John Lackey’s First Year with the Cubs – Did They Get Their Money’s Worth? (Very Yes)

john lackey cubs

Last offseason, the Chicago Cubs signed a 37-year-old John Lackey to a two-year, $32 million deal. And despite a solid season for St. Louis the year prior, and a sense that the contract was by no means out of whack with the market, the signing was met with a bit of trepidation from some Cubs fans.

Undoubtedly, some of that concern came from the reputation Lackey carried with him (which has turned out to be a complete non-issue this season), although the majority of it appeared to be age/performance based.

Coming into the 2016 season, Lackey was a 37-year-old righty, three years removed from Tommy John surgery. Moreover, while the results he posted in St. Louis were fantastic (2.77 ERA), the peripherals told a different story (3.57 FIP, 3.77 xFIP). After all, the Cubs couldn’t count on the same voodoo magic the Cardinals sold their collective soul for back in the early 2000s. Right?

But yesterday, Lackey made his 29th and final regular season start of the year and it was another solid, if unspectacular performance. Although his impending playoff starts may ultimately dictate the story of his season, I think it’s important to look back now on the 188.1 innings of work he has already provided the Cubs and see if they got their money’s worth.

[adinserter block=”1″]

First, let’s go over last night’s start.

In short, it was perfectly good final game to close out the season, especially on a team that has already clinched and is just trying to get to the postseason in good shape. When all was said and done, Lackey lasted five full innings, allowing just one earned run on five hits, three walks, and three strikeouts. Although it took Lackey 93 pitches to finish those five innings, he got in plenty of solid prep-work before that. According to Brooks Baseball, Lackey threw five different pitches yesterday (a four-seamer, two-seamer, change-up, slider, and a curveball), and used all but one (the change-up) at least eleven times.

Given his time spent on the DL just before September, the only thing that really mattered for the playoffs was that Lackey could continue to make full, healthy starts while commanding the entirety of his repertoire, upon returning from the DL. He’s now done that (multiple times) and should be expected to perform up to his full abilities come October – the “big boy games,” as Lackey likes to call them.

But when those big boy games get played, the rest of Lackey’s season may be forgotten. The relative importance of the 6-7 innings he throws in, say, Game 4 of the NLDS might outweigh a season’s worth of numbers in either direction. That’s not necessarily fair to Lackey or the fans (and it’s also the reason all of the award voting takes place before the playoffs).

[adinserter block=”2″]

So how has Lackey’s season been? Has he been worth his contract, more or less? Let’s see first where he stacks up against the other qualified starting pitchers throughout baseball.

John Lackey in 2016, By the Numbers (NL, MLB):

  • Innings Pitched: 188.1 (10th, 25th)
  • ERA: 3.35 (13th, 22nd)
  • FIP: 3.81 (15th, 29th)
  • xFIP: 3.80 (14th, 26th)
  • K/BB ratio: 3.40 (14th, 28th)
  • AVG Against: .213 (6th, 8th)
  • fWAR: 3.1 (13th, 27th)
  • So, by just about every important measure, Lackey has roughly been a top-15 pitcher in the National League and a top 30 pitcher in all of baseball – that alone should pretty much tell you all you need to know, but even a simple $/WAR calculation cements the argument.

    In 2016, the Chicago Cubs are paying Lackey $12.5 for the season, plus a $2 million signing bonus (the rest is to be paid in 2017 – $5 million as a bonus, and another $12.5 million in salary). If you use a simple $8 million per win above replacement, the Cubs will have made out quite well in 2016.

    $8 million (per WAR) x 3.1 WAR = $24.8 million value

    Essentially the 2016 Cubs have paid $14.5 million in exchange for $24.8 million in value from Lackey’s performance. While that is nice in it’s own right, it also takes a little bit of pressure of 2017 as well. Lackey need only be worth about one win in 2017 for the contract as a whole to have been worth it. The Cubs did lose a draft pick for signing Lackey, though, so let’s call it two wins.

    [adinserter block=”3″]

    But even though we can see his performance this year has objectively validated his contract, we’d still like to see how it ranks out against his past (but post-Tommy John surgery) seasons and how he/the Cubs feel about it. Well, according to Lackey, it’s been “one of the better ones” of his career. “If you look at things besides wins and losses,” Lackey said after yesterday’s game, “and some of the smaller numbers, it’s probably the best I’ve ever done.”

    Well, let’s do just that.

    John Lackey’s 2016 Stats Ranked 1-4 (2013-2016 Seasons):

  • Innings Pitched: 188.1 (4th)
  • ERA: 3.35 (2nd)
  • FIP: 3.81 (3rd)
  • xFIP: 3.80 (4th)
  • Ground Ball Rate: 41% (4th)
  • Strikeout Rate: 24.1% (1st)
  • Walk Rate: 7.1% (4th)
  • K/BB ratio: 3.40 (3rd)
  • AVG Against: .213 (1st)
  • Hard-Hit Rate: 34.4% (4th)
  • Soft-Hit Rate: 16.2% (1st)
  • fWAR: 3.1 (2nd)
  • There’s not much of a definitive conclusion to draw from this, other than what we’ve already come to accept: yeah, it was a pretty good season overall and definitely worth the money. Lackey was better than his former-self in many ways (ERA, K rate, AVG against, Soft-hit rate, fWAR), but not in many others (IP, xFIP, GB rate, Hard-hit rate).

    What that means, however, is that Lackey was exactly the guy the Cubs thought they were getting. Sure he made some improvements here and took some hits there, but overall he’s the pitcher he has been for (now) four straight years. And that’s a good thing!

    If he can add a couple of strong starts in the playoffs, too, well, he might just have been the steal of the offseason.

    [adinserter block=”4″]

    written by

    Michael Cerami began covering the Chicago Cubs for Bleacher Nation as a part-time contributor in 2015. One year later, he joined Bleacher Nation full-time, covering the Chicago Cubs and Major League Baseball. Today, Michael runs Bleacher Nation, contributing as a writer (Cubs, MLB) and an editor for all sections of the site, including the Chicago Bears, Bulls, and Blackhawks, as well as MLB, NBA, NHL, and NFL. In 2019, Michael was the co-host of NBC Sports Chicago's Cubs Post-Game Show Outside the Ivy. You can find him on Twitter/X @Michael_Cerami

    more cubs news

    Wrigley Field is Gonna Be Lit This Year (As in New Colored Lights!)

    Last year, the Cubs started using their new LED outfield lights to do a little dancing display during 'Go Cubs Go,' lighting along with the song and throwing in a W. It was very fun and I liked it. This...

    The 2024 Chicago Cubs for Dummies

    Boom. We made it. The offseason is over, and the Cubs regular season - and those elevated expectations - begins tomorrow. But in case you slept through the winter, I'm here to catch you up on everything you need to...

    Why Craig Counsell Wanted Miles Mastrobuoni on the Cubs’ Bench

    I don't know why Miles Mastrobuoni bugs some folks, but it's probably heavily-weighted toward his small-sample, bad-batted-ball-luck start last year, and that time he didn't dive while playing in right field. It can be hard to shake initial impressions, I...

    Kinda Sounds Like Craig Counsell May Have a Set Top Three in the Batting Order

    New Chicago Cubs manager Craig Counsell has said, generally, his batting order philosophy is the very simplistic (and very correct): just get your best hitters the most at bats. Sure, there's some play in that to set up good match-ups,...

    Los Angeles Dodgers Signing Will Smith to a TEN-YEAR Extension

    The Los Angeles Dodgers have done it again. And by it, I mean they have signed a funkily-structured contract that is going to leave some folks annoyed. The Dodgers are extending catcher Will Smith on a DECADE-long deal with a...

    The Stretch: 2024 MLB Season Preview

    On Monday, during a team-building conversation with some of the Bleacher Nation and Betsperts Media Group folks, we discussed sports—shocking, I know—and Brian Twining asked the group what their favorite sport was. For me, it's baseball. There's no debate. I...

    We Have to Talk About Some of the “Deals” the Cubs Sat Out in Free Agency

    This week, in a conversation with Jon Greenberg at The Athletic, Cubs President Jed Hoyer made an honest and sober (but also moderately disappointing) admission about the 2024 Chicago Cubs: "We need to perform probably at or a little bit...

    The Chicago Cubs Are Reportedly Now Worth Over $5 Billion

    Given all the tumult in the baseball broadcasting world, and the uncertain future for that portion of revenues, you'd be forgiven for expecting that MLB franchise valuations would slow their recent surge. But, according to Sportico at least, you'd be...

    Reds Second Baseman Matt McLain Had Shoulder Surgery

    The injury to Matt McLain's shoulder issue obviously wound up being worse than he and the Cincinnati Reds had been hoping. The damage to his left (non-throwing) labrum ultimately required surgery: https://twitter.com/m_sheldon/status/1772993402604339478 When the hope is that a guy can...

    Cubs Actually Getting a Whole Lot of Votes to Win the NL Central

    ESPN dropped its big season preview, and included were a set of divisional predictions by way of their writers, editors, and analysts voting. There's nothing in the way of proof or certainty there, but with 26 voters, I do like...

    Latest News

    Pac-12 Basketball Predictions, Computer Picks and Best Bets | March 28

    There is one game featuring a Pac-12 teams on the Thursday postseason college basketball schedule, the Clemson Tigers versus the Arizona Wildcats. Make sure you check out below for today's best bets!How to Bet on Pac-12 Games[lasso rel="draftkings-promo-1" id="299003"]Best Pac-12...

    Rays vs. Blue Jays Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

    The Tampa Bay Rays look to start their season with a win as home favorites (-135) in a season-opening matchup with the Toronto Blue Jays. First pitch is on Thursday at 4:10 PM ET on MLB Network, live from Tropicana...

    Astros vs. Yankees Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

    The Houston Astros look to start their season with a win as home favorites (-156) in a season-opening matchup with the New York Yankees. First pitch is on Thursday at 4:10 PM ET on YES, live from Minute Maid Park.Houston's...

    Tigers vs. White Sox Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

    The Detroit Tigers begin their season as -181 favorites in a road tilt against the Chicago White Sox on Thursday at 4:10 PM ET, live on BSDET.Tarik Skubal starts for Detroit while Garrett Crochet is Chicago's starter for the contest.Tigers...

    Reds vs. Nationals Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

    The Cincinnati Reds begin their season as -154 favorites in a home tilt against the Washington Nationals on Thursday at 4:10 PM ET, live on MASN2.Cincinnati's Frankie Montas gets the start, and he'll go against Washington's Josiah Gray.Reds vs. Nationals...

    Dodgers vs. Cardinals Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

    The Los Angeles Dodgers (1-1) will look to Will Smith, red hot after a four-hit game, to lead them in a matchup with the St. Louis Cardinals (0-0) on Thursday at 4:10 PM ET on BSMW. The Dodgers are -232...

    Marlins vs. Pirates Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

    The Miami Marlins look to start their season with a win as home favorites (-133) in a season-opening matchup with the Pittsburgh Pirates. First pitch is on Thursday at 4:10 PM ET on Sportsnet PT, live from LoanDepot park.Miami's Jesus...

    Padres vs. Giants Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

    The San Francisco Giants (0-0) are the underdogs on the moneyline (-106) in Thursday's contest against the San Diego Padres (1-1). Game time is set for 4:10 PM ET on NBCS-BA. The Giants are favored against the spread in this...

    Twins vs. Royals Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

    The Minnesota Twins look to start their season with a win as road favorites (-122) in a season-opening matchup with the Kansas City Royals. First pitch is on Thursday at 4:10 PM ET on BSN, live from Kauffman Stadium.Pablo Lopez...

    Orioles vs. Angels Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

    The Baltimore Orioles are moneyline favorites (-192) to begin their season with a home win over the Los Angeles Angels on Thursday at 3:05 PM ET, live on BSW.Baltimore's Corbin Burnes and Los Angeles' Patrick Sandoval have been named the...

    more cubs news