of winning the NLCS: 32.7% (+1.2%)
  • Chances of winning the World Series: 19.7% (+1.0%)
  • Like I say every time. These aren’t some homery, made up numbers seen throw blue-rose colored glasses. These are the statistical models that are doing their best to objectively measure what is likely to happen at the end of the season. And it’s not just FanGraphs.

    Chicago Cubs Playoff Odds (Baseball Prospectus):

  • Chances of winning the division: 93.5% (+0.2)
  • Chances of reaching the playoffs: 98.3% (-0.4)
  • Chances of winning the World Series: 17.3% (+0.8)
  • [adinserter block=”3″]

    The Cubs, then, are flirting with a near certain shot of reaching the playoffs [Brett: bite your tongue, statistical projections!] and a basically a 1 in 5 chance of winning the world series. The next closes team in terms of reaching the playoffs with any sort of certainty is the Red Sox at 85.0% – that’s 13 percentage points lower than the Cubs!

    Even as the Cubs winning percentage comes back down to a terrestrial level, they are still favorites to win more games, including ones in October, than any team in baseball. They have really played exceedingly well and that remains true for the cold stretch they (hopefully) just exited. Check out some of their statistics via FanGraphs, with their league ranking and relative positioning since last time in parenthesis:

    Chicago Cubs Offensive Statistics

  • Walk Rate: 12.2% (Today: 1st – Previously: 1st)
  • Strikeout Rate: 19.8% (Today: 10th – Previously: 10th)
  • ISO: .165 (Today: 12th – Previously: 10th)
  • OBP: .359 (Today: 3rd – Previously:1st)
  • SLG: .424 (Today: 10th – Previously: 8th)
  • wOBA: .342 (Today: 4th – Previously: 3rd)
  • wRC+: 113 (Today: 4th – Previously: 5th)
  • Chicago Cubs Pitching Statistics

  • ERA: 2.74 (Today: 1st – Previously: 1st)
  • FIP: 3.38 (Today: T-3rd – Previously: 3rd)
  • xFIP: 3.56 (Today: 4th – Previously: 3rd)
  • K-Rate: 24.5% (Today: 2nd – Previously: 2nd)
  • Walk Rate: 8.6% (Today: 20th – Previously: 15th) – increase of 0.4% points.
  • K/BB: 2.86 (Today: 10th – Previously: 7th)
  • AVG (against): .200 (Today: 1st – Previously:1st)
  • WHIP: 1.07 (Today: 1st – Previously:1st)
  • So, as you can see, the Cubs remained neutral in seven categories (Batting BB-rate, Batting K-rate, ERA, FIP, Pitching K-rate, Batting Avg. Against and WHIP) relative to the rest of the league, went down in seven other categories (ISO, OBP, SLG, wOBA, xFIP, Pitching BB-rate and K/BB), while improving in wRC+.

    It’s not the explosive performance that we saw at the beginning of the season, but they are among the top five teams in ten different statistics spanning offense and pitching. That’s not easy to pull off. The variety, versatility and flexibility of this team is their strong suit. They don’t have to be the best in any one category as long as they continue to be very good in all of them.

    A lot will happen before the season is over, but on today’s off-day, things continue to look good.

    written by

    Michael Cerami began covering the Chicago Cubs for Bleacher Nation as a part-time contributor in 2015. One year later, he joined Bleacher Nation full-time, covering the Chicago Cubs and Major League Baseball. Today, Michael runs Bleacher Nation, contributing as a writer (Cubs, MLB) and an editor for all sections of the site, including the Chicago Bears, Bulls, and Blackhawks, as well as MLB, NBA, NHL, and NFL. In 2019, Michael was the co-host of NBC Sports Chicago's Cubs Post-Game Show Outside the Ivy. You can find him on Twitter/X @Michael_Cerami

    more cubs news

    Maybe the Cubs Are the Favorites in the NL Central, After All?

    ESPN was the first to throw some love the Cubs way this week, with an overwhelming majority of their writers, analysts, and editors picking the Chicago Cubs to win the NL Central in 2024. But the love doesn't end there....

    The Season Begins, Love for Morel, Counsell’s Value, and Other Cubs Bullets

    You know where you want to spend your Opening Day morning? The hospital! Suffice to say, this is not how I imagined getting HYPED for the Cubs' opener. I guess I'll just have to think about all the possible lineup...

    Cubs vs Rangers: The First Series of the Year!

    Cubs vs Rangers — THE REGULAR SEASON IS HERE! Wake up and rejoice. Later tonight, the Cubs will begin their march toward October Baseball against the (reigning World Series champion) Texas Rangers in Arlington. Justin Steele is getting the nod...

    The 2024 Chicago Cubs for Dummies

    Boom. We made it. The offseason is over, and the Cubs regular season - and those elevated expectations - begins tomorrow. But in case you slept through the winter, I'm here to catch you up on everything you need to...

