The Strike Zone, the Arrieta Adjustments, the Losses, and Other Bullets

Jul 03, 2016

A win today sure would be nice. It doesn’t salvage the series for the Cubs or anything like that, but it would certainly make the next 36 hours much more tolerable.

I know there have been other things in this series to seize upon, but I keep coming back to the fact that the Cubs are 0-17 with runners in scoring position. In some ways, that’s galling as hell, because with two one-run losses in the series, you know that the Cubs could have won both of those games if they’d just had a measly two or three hits in those RISP spots instead of zero. (Heck, four hits in 17 tries is just a .235 average. Give me that!) In other ways, though, the RISP woes in the series are heartening, because it underscores how close the Cubs have been to winning these games, despite the feeling, perhaps, that the Cubs have been dominated. That’s really not the case.

… that said, a loss goes into the standings as a loss, however you parse it out. And in their last 13 games, the Cubs have 9 losses. However big their lead might be in the Central, that stings.[adinserter block=”1″]

Seeing Jake Arrieta fail once again to turn that corner – that corner we know he can turn! – also stings. After the game, another in which he fell behind hitters and could not consistently locate his fastball, Arrieta said much of the same as he’s said after the last two starts – he needs to be more aggressive early, his timing is off, the command is off, etc. (CSN). Arrieta expressed plenty of confidence that he’d get things back, and also downplayed the recent talk of him fixing something mechanically with Chris Bosio, noting that if you try to make too many adjustments or emphasize too many things mechanically, it can have the opposite of the desired effect.

On that part, it was hard not to feel like that was an issue watching Arrieta last night, especially in the first inning. I am #NotAScout, so I won’t be able to articulate this perfectly, but it looked like there was a lot of effort in how Arrieta was delivering his fastball in that first inning – not the kind of effort you see to generate velocity, but the effort designed to time certain things in the delivery. It just didn’t look quite natural or typical for Arrieta, which I suppose is what you’d expect it to look like if a guy was trying to tweak something mechanically to improve the timing of his delivery. The result was a fastball that sometimes was spot on, but other times missed its mark by a ton. In the middle and later innings, when Arrieta looked more natural and smooth, the fastball still missed at times, but it missed by a lot less.[adinserter block=”2″]

In the end, we have to remember that Arrieta has (1) a complicated delivery, (2) premium velocity, and (3) tons of movement. I think what we’re seeing right now, when things are just a touch off, is why the Orioles perhaps tried to simplify the delivery for Arrieta when he was younger (which actually wound up having the opposite of the desired effect). Those three things, including the crossfire delivery that makes it difficult for batters to get good wood on Arrieta, all make it very difficult to have pinpoint command. But, as we’ve seen, they’re also what makes Arrieta super elite when everything is working together smoothly. I remain confident, as Arrieta is, that things will click in due time. I never thought it was fair to expect second half 2015 Arrieta forever and always (the best half of pitching in baseball history), but I do think he is fundamentally a different pitcher than he was when the Cubs picked him up as a “failed” starter from the Orioles in 2013, and I’m not worried about Arrieta completely “losing it”, so long as he’s healthy. There will be good days again.

Sure, I’ll grouse about individual pitches while a game is happening, like any baseball fan would, but the reason I’m reluctant to call a zone total garbage overall immediately after a game when I’m writing the EBS is because I’ve seen this happen too many times. Everyone thought Laz Diaz’s zone last night was terrible, and clearly favored the Mets, but checking Brooks this morning … it’s really not that terrible. What I suspect was standing out to us was the inconsistency of the calls on the outside of the zone to righties (but that went both ways, and, on looking, actually wasn’t as inconsistent as I thought it would be), and the fact that the two most egregiously bad calls both went against the Cubs. So, my conclusion looking at the zone and pairing it with what happened in the game: it wasn’t as consistently terrible for the Cubs as it seemed, though a few calls did go against them, and it might have thrown a batter or two off. That could mean a lot in a one-run game, but I just can’t say it was a deciding factor. It rarely is.[adinserter block=”3″]

For his part, Joe Maddon said after the game that the strike zone was “amorphic” (Tribune), as in, its shape was hard to discern.

