An Early Look at Early 2017 Cubs Projections Shows Early Good Things and Other Bullets

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An Early Look at Early 2017 Cubs Projections Shows Early Good Things and Other Bullets

Chicago Cubs

kyle-schwarber-cubs-swingWelcome back, friends. Good holiday weekend?

This could be a big week, with the CBA expiring on Thursday and the non-tender deadline on Friday. Stay tuned …

  • We’ll have a full post on it, but I wanted to get the link in front of you right now, since it just came out this morning: the Cubs’ ZiPS projections for 2017. There are so many things to discuss that I won’t get lost in the weeds in the Bullets here, but a few early side-note-type things that jump out at me:
    • (1) ZiPS pegs Albert Almora Jr. at a .269/.296/.393 line, which does seem fair when you consider the skill set, the youth, and the big league adjustment (I think a slightly higher batting average is reasonable, but otherwise, it’s fair);
    • (2) ZiPS projects a 30.6% K rate for Kyle Schwarber, which is surprising to me, given that he was at just 28.2% as a rookie and was generally a lower K rate guy in the minors – will he strike out more than average? Probably, but over 30% would surprise me (his overall production is still projection as strong, despite the K rate);
    • (3) Both Jason Heyward and Javy Baez project to be just a shade below league average with the bat, which would leave them very valuable players, given their baserunning and defense;
    • (4) ZiPS thinks outfield prospect Mark Zagunis could be a near big-league-average bat right now (though he’s likely not able to play center field, which means he’d need to be better than a league-average bat to impact the Cubs in the near term);
    • (5) ZiPS pegs Felix Pena to be nearly as good as Carl Edwards Jr. next year; and
    • (6) ZiPS thinks Mike Montgomery is a league average pitcher, but all of Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks, and John Lackey project to be worth more than 3.0 WAR.

  • The Bears, however, did not win for the trophy, which means:

  • There was a time not so long ago that Cyber Monday made sense. After a weekend of sales at physical stores, retailers wanted a way to sell off excess inventory and also push their online presence. I used to be all about it – I got up bright and early on Black Friday morning, and made an event of it. Probably did that for ten years. But with the increasing shift to online in all phases, I haven’t done physical shopping on Black Friday in five years, which makes Cyber Monday just feel like another day of sales – often extending the same deals that were available a few days ago.
  • … which is not to say it’s a bad thing. Amazon’s got a ton of Cyber Monday deals that you can check out here. Picking a random one: a 170-piece tool set is 64% off.
  • If you still need official Cubs gear (who doesn’t?), the Fanatics Cyber Monday sale is huge:

  • And one last pimp, as this deal ends TODAY. So if you’re on the fence about getting a new BN shirt, today’s the day to jump on it:

Author: Brett Taylor

Brett Taylor is the Editor and Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and @Brett_A_Taylor.