    I’m Expecting More This Year, Cubs — It’s Time to Start Winning

    There's no way around it: The Chicago Cubs did *not* have the offseason we hoped they might after making Craig Counsell the highest paid manager in MLB history. Not that they did poorly, mind you. Cody Bellinger, Shota Imanaga, and...

    I Dug Deep on the Cubs 2024 Schedule (And I Like What I See)

    Finally, with Cody Bellinger in the fold, we can start focusing more seriously on the season ahead. So today, I thought we'd take a look at the Cubs 2024 schedule. You can flip through the Cubs 2024 schedule right here...

    Here’s What I’m Betting on the Cubs for Opening Day

    I get it. Sports betting isn't for everyone — like, say, the interpreter for an international baseball superstar — but some of us quite enjoy it! If you are one of those people, this article is for you. Below, I'm...

    WAKE UP, BASEBALL IS BACK

    The day has arrived. Opening Day. The most glorious day on the baseball calendar, save for the day of each Chicago Cubs World Series win, of course. See, I get to say things like that on Opening Day. Maybe the...

    Wrigley Field is Gonna Be Lit This Year (As in New Colored Lights!)

    Last year, the Cubs started using their new LED outfield lights to do a little dancing display during 'Go Cubs Go,' lighting along with the song and throwing in a W. It was very fun and I liked it. This...

    Why Craig Counsell Wanted Miles Mastrobuoni on the Cubs’ Bench

    I don't know why Miles Mastrobuoni bugs some folks, but it's probably heavily-weighted toward his small-sample, bad-batted-ball-luck start last year, and that time he didn't dive while playing in right field. It can be hard to shake initial impressions, I...

    Latest News

    Guardians vs. Athletics Probable Starting Pitchers – March 28

    The Cleveland Guardians (0-0) and the Oakland Athletics (0-0) square off on Thursday at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum for Opening Day. First pitch is at 10:07 PM ET.The Guardians will call on Shane Bieber versus the Athletics and Alex Wood.Guardians vs....

    Mariners vs. Red Sox Probable Starting Pitchers – March 28

    The Seattle Mariners (0-0) open their 2024 season with a home contest against the Boston Red Sox (0-0) on Thursday, with first pitch at 10:10 PM ET.The Mariners will look to Luis Castillo against the Red Sox and Brayan Bello.Mariners...

    Diamondbacks vs. Rockies Probable Starting Pitchers – March 28

    The Arizona Diamondbacks (0-0) begin their 2024 season with a home matchup against the Colorado Rockies (0-0) on Thursday, with first pitch at 10:10 PM ET.The Diamondbacks will give the nod to Zac Gallen against the Rockies and Kyle Freeland.Diamondbacks...

    Buffalo Bills 1st Round Mock Draft: Wild Crossroads at 28 – Offense or Defense?

    The Buffalo Bills stand at a crossroads. The 2024 NFL Draft looms, and the 28th pick presents a fascinating dilemma. This Buffalo Bills 1st Round Mock Draft analyzes 10 different options that could be available to them at their current...

    How to Watch Celtics vs. Hawks: Live Stream or on TV

    The Atlanta Hawks (33-39) hope to continue a three-game home winning stretch when hosting the Boston Celtics (57-15) on Thursday, March 28, 2024 at 7:30 PM ET.In their last time out, the Celtics lost 120-118 to the Hawks on Monday....

    Rangers vs. Cubs Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

    The Texas Rangers look to start their season with a win as home favorites (-120) in a season-opening matchup with the Chicago Cubs. First pitch is on Thursday at 7:35 PM ET on ESPN, live from Globe Life Field.Texas' Nathan...

    Dejounte Murray Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Celtics – Thursday, March 28, 2024

    Will Dejounte Murray make four 3-pointers when the Atlanta Hawks face the Boston Celtics on Thursday at 7:30 PM ET? If so, he'll beat his prop for the game.Dejounte Murray's Three-Pointer Prop Odds vs. the CelticsDejounte Murray's over/under for three-pointers...

    Bogdan Bogdanovic Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Celtics – Thursday, March 28, 2024

    To beat his 3-point over/under, Bogdan Bogdanovic needs to make three from beyond the arc on Thursday, when his Atlanta Hawks meet the Boston Celtics on Thursday at 7:30 PM ET.Bogdan Bogdanovic's Three-Pointer Prop Odds vs. the CelticsBogdan Bogdanovic's over/under...

    Jayson Tatum Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Hawks – Thursday, March 28, 2024

    At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, it'll be the Boston Celtics versus the Atlanta Hawks, with Jayson Tatum needing three treys to beat his 3-pointer prop.Jayson Tatum's Three-Pointer Prop Odds vs. the HawksJayson Tatum's over/under for three-pointers in this game:...

    Jaylen Brown Player Props: Three-Pointer Props and Odds vs. the Hawks – Thursday, March 28, 2024

    To beat his 3-point prop, Jaylen Brown must make three from beyond the arc on Thursday, when his Boston Celtics play the Atlanta Hawks on Thursday at 7:30 PM ET.Jaylen Brown's Three-Pointer Prop Odds vs. the HawksJaylen Brown's over/under for...

    more cubs news