I think I’m getting to the point where I’m more excited about writing these than you guys are about reading them. But who doesn’t love a good MLB rumor mill session?
After all, baseball rumors are hope, they’re the future. They do a good job of bringing our true projections and desires to the surface, by way of excitement or disappointment after any new bit of information. “Sources say,” has quickly become the one phrase we scroll tirelessly through out Twitter feeds to find.
Rumors get you thinking about next season, scratching out new lineups, aligning the rotation, and preparing new ways to get mad at Joe Maddon for how he uses his bullpen (and then love him again for how he rotates his position players). Rumors are the best, and, outside of July, we’re entering into the best 2.5 months of rumors all year long.
[adinserter block=”1″]
At the Chicago Tribune (though you have to swim past all of the election tweet stuff), Paul Sullivan discusses Jake Arrieta’s future with the Chicago Cubs and the prospect of an extension. Theo Epstein is expecting to talk to Arrieta’s agent Scott Boras at some point over the winter, where the topic of an extension will likely be brought up. But to be certain, the waters have probably gotten even muddier than they were before Spring Training 2016. Had Arrieta completed another perfectly dominant season in 2016 (like 2014 and 2015), the Cubs might have been more willing to give him the money he’s probably seeking. But because he had a bit of an up and down year and is just one year away from free agency, I’m guessing Arrieta will want to reestablish himself as a true top of the rotation pitcher in order to seek out a contract in excess of $175 million or more (just an example).
For the Cubs, then, the most likely scenario is that he plays out his 2017 contract in Chicago and signs elsewhere after the season. Sullivan did ask Epstein if he’d consider dealing Arrieta, but Epstein said it hasn’t crossed his mind (duh), because the Cubs 1) are still very much planning on competing in 2017 and 2) Arrieta has inarguably become a huge part of their rotation. I suppose if the Cubs somehow manage to be below .500 by the All-Star break, Arrieta would be a great trade chip, but if that happens with this roster … yeesh.
Although the current free agent class doesn’t have a lot to boast about, there are a trio of legit closers available for only money, and that’s not extremely common. You’re familiar with the names: Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, and Mark Melancon. Although the Cubs would likely be interested in one of the three, Chapman (and probably Jansen) has reportedly been seeking a deal in the $100 million range, which, wow. I won’t say that they’re not worth that kind of money (although they probably aren’t), but I will say that it seems we are on the precipice of another fundamental shift in reliever valuation. The 2016 postseason – featuring guys like Chapman, Jansen, and Andrew Miller – probably had a lot to do with that. Perhaps, the competition between those three, and the effect they’ll have on the trade market, will work to lower the their relative cost. If you recall last offseason, a few cost controlled starters throughout the league were unexpectedly made available, when their teams saw how other teams were valuing similar players in free agency.
[adinserter block=”2″]
That said, even if the Cubs do hope to work on their bullpen over the offseason (they will), their course of action may not be free agency or trade. Instead, they may look into their own system to see if they can develop the next Jansen or Miller of their own. At CSN, GM Jed Hoyer notes that the Cubs will explore every avenue, as they always do, but admits that closers come from all over and tend to be guys with “bumps along the road,” who established themselves later. That’s certainly true of Jansen (a former catcher), Miller and Chapman (converted starters), and even Hector Rondon (converted started, whom the Cubs selected in the Rule 5 draft). Indeed, consider the former-starter, turned dominant reliever in the Cubs organization already: Carl Edwards Jr. In his rookie season, Edwards turned in a 37.7% strikeout rate and a 2.87 FIP (2.40 xFIP). He’s likely be to a significant late-game option for Maddon for the next several years.
Back to the trio of closers. Aroldis Chapman, despite (in my opinion) being a less attractive option than Kenley Jansen, has been the belle of the ball so far this offseason, seemingly becoming the top target of the Yankees (which we already knew) and now the Dodgers. The Dodgers, you’ll recall, had a trade for Chapman in place just before the news of his domestic violence incident broke last offseason, but Andy McCullough is hearing that the Dodgers are expecting to make a “dedicated pursuit,” of Chapman this winter. Ah … to be wanted by the Yankees and the Dodgers. Chapman might get $1 billion.
I won’t claim to know enough about the White Sox to say duh, but DUH: GM Rick Hahn Hints that Rebuild Could be on Horizon for White Sox. After the Sox’s fourth straight losing season (seven of their last ten), Hahn is admitting that they may need to let off the gas, and readjust for the future (CSN): “I think we’re veering away from the standpoint of looking for stopgaps. A lot of what we did in the last few years had been trying to enhance the short-term potential of the club to put ourselves in a position to win immediately. I feel the approach at this point is focusing on longer-term benefits.”
Listen, I don’t want to be a soapboxing Cubs fan, but I’ll just say I’m glad the Cubs front office is who they are, and ownership is who they are, and were all capable of taking a sober look at the organization as soon as possible. The White Sox, had they done the same three years ago, would be in a better position for 2017. As it is, they are not.
[adinserter block=”3″]
But to that end, they might be in a great position to reload A TON in one offseason. With an almost completely barren free agent starters market (we’ll get to that in a second), the Sox have not one, but two wonderfully valuable trade chips in Chris Sale and Jose Quintana. Sale, 27, has averaged 5.2 fWAR over the past five seasons, while Quintana, also 27, continues to be one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball (he averaged 4.6 fWAR over the past four seasons). Sale is under cheap control until 2019 and Quintana is under cheap control until 2020 (in addition, the last two years for both contracts are team options, enhancing the value of their contracts even further). In a market devoid of options, these two pitchers will cost an arm and a leg (and then the rest of your body, too).
For what it’s worth, right-handed closer Dave Robertson might also be made available. In a market where Chapman might receive $100 million, the $25 million and two years left on Robertson’s deal might be considered reasonable.
If you’re unfamiliar with Shohei Otani, familiarize yourself now. In short, Otani is one of the very best pitchers AND hitters in the Japanese Pacific League. In a truly unique combination of talents, Otani, 22, has developed into a dominant starter and one of the best overall hitters in Japan. Unfortunately, he is not expected to hit the U.S. until next season at the earliest, but from there, many are suggesting he might receive upwards of $300 million.
Obviously, when the numbers get that high, only a handful of teams are realistically going to be involved. At the NY Post, Joel Sherman names the Yankees (who have the contacts of Alex Rodriguez and CC Sabathia coming off the books), the Cubs (who pursued Masahiro Tanaka and have Jake Arrieta and John Lackey coming off the books), the Dodgers (where the books don’t matter), and the Angels (who will finally shed themselves of the Josh Hamilton deal). The most exciting part about Otani, though, is that people genuinely don’t know if he would come over to pitch, hit, or both. DH-ing in the American League can be an option, or hitting in the National League as a pitcher might be interesting too. He will be definitely be one of the most exciting players in a long time.
The Braves have signed 42-year-old knuckleballer R.A. Dickey to a one-year (and one option year) deal. Dickey broke out in his mid-30s with the Mets, and was ultimately traded to the Blue Jays for a massive haul (which included Noah Syndergaard), and was never the same.
[adinserter block=”4″]
Although there aren’t a ton (or maybe any) sure-fire, young starters available in free agency, one guy, Jeremy Hellickson does stand out. In 2016, Hellickson had the best season of his career (3.2 fWAR), but doesn’t have much of a track record of success prior to that (save for some dubious “good results” years when he was much younger). In fact, many have even suggested that accepting the $17.2 million qualifying offer from the Phillies might be his best bet (although rumors suggest he’ll be rejecting it). That said, at just 29 years old, Hellickson might one of the only guys who can reasonably command and produce over a slightly longer deal. He isn’t much of a strikeout pitcher, but he keeps the walks under control, and he posted his highest soft-hit rate and lowest hard-hit rate in 2016, so maybe there’s something there to like. My guess is that we’ll hear a bit more about Hellickson in the near future. We’ll save a deeper analysis for then.
And finally, this could be fun:
#Astros will pursue Miguel Cabrera or Edwin Encarnacion. Payroll increase is coming. They have only two players signed beyond 2017. @MLB
Michael Cerami began covering the Chicago Cubs for Bleacher Nation as a part-time contributor in 2015. One year later, he joined Bleacher Nation full-time, covering the Chicago Cubs and Major League Baseball. Today, Michael runs Bleacher Nation, contributing as a writer (Cubs, MLB) and an editor for all sections of the site, including the Chicago Bears, Bulls, and Blackhawks, as well as MLB, NBA, NHL, and NFL.
In 2019, Michael was the co-host of NBC Sports Chicago's Cubs Post-Game Show Outside the Ivy.
You can find him on Twitter/X @Michael_Cerami
This afternoon's forecast in Chicago calls for afternoon rainstorms, which means I need to tweak my schedule to get my regularly scheduled walk in without getting soaked. Wish me luck! The Chicago Bears are reportedly set to announce lakefront stadium...
Cubs vs Astros — Splitting a four-gamer against the current, badly-struggling Miami Marlins is unquestionably a bad outcome, especially when one of those two losses was a win-in-hand that slipped away into the seats. But the typical, and maddeningly correct,...
I was literally in the middle of an article asking "What Are the Cubs Going to Do with Matt Mervis," when this news came across the wire. The Cubs first base picture is fully settled with the left-handed Michael Busch...
It's going to be a really good year for Horror movies. Late Night with the Devil was good (just saw it the other night). And I've got my eyes on Long Legs, Cuckoo, The First Omen, Immaculate, MaXXXine, In a...
A couple injuries to note among other NL Central contenders, as each of the Brewers and Reds have taken a hit to their rotation. The presumption for now is short-term on each, but I suppose we'll see. First, you have...
A very scary scene in Pittsburgh, where Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Jakob Junis, currently on the IL with a shoulder impingement, took a batting practice ball off the neck and went down. Junis was apparently on the ground for a long...
On April 9, I took an early look at Nico Hoerner's apparently evolving approach at the plate, which featured a lot more patience and a lot more big hacks. Effectively, it seemed like he was trying for a little more...
There's been much debate about pitcher arm injuries lately, much of it sparked by Spencer Strider's season-ending Tommy John surgery, and Strider spoke to the media for the first time since the injury on Friday. Spencer Strider on pitcher arm...
A new signing popped up on the Chicago Cubs' transaction log: lefty Mitchell Tyranski. Tyranski, 26, put up a 3.83 ERA over 42.1 innings at High-A last year in the Dodgers organization, striking out 47 and walking 21. Were you...
We already dove deep into Shota Imanaga's latest impressive start against the Marlins yesterday. And there's been no shortage of love for Michael Busch this season either. But I do want to take this time to illustrate just how good...
The San Diego Padres (13-12) are set to take on the Colorado Rockies (5-18) Tuesday at 8:40 PM ET, airing on COLR. The Padres are listed as -154 favorites by sportsbooks, while the underdog Rockies have +130 odds for the...
After winning three games in a row, the Baltimore Orioles (15-7) play on the road against the Los Angeles Angels (9-14) at 9:38 PM ET on Tuesday.The probable pitchers are Grayson Rodriguez (3-0) for the Orioles and Griffin Canning (0-3)...
The New York Mets (12-10) go on the road at Oracle Park against the San Francisco Giants (11-13) at 9:45 PM ET on Tuesday.The Giants will give the ball to Logan Webb (2-1, 2.93 ERA), who is eyeing win No....
The Los Angeles Lakers are slight 1-point underdogs in Game 3 of the opening round of the NBA Playoffs against the Denver Nuggets at Crypto.com Arena on Thursday, tipping off at 10:00 PM ET on TNT. The Nuggets are ahead...
The St. Louis Cardinals will take the field against the Arizona Diamondbacks (11-13) on Tuesday. The game begins at 7:45 PM ET on ARID, with the Cardinals listed as -135 favorites on the moneyline.Steven Matz takes the mound for St....
The Seattle Mariners (11-11) are favorites (-114) on the moneyline when they square off against the Texas Rangers (12-11) Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET, live on BSSW.Seattle's Logan Gilbert and Texas' Dane Dunning have been named the starters for this...
Expect the long ball when Daulton Varsho (6 HR) and the Toronto Blue Jays (13-10) take on Salvador Perez (6 HR) and the Kansas City Royals (13-10) at Kauffman Stadium, beginning at 7:40 PM ET live on BSKC. The Blue...
The Chicago White Sox (3-19) will try to end their four-game losing streak when they visit the Minnesota Twins (8-13) on Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET on NBCS-CHI. Sportsbooks consider the Twins to be -278 favorites for the contest, while...
The Chicago Cubs (13-9) enter Tuesday's matchup with the Houston Astros (7-16) following their 2-2 series tie with the Marlins. The Astros, coming off of a series loss against the Nationals, are listed as -116 favorites for Game 1. The...
Anthony Edwards' Minnesota Timberwolves meet the Phoenix Suns on Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET in Game 2 of the opening round of the NBA playoffs, and to beat his 3-point over/under, he must make three from downtown.Anthony Edwards' Three-Pointer Prop...
NEWSLETTER