Carl Edwards Jr. looked good again last night, for what it’s worth. And his opportunities in key moments are clearly expanding.

We’ll see if there’s a roster move today, with Chris Coghlan exiting last night’s game with discomfort in his rib cage. Apparently he’s been dealing with it for a little while, and it might require a DL stint (Cubs.com). Tommy La Stella is likely to be ready to return to the Cubs soon – today? tomorrow? – so it might wind up being a one-for-one swap.

written by

Brett Taylor

Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

more cubs news

Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs Are Not Stealing Bases So Far This Year

The Chicago Cubs are against theft. Of bases: https://twitter.com/codifybaseball/status/1781046629103231339 The Chicago Cubs this year have stolen just three bases, the fewest in all of baseball. Dansby Swanson has stolen two bases, Nick Madrigal has stolen one. That's it. I don't...

Brett Taylor

Apr 19, 2024

Chicago Cubs

Cubs Roster Moves: Wisdom and Taillon Are Back, Wesneski and Mastrobuoni Are Out

Even with tonight's rainout, the Chicago Cubs are still making some roster moves. When Patrick Wisdom was removed (perfectly healthy) from the I-Cubs game in the 4th inning on Wednesday, we had an idea of what was coming next. When...

Michael Cerami

Apr 18, 2024

Chicago Cubs

Tonight’s Cubs-Marlins Game Has Been Postponed

The weather wasn't going to cooperate for Jameson Taillon's season debut, and tonight's Cubs-Marlins tilt has been postponed. The game will instead be part of a split-doubleheader this Saturday, with the first game at 1:20pm CT and the second at...

Brett Taylor

Apr 18, 2024

Chicago Cubs

MLBits: Paul Skenes Could Make His MLB Debut Any Day (But Probably Won’t), Red-Hot Orioles, Houck’s Maddux, More

If you're into tracking young pitchers with star potential like I am—as I watch Jack Leiter's debut while typing this column—then you're probably itching to see Pirates top prospect Paul Skenes make his way to Pittsburgh sooner than later. While...

Patrick K. Flowers

Apr 18, 2024

Chicago Cubs

Back to Wrigley: Cubs vs Marlins – Series Preview

Cubs vs Marlins — Whew! The Cubs got through their first West Coast road trip of the year, and did so with a winning record (5-4) against the Padres, Mariners, and Diamondbacks. They definitely let a couple games slip out...

Michael Cerami

Apr 18, 2024

Chicago Cubs

Taillon Coming Back, Busch’s Integrity and Success, Bad News for the White Sox, Wicks, Hendricks, and Other Cubs Bullets

As the father of a toddler who was sick for an entire week — the same week Brett was out from his back surgery and the Cubs were playing almost exclusively late-night ballgames on the West Coast — I was...

Michael Cerami

Apr 18, 2024

Chicago Cubs

Cubs Farm Report | April 18, 2024: Caissie, Alcántara Go Yard, South Bend and Myrtle Beach Smoked, More

Kevin Alcántara hit his first home run of the season for the Tennessee Smokies last night, and Owen Caissie hit his first Triple-A home run for the Iowa Cubs as Iowa and Tennessee secured victories. The same can't be said...

Patrick K. Flowers

Apr 18, 2024

Chicago Cubs

Cody Bellinger Sticking With Scott Boras

Given the way the offseason played out for super agent Scott Boras's top available clients - Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell, and Jordan Montgomery - you wouldn't be shocked to see some unhappiness behind the scenes. Did Boras overplay...

Brett Taylor

Apr 18, 2024

Chicago Cubs

You’ll Be Even More Impressed with Hayden Wesneski, When You Hear What it Took to Get Him to Arizona

Hayden Wesneski was the hero of yesterday's finale and series-win over the Arizona Diamondbacks, coming in to clean up Jordan Wicks' (little) mess in the 5th ... and then tossing 4 shutout innings to save an over-used bullpen and help...

Michael Cerami

Apr 18, 2024

Chicago Cubs

Offseason Cubs Target Robert Stephenson Now Out for the Year

Hand up, I really wanted the Cubs to sign reliever Robert Stephenson this offseason. I felt like they could use one more impact arm (accurate), and I felt like Stephenson was one of the best available (about that ... )....

Brett Taylor

Apr 18, 2024

Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs Are Not Stealing Bases So Far This Year

Brett Taylor

Apr 19, 2024

Picks

Cubs vs. Marlins Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Friday, April 19, 2024

The Chicago Cubs (11-7) host the Miami Marlins (4-15) on Friday to start a four-game series, with the first pitch at 2:20 PM ET from Wrigley Field. The Cubs are listed as -173 favorites, while the underdog Marlins have +144...

Data Skrive

Apr 19, 2024

MLB Prop Bets

Best MLB Prop Bets Today, April 19, 2024

There are 15 matchups on today's MLB schedule, including the Baltimore Orioles playing the Kansas City Royals.One of the best ways to wager on baseball is via MLB player prop bets. There are props for each of today's matchups, and...

Data Skrive

Apr 19, 2024

MLB Prop Bets

Cubs vs. Marlins Probable Starting Pitchers – April 19

The Miami Marlins (4-15) begin a four-game series against the Chicago Cubs (11-7) on Friday at Wrigley Field. First pitch is at 2:20 PM.The Cubs will give the nod to Jameson Taillon and the Marlins will turn to Andrew Jacob...

Data Skrive

Apr 19, 2024

How to Watch

How to Watch Reds vs. Angels: Live Stream or on TV

Nick Lodolo will take the mound for the Cincinnati Reds (9-9) when they host starter Tyler Anderson and the Los Angeles Angels (9-10) on Friday, with first pitch at 6:40 PM ET.Keep reading to find out how to watch the...

Data Skrive

Apr 19, 2024

NBA Picks

Kings vs. Pelicans Predictions, Best Bets and Odds: NBA Playoffs Game 1 – Friday, April 19, 2024

The Sacramento Kings and the New Orleans Pelicans take the court to start the opening round of the NBA Playoffs. The Kings are favored by 1.5 points in the contest, which airs on TNT at 9:30 PM ET. The over/under...

Data Skrive

Apr 19, 2024

Chicago Blackhawks

Nick Foligno Calls Out Blackhawks Teammates, Says Changes Are Needed

The Blackhawks put the worst regular season of more than 70 games in the history of the franchise to bed on Thursday night in a manner that sums up the season fairly well. Connor Murphy was banged up and Nikita...

Tab Bamford

Apr 19, 2024

NBA Playoffs Odds - Mavs vs. Clippers 1st Round

NBA

2024 NBA Playoffs Odds: Mavs vs Clippers Odds to Win Series, Spreads, Lines

It's a first-round matchup with a history of fireworks! The Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Clippers lock horns once again in the NBA Playoffs. This year marks the third time in five years these two teams meet in the opening...

Brian Twining

Apr 19, 2024

NBA

2024 NBA Playoffs Odds: Pacers vs Bucks Odds to Win Series, Spreads, Lines

The NBA Playoffs are here, and the Eastern Conference first-round ignites with a clash of styles. The Indiana Pacers, boasting the league's top-scoring offense, bring their high-octane attack to Milwaukee to face the experienced Bucks. Giannis Antetokounmpo's status adds further...

Brian Twining

Apr 18, 2024

How to Watch

Pirates vs. Red Sox: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

On Friday, Quinn Priester will start for the Pittsburgh Pirates (11-8) versus Brayan Bello and the Boston Red Sox (10-10), with first pitch scheduled for 6:40 PM ET at PNC Park.The article below will give you everything you need to...

Data Skrive

Apr 18, 2024

The Strike Zone, the Arrieta Adjustments, the Losses, and Other Bullets

Read More

more cubs news

Latest News

more cubs news

Most Popular

Most Popular

Latest News

Most Popular

Most Popular