Intriguing Former Closers and Other Buy-Low, High-Leverage Types on the Market

fernando rodney cubsAroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon are about to set a new standard for paydays for free agent closers, but it doesn’t mean they’re the only examples of relief help available this offseason.

The rest of the reliever market is littered with pitchers who are familiar with dealing with high-leverage situations and several who have been primary closers for previous teams. Those hurlers won’t get as much attention (or salary) as the big three at the top of the market, but it doesn’t mean those arms aren’t without value.

With Chapman, Travis Wood and Joe Smith hitting free agency, coupled with the fact that Hector Rondon and Pedro Strop have been among the most used relievers over the last few years (and dealt with injury issues at the end of 2016), Joe Maddon’s bullpen will need (and receive) some offseason tweaking.

[adinserter block=”1″]

No Cubs reliever has faced more batters in high-leverage situations since 2014 than Rondon. The 272 batters he has faced in those spots are 14th most among qualifying relievers and the 70.2 high-leverage innings is the 10th most. Meanwhile, Strop’s 176.1 innings pitched since 2014 puts him among the 50 most-used relievers in the last three years.

Help is on the way in the form of both internal and external options, though.

For the sake of this exercise, here is a look at some external arms that might go undervalued this offseason, and could plausibly fit into the Cubs’ bullpen, at least as added depth with late-inning experience.

Koji Uehara: He will be 42 in 2017, but Uehara still has an effective split-finger offering that serves as the kind of wipeout pitch a reliable high-leverage arm needs. Uehara has thrown it at a 49.6 percent rate since 2013 and according to BrooksBaseball.net, it has received whiffs on 25.3 percent of the 1,771 offerings. However, the number of whiffs has dropped in each of the last three years, peaking at 163 in 2013 and bottoming out at 77 in 2016. 

[adinserter block=”2″]

Fernando Rodney: The changeup is as good as it has ever been for the former Cubs reliever and it has been the third most valuable among relievers since 2015 by FanGraphs‘ Pitch Value measure. He even saw an increase of 4.3 percentage points in whiff rate last year. Rodney will pitch in his age 40 season in 2017, so there is risk in age-related decline, despite a 26.2 percent strikeout rate in 2016. Still, walks (13.1 BB%) are a major issue, and he struggled in the second half.

Brad Ziegler: Only Trevor Rosenthal, Mark Melancon, and Fernando Rodney have faced more batters than Ziegler (407) in high-leverage situations since the start 2013, and opponents are slugging .318 in those spots. He picked up 62 saves for the Diamondbacks between 2014 and 2016, when he was dealt to the Red Sox. While he is no stranger to recording big outs, the groundballer doesn’t get many strikeouts (despite posting a career best 20.1 K% in 2016). He also posted his highest walk rate this past season (9.0 BB%) since 2010.

Shawn Tolleson: Emerging from the Rangers bullpen to save 35 games in 2015, Tolleson took a step back in 2016 and finds himself on the free agent market. He owned a 25.5 K% and 5.5 BB% when things went well in 2015, but opponents owned a .372 BABIP and he posted a 5.24 FIP in 2016. There is a buy low feel to Tolleson, whose LOB% dipped from 82.9 percent in 2015 to 59.9 percent a year later. The fall to a 17.3 K% could be a red flag, though.

[adinserter block=”3″]

Drew Storen: An up-and-down career makes him a risky investment and a borderline reclamation project at this stage of his career, but an intriguing one at that. The former Nationals closer is coming off a year in which he posted a career-worst 5.23 ERA and 4.21 FIP with the Blue Jays and Mariners. Further, he owned a 21.1 K% that was 8.3 percentage points lower than what he put up in 2015. Since 2010, Storen has faced 448 batters in high leverage situations, limiting them to a .187 average, .271 slugging percentage and .244 wOBA.

Neftali Feliz: Everyone knows about Aroldis Chapman’s fastball velocity, but Neftali Feliz’s four-seamer, which averages 96 mph, is the second hardest among free agent relievers. Feliz is five years removed from his last 30-save season, but he struck out 28 percent of the batters he faced as a member of the Pirates in 2016. He received career-best whiff percentages with his four-seamer (15.4%) and slider (20%), according to BrooksBaseball.net, and will only be 29 in 2017. There still could be some mileage left in that arm.

If you missed it yesterday, Michael wrote about one of the bigger names on the market in Kenley Jansen.

written by

Luis C. Medina, who you can find on Twitter at lcm1986, has been covering the Chicago Bears at Bleacher Nation since 2017. Since then, he has written about 3 head coaches, 5 play-callers, and 11 starting quarterbacks. Previously, Luis wrote about the Cubs and MLB at BN (2015-16) and worked in the Chicago Tribune sports department (2011-16). He also co-hosted a Cubs postgame show, Outside the Ivy, in 2019.

more cubs news

Justin Steele Injury Update: New Classification, MRI Tomorrow, IL Stint Coming? Steele and Counsell Speak

A significant update on Justin Steele came from Craig Counsell tonight after the Cubs extra innings loss in Texas. In short: Yes, a stint on the Injured List is likely for Justin Steele. But we still don't know how severe...

Enhanced Box Score: Rangers 4, Cubs 3 – March 28, 2024

It took exactly one day for the Cubs' ace to sustain what may be a significant injury, for their closer to blow a save, for the umpires to significantly impact the outcome of a critical play (this time in the...

OMG: Michael Busch Scored the 9th Inning, GO-AHEAD Run, Because He Just Never Stopped Running

That was absolutely incredible. To all the little kids out there, when your coach tells you to never stop running, this is why. Rookie Cubs 1B Michael Busch (the guy the Cubs got from the Dodgers this offseason to be...

Pre-Gamin’: Cubs at Rangers – Lineups, Pitching Matchup, Broadcast Info, Game Thread

*SHORT COURTS: It's Time To Bring The Home Court, Home! Looking for a unique way to celebrate your athlete or team before you peruse the FIRST CHICAGO CUBS LINEUP of the Year? Don't miss out! For just one more week...

The Cubs Are Among the Most Returning-y Teams

I am still mostly incapacitated at the moment, so apologies for the short shrift on such an otherwise blessed day. In between pokes and prods, I wanted to share a chart I saw that was pretty interesting, even if unsurprising:...

Maybe the Cubs Are the Favorites in the NL Central, After All?

ESPN was the first to throw some love the Cubs way this week, with an overwhelming majority of their writers, analysts, and editors picking the Chicago Cubs to win the NL Central in 2024. But the love doesn't end there....

The Season Begins, Love for Morel, Counsell’s Value, and Other Cubs Bullets

You know where you want to spend your Opening Day morning? The hospital! Suffice to say, this is not how I imagined getting HYPED for the Cubs' opener. I guess I'll just have to think about all the possible lineup...

Cubs vs Rangers: The First Series of the Year!

Cubs vs Rangers — THE REGULAR SEASON IS HERE! Wake up and rejoice. Later tonight, the Cubs will begin their march toward October Baseball against the (reigning World Series champion) Texas Rangers in Arlington. Justin Steele is getting the nod...

The 2024 Chicago Cubs for Dummies

Boom. We made it. The offseason is over, and the Cubs regular season - and those elevated expectations - begins tomorrow. But in case you slept through the winter, I'm here to catch you up on everything you need to...

I’m Expecting More This Year, Cubs — It’s Time to Start Winning

There's no way around it: The Chicago Cubs did *not* have the offseason we hoped they might after making Craig Counsell the highest paid manager in MLB history. Not that they did poorly, mind you. Cody Bellinger, Shota Imanaga, and...

Latest News

Washington State vs. Illinois Women’s Basketball: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

Two hot teams meet when the Washington State Cougars (21-14) host the Illinois Fighting Illini (17-15) on April 1, 2024. The Cougars will put their three-game win streak on the line against the Fighting Illini, who have won three straight.On...

Villanova vs. Penn State Women’s Basketball: Free Live Stream, TV Channel, How to Watch

The Villanova Wildcats (21-12) will try to extend a three-game winning streak when they host the Penn State Lady Lions (22-12) on April 1, 2024. The Lady Lions have also won three games in a row.In its previous game, Villanova...

Brewers vs. Mets Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Milwaukee Brewers are moneyline favorites (-110) to begin their season with a road win over the New York Mets on Friday at 1:40 PM ET, live on SNY.Freddy Peralta takes the mound for Milwaukee while Jose Quintana is New...

Braves vs. Phillies Probable Starting Pitchers – March 29

The Philadelphia Phillies (0-0) host the Atlanta Braves (0-0) in an Opening Day game at 3:05 PM ET on Friday.The Braves will look to Spencer Strider against the Phillies and Zack Wheeler.Braves vs. Phillies Pitcher Matchup and Game InfoWhen: Friday,...

Suns vs. Thunder Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets – Friday, March 29, 2024

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder (50-22) are 2.5-point underdogs against Kevin Durant and the Phoenix Suns (43-30) Friday, March 29, 2024 at Paycom Center. The game starts at 8:00 PM ET on KSBI. The matchup's point total is...

Brewers vs. Mets Probable Starting Pitchers – March 29

The Milwaukee Brewers (0-0) begin their 2024 season with a road matchup against the New York Mets (0-0) on Friday, with first pitch at 1:40 PM ET.The Brewers will give the nod to Freddy Peralta versus the Mets and Jose...

Cavaliers vs. 76ers Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Philadelphia 76ers (39-34) are 8-point underdogs against the Cleveland Cavaliers (44-29) at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse on Friday, March 29, 2024. The game starts at 7:30 PM ET on NBCS. The matchup's point total is set at 212.5.Our computer predictions...

Heat vs. Trail Blazers Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Portland Trail Blazers (19-54) will attempt to end an eight-game losing streak when they visit the Miami Heat (39-33) on Friday, March 29, 2024 at FTX Arena as heavy, 14-point underdogs. The contest airs at 8:00 PM ET on...

Rockets vs. Jazz Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Utah Jazz (29-44) will try to end a seven-game losing streak when they host the Houston Rockets (37-35) on Friday, March 29, 2024 at Vivint Smart Home Arena as 7.5-point underdogs. The contest airs at 9:30 PM ET on...

Bulls vs. Nets Predictions, Best Bets and Odds – Friday, March 29, 2024

The Chicago Bulls (35-38) hit the court against the Brooklyn Nets (28-45) as 5.5-point favorites on Friday, March 29, 2024 at 7:30 PM ET on NBCS. The matchup has an over/under set at 214.5 points.Before you place an informed wager...

more cubs news