Winning Championships With Outfield Defense; Can Cubs Do It Again With a Different Group?

The Kansas City Royals became trendsetters, after winning the American League pennant in 2014 and the World Series in 2015.

For some examples, look no further than the recent construction of bullpens and focus on baserunners causing havoc on the base paths.

But you know that old adage that defense wins championships? Well at the Hardball Times, Casey Boguslaw wrote about how the Royals applied it in 2015, one year before the Cubs adopted it – and, of course, both teams won the World Series.

More specifically, Boguslaw focused on the Royals’ (and Cubs’) outfield defense.

Kansas City went from winning 86 games in 2013 and 89 games in the pennant-winning year of 2014 to 95 games when the team won the World Series in 2015. During that three-year stretch, the Royals had an OPS+ and wRC+ of 89, 92 and 98, respectively. Kansas City’s FIP ranked also ranked between 14th and 16th during that three year stretch, while the team’s ERA somehow managed to wind up among the four best in baseball.

[adinserter block=”1″]

So how did the Royals make up for average offensive output and the sort of pitching numbers that strongly implied impending ERA regression? With elite outfield defense, of course.

You probably remember the names: Lorenzo Cain and Alex Gordon led the way, with help from Jarrod Dyson, Nori Aoki, David Lough, Alex Rios, and Paolo Orlando.

From 2013-15, Cain had the second best UZR (51.7) and Defensive Runs Saved (63) in baseball behind only Jason Heyward. Alex Gordon wasn’t too far behind, ranking fourth in UZR (40.4) and DRS (50).

Gordon made the third highest percentage of 10-40% plays (as charted by Inside Edge Fielding) while Cain ranked 11th. (That Heyward fellow ranked first in this category, too.) On 40-60% plays, both Cain (9th) and Gordon (28th) ranked among baseball’s 30 best outfielders. Gordon was the best at getting to 1-10% plays, while Gordon ranked 13th in that category. Heyward ranked only 15th in this particular category.

[adinserter block=”2″]

After seeing what the Royals did defensively in 2015 (and how the Cubs could be improved in that particular area), Theo Epstein signed Heyward to the largest contract in Cubs history. Offensively, Heyward suffered through the worst season of his career. But defensively, he provided the Cubs with the kind of impact defense that helped neutralize opposing offenses.

Of course, the Cubs were fortunate to add Dexter Fowler back into the mix for 2016, in what turned out to be his best defensive season. They also improved defensively with the unfortunate injury to Kyle Schwarber in April – which forced the Cubs into being more flexible with positioning, and better for it (again, speaking defensively).

It all added up to the Cubs posting baseball’s best outfield UZR (40.5) – which also turned out to be the sixth best of the last decade. They saw gains in making the 10-40% plays (33.3%, 9th in MLB) and 40-60% play (78.6%, 1st) after ranking 24th (21.9%) and fifth (60.0%) the year prior. Turning hits into outs at a 10 percentage-point clip or better is one way to suppress opposing offenses.

The challenge for the 2017 Cubs is to replicate that kind of defensive showing … but with Schwarber as a mainstay in left field, and without Fowler, who left for St. Louis.

While the Jon Jay-Albert Almora Jr. tandem will be hard-pressed to re-create Fowler’s offensive production from 2016, they could very well provide significant improvement defensively. Jay’s -8 DRS from 2012-16 won’t inspire much optimism, but his 4.0 UZR ranks fifth among the 12 center fielders who logged at least 4,000 defensive innings during that five-year span. Perhaps playing next to Heyward helps those numbers, too (remember how much range he showed in 2016), and bumps Jay’s play on 60-90% plays (75.9%, 9th of 12) – because he was average on 10-40% plays (30.0%, 6th of 12) and pretty good on 40-60% plays (69.2%, 2nd of 12).

[adinserter block=”3″]

Where Jay thrives defensively is making the routine plays, making 99.6% of 90-100% plays.

Almora Jr. doesn’t have much of a sample size, but does come with elite-defense-level scouting reports, and does have some highlight-reel catches in limited action (including one just three batters after his debut):

Your browser does not support iframes.

Your browser does not support iframes.

Your browser does not support iframes.

He doesn’t have much experience at the Major League level, but Almora Jr. played 193 defensive innings in center – making 98.2 percent of the 90-100% plays. And in the 237 defensive innings he played in total in the outfield, he actually made all of the 10-40%, 40-60% plays and 60-90% plays.

[adinserter block=”4″]

It’s impossible to extrapolate those numbers over a full season, but it’s worth noting for future reference.

Left field is where hard questions will be asked – and eventually answered. For starters, who is getting the bulk of the action?

Don’t expect Kyle Schwarber to play every inning of every game in left field. In 2016, 12 different players logged at least one defensive inning in left field – including pitchers Pedro Strop and Travis Wood. Jorge Soler (371 innings) played left the most often, but only played 13 complete games in left. That leaves Kris Bryant (353.1 innings) as the most experienced left fielder from the 2016 Cubs, as he was one of six who played at least 100 defensive innings at the position.

Because of the mixing and matching manager Joe Maddon will have to do on the infield with Javier Baez (who played 2.1 innings in left last year) and Ben Zobrist (127.2 innings), and possibly behind the plate (Willson Contreras played 180.2 innings in left), it wouldn’t be surprising to see some sort of timeshare situation in left field.

If the Cubs want to build another championship-caliber defense in 2017, they’ll have a lot of work to do – but also have plenty of pieces to work with.

For much more on the importance and impact of outfield defense, be sure to read Boguslaw’s piece at The Hardball Times.

[adinserter block=”5″]

written by

Luis C. Medina, who you can find on Twitter at lcm1986, has been covering the Chicago Bears at Bleacher Nation since 2017. Since then, he has written about 3 head coaches, 5 play-callers, and 11 starting quarterbacks. Previously, Luis wrote about the Cubs and MLB at BN (2015-16) and worked in the Chicago Tribune sports department (2011-16). He also co-hosted a Cubs postgame show, Outside the Ivy, in 2019.

more cubs news

Justin Steele Injury Update: New Classification, MRI Tomorrow, IL Stint Coming? Steele and Counsell Speak

A significant update on Justin Steele came from Craig Counsell tonight after the Cubs extra innings loss in Texas. In short: Yes, a stint on the Injured List is likely for Justin Steele. But we still don't know how severe...

Enhanced Box Score: Rangers 4, Cubs 3 – March 28, 2024

It took exactly one day for the Cubs' ace to sustain what may be a significant injury, for their closer to blow a save, for the umpires to significantly impact the outcome of a critical play (this time in the...

OMG: Michael Busch Scored the 9th Inning, GO-AHEAD Run, Because He Just Never Stopped Running

That was absolutely incredible. To all the little kids out there, when your coach tells you to never stop running, this is why. Rookie Cubs 1B Michael Busch (the guy the Cubs got from the Dodgers this offseason to be...

Pre-Gamin’: Cubs at Rangers – Lineups, Pitching Matchup, Broadcast Info, Game Thread

*SHORT COURTS: It's Time To Bring The Home Court, Home! Looking for a unique way to celebrate your athlete or team before you peruse the FIRST CHICAGO CUBS LINEUP of the Year? Don't miss out! For just one more week...

The Cubs Are Among the Most Returning-y Teams

I am still mostly incapacitated at the moment, so apologies for the short shrift on such an otherwise blessed day. In between pokes and prods, I wanted to share a chart I saw that was pretty interesting, even if unsurprising:...

Maybe the Cubs Are the Favorites in the NL Central, After All?

ESPN was the first to throw some love the Cubs way this week, with an overwhelming majority of their writers, analysts, and editors picking the Chicago Cubs to win the NL Central in 2024. But the love doesn't end there....

The Season Begins, Love for Morel, Counsell’s Value, and Other Cubs Bullets

You know where you want to spend your Opening Day morning? The hospital! Suffice to say, this is not how I imagined getting HYPED for the Cubs' opener. I guess I'll just have to think about all the possible lineup...

Cubs vs Rangers: The First Series of the Year!

Cubs vs Rangers — THE REGULAR SEASON IS HERE! Wake up and rejoice. Later tonight, the Cubs will begin their march toward October Baseball against the (reigning World Series champion) Texas Rangers in Arlington. Justin Steele is getting the nod...

The 2024 Chicago Cubs for Dummies

Boom. We made it. The offseason is over, and the Cubs regular season - and those elevated expectations - begins tomorrow. But in case you slept through the winter, I'm here to catch you up on everything you need to...

I’m Expecting More This Year, Cubs — It’s Time to Start Winning

There's no way around it: The Chicago Cubs did *not* have the offseason we hoped they might after making Craig Counsell the highest paid manager in MLB history. Not that they did poorly, mind you. Cody Bellinger, Shota Imanaga, and...

Latest News

Rays vs. Blue Jays Probable Starting Pitchers – March 29

The Toronto Blue Jays (1-0) go on the road at Tropicana Field against the Tampa Bay Rays (0-1) at 6:50 PM ET on Friday.The Rays will look to Aaron Civale against the Blue Jays and Chris Bassitt.Rays vs. Blue Jays...

Marlins vs. Pirates Probable Starting Pitchers – March 29

The Pittsburgh Pirates (1-0) play on Friday at LoanDepot park against the Miami Marlins (0-1). The contest begins at 7:10 PM ET.The Marlins will look to Andrew Jacob Puk against the Pirates and Martin Perez.Marlins vs. Pirates Pitcher Matchup and...

Duke vs Houston Predictions and Odds: March Madness Best Bets

We have a couple of number-one seeds in March Madness action tonight including Houston (32-4) as the Cougars take on Duke (26-8). Check out the odds and more for Duke vs Houston which tips off tonight at 9:39 pm ET...

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offseason Preview: 2024 Free Agents and Team Needs

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers enjoyed a successful 2023 season, capturing their third straight NFC South title and pushing the Detroit Lions in a thrilling Divisional Round matchup. This strong showing translates to a relatively stable roster with few glaring weaknesses...

NC State vs Marquette Predictions and Odds: March Madness Best Bets

March Madness matchups bring us a great battle tonight as 11-seed NC State battles 2-seed Marquette. Check out the odds, stats, and more for NC State vs Marquette which tips off at 7:09 pm ET tonight. NC State vs Marquette...

Best NBA Prop Bets Today – Friday, March 29, 2024

Today's NBA schedule has 12 quality competitions in store. Among those games is the Minnesota Timberwolves playing the Denver Nuggets.NBA prop bets for today's games are available, so if you're interested in placing a bet or building a parlay, you'll...

Updated Elite 8 Odds: UConn Betting Favorite To Win March Madness

There were some great performances last night including a 30-point win by the UConn Huskies sending them to the Elite Eight. Are they the betting favorite to win March Madness? What team is sitting on top of the odds to...

UConn vs. Illinois Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets – NCAA Tournament Round Elite Eight

The No. 1 seed UConn Huskies (34-3) are 8.5-point favorites to advance to the Final Four when they play the No. 3 seed Illinois Fighting Illini (29-8) in the NCAA Tournament Elite Eight on Saturday at TD Garden, airing on...

Alabama vs. Clemson Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets – NCAA Tournament Round Elite Eight

The No. 4 seed Alabama Crimson Tide (24-11) and No. 6 seed Clemson Tigers (24-11) will both be vying for a spot in the NCAA Tournament Final Four when they meet on Saturday at Crypto.com Arena, tipping off at 8:49...

How to Watch UConn Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: Live Stream or on TV

The No. 1 seed UConn Huskies (34-3) will take on the No. 3 seed Illinois Fighting Illini (29-8) in the NCAA Tournament Elite Eight on Saturday at TD Garden, airing on TBS starting at 6:09 PM ET.UConn won its previous...

more cubs